【英语国际】自相矛盾的日本：强势货币 弱势经济

Japan's economy is among the world's worst performers over the past 20 years-yet investors can't seem to get enough of its currency.

The Japanese yen has risen sharply in recent weeks versus the U.S. dollar, and now sits at its highest level since 1995.

While the U.S. economy seems to have slowed in recent months, Japan's woes have been mounting for two decades. Policy makers continue to wage a losing battle against deflation; the population is aging and in decline; and the government is struggling with a mountain of debt. The Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies, having surpassed 37000 in 1990, now hovers at about 8845.

As safe havens go, Japan would seem to be a poor choice. In a sign of troubled financial times, however, this go-nowhere economy is trumping the alternatives.

'Japan plods along-the economy isn't necessary fast, but it doesn't move that much,' said Douglas Borthwick, Managing Director of Faros Trading LLC. 'The U.S. is moving down quickly.'

Money managers and big investors are betting that, with interest rates already near zero in Japan, the famously conservative Bank of Japan won't move aggressively to loosen its monetary policy, which would weaken the yen. (Please see related article on page C2.)

The U.S. Federal Reserve, by contrast, signaled recently that it would remain an active player in U.S. debt markets. The Fed has aggressively expanded its balance sheet since the financial crisis of 2008, creating several vehicles through which to flood the banking system with fresh dollars. Its recent announcement could pave the way for more moves in the months ahead.

Speculators who are driving the yen higher may feel more 'peace of mind' because the Bank of Japan is the least likely of the major central banks to do something drastic, said Hajime Kitano, J.P. Morgan Chase's chief Japanese equities strategist.

'Buying the yen is very easy to justify because the BOJ has less room to ease its policy than the Fed,' added Jun Kato, senior manager of investment at Shinkin Asset Management.

The Bank of Japan is expected to announce some easing measures after its Sept. 6-7 policy meeting. But investors bidding up the yen expect little more than a minor tweak-not a radical policy change.

Another reason Japan is considered safe is that the vast majority of the government's debt, equivalent to 200% of gross domestic product, is in the hands of major Japanese banks and corporations. That protects the market from a flight of foreign capital that could spark a run on the yen.

By contrast, almost half of U.S. Treasurys are held by foreign investors. China and Japan are the two largest holders.

Buying the yen is 'probably one of the surest bets in the world,' said James Chirnside, director at Asia Pacific Asset Management, who expects the yen to continue to rise.

The risk is that the economy will improve enough in the U.S. for the Fed to halt or reverse its monetary-easing program, which could send interest rates sharply higher. But that scenario doesn't seem likely in the short term.

Meanwhile, professional and individual investors alike continue to chase the yen. Some aren't concerned about the reasons for the yen's rise so much as the fact that it is happening in the first place.

'Honestly, I'm not sure why the yen is rising,' said Noritaka Yoshida, a 28-year-old amateur foreign-exchange trader. 'But I'm buying it anyway because it has been rising at a quite remarkable pace in the past weeks. Buying the yen looks like a winning strategy.'

本经济是过去二十年间全世界表现最糟糕的，可投资者在持有它的货币时却好像怎么都不嫌多。

最近几周，日圆兑美元大幅上升，目前处于自1995年以来的最高水平。

虽说美国经济近几个月似乎有所放缓，可日本经济的问题已经累积了二十年。决策者继续与通货紧缩打着一场必败之仗；人口减少且陷入老龄化趋势；面对高筑的债台，政府苦于应对。日经指数在1990年就站上了37000点，如今一直在8845点附近徘徊。

若是按照避险天堂的标准，日本可能是个糟糕的选择。然而身处危机四伏的金融时代中，这个原地踏步的经济体却宣告现在有了别的选择。

Faros Trading LLC的董事总经理波斯维克(Douglas Borthwick)说，日本步伐缓慢──它的经济增长不一定要有多快，可它的变化速度没有那么快；而美国经济却在迅速下行。

基金经理和大型投资者确信，由于日本的利率已经接近于零，向来以保守闻名的日本央行(Bank of Japan)不会采取大的举动放松货币政策。货币政策放松会令日圆走软。

相比之下，美联储(Federal Reserve)最近暗示，它将继续积极参与美国债券市场的活动。自2008年金融危机爆发以来，美联储的资产负债规模大幅增长，它创造了数个工具，通过它们向银行系统注入大量美元。美联储最近的声明为今后数月采取更多举动埋下了伏笔。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)日本股票首席策略师Hajime Kitano说，推高日圆的投机者或许会觉得更加放心，因为日本央行是主要央行中最不可能作出极端举措的。

信金资产管理公司(Shinkin Asset Management)高级投资经理Jun Kato补充说，很容易解释买入日圆的合理性，因为日本央行可以松动政策的空间要比美联储小。

日本央行有望在9月6日至7日的政策会议后宣布一些宽松措施。但看涨日圆的投资者预计只会有一些微小的调整，而不会有大的政策变动。

日本被认为安全的另一个原因是，政府的绝大多数债务──相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的200%──都为日本大型银行和企业所持有。这就避免了市场出现外资撤离的情况，而外资撤离将会带动日圆下挫。

与之相比，美国财政部的几乎一半债务都为外国投资者掌握。中国和日本是其最大的两个债权国。

Asia Pacific Asset Management董事切恩赛德(James Chirnside)说，买进日圆也许是世界上最有把握的押注之一。他预计日圆将会继续走高。

风险在于美国经济改善到了一定程度后美联储将停止其放松银根的做法，甚至开始紧缩，这将大幅推高利率。不过这种情况短期内可能不会出现。

与此同时，专业投资者和个人投资者都在继续追捧日圆。有些人并不关心日圆走高的原因，只要它现在的确是在走高就行了。

28岁的业余外汇交易员Noritaka Yoshida说，老实讲，我不清楚日圆为什么在上涨，但我还是买入了日圆，因为过去几周它的上涨速度实在了得。买进日圆看起来是一招制胜的策略。