【英语国际】日本政坛枭雄小泽一郎欲登首相宝座

双语秀   2016-05-17 04:01   89   0  

2010-8-31 19:45

小艾摘要: Ichiro Ozawa has for two decades been the kingmaker of Japanese politics, never the king.Now, in the twilight of his career, the 68-year-old lawmaker has his best chance ever to become prime minister. ...
Ichiro Ozawa has for two decades been the kingmaker of Japanese politics, never the king.

Now, in the twilight of his career, the 68-year-old lawmaker has his best chance ever to become prime minister. Yet his surprise bid for the post could mean more turmoil, paralysis, and public disaffection for the dysfunctional system he has spent years pledging to fix, further undermining the government's ability to address a deepening economic mess.

'I don't think Ozawa would have run if he did not think he had a good chance to win,' said Gerald Curtis, a professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University. 'But,' he added, 'Ozawa has a history of destroying just about everything he touches, and if he stays true to form he will find a way to destroy the current ruling party' in his attempt to control it.

Mr. Ozawa shocked Japan's political world Thursday by declaring that he would run to unseat the current premier, Naoto Kan, in a Sept. 14 election as head of the Democratic Party of Japan. Because the party holds an overwhelming majority in the lower house of parliament, the winner of that contest is all but certain to be the country's next leader -- unless the battle fractures the DPJ, touching off a wave of political realignment and power struggles in parliament.

The early line from Japan's political handicappers is that the Ozawa-Kan contest is too close to call.

Hurting Mr. Ozawa's chances: He is disliked by most cabinet members and leaders of his own party, as well as the Japanese public. According to a Nippon News Network survey this week, 79% of respondents said they wouldn't support Mr. Ozawa in any top party post, while 61% said they would favor Mr. Kan's re-election. While Mr. Kan himself isn't necessarily popular, he is Japan's fifth prime minister in four years, and many Japanese don't want to see yet another change in power barely three months after Mr. Kan took over.

But the DPJ leadership post at stake next month is chosen by party members, not the public. Mr. Ozawa is widely known as the 'god of elections,' the country's most effective political strategist. His role in helping many lawmakers win their seats has earned him a loyal bloc estimated at about 150 parliament members -- or more than a third of the DPJ's governing strength -- who owe their careers to him.
泽一郎(Ichiro Ozawa)20年来一直是日本政治界的风云人物,但从未登顶首相宝座。

现在,在他事业的迟暮之际,这位68岁的国会议员有了成为首相的最佳机会。但他这一出人意料的参选举动很可能会引起他多年来试图改善的功能失常的日本政治体系更加动荡、权力被破坏、引起公众不满,进而削弱政府处理正在加剧的经济危机的能力。

哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)日本政治教授柯蒂斯(Gerald Curtis)说,我认为,小泽一郎如果认为自己没有赢的机会就不会参选。但是,他又补充说,小泽有“凡是他碰过的东西几乎都会被破坏”的历史,如果他一如既往的话,那么为了控制现任执政党,他有办法来破坏它。

小泽一郎周四宣布将会参加9月14日举行的民主党(Democratic Party of Japan)党首选举,向现任首相菅直人发起竞争。由于民主党在国会众议院占据多数地位,新党首必将出任日本新首相-除非此战导致民主党党内混乱,引发国会产生一场政治重组和权力斗争浪潮。

日本的选举预测人士早些时候的说法是,小泽一郎与菅直人两人势均力敌,结果难以预料。

对小泽参选的不利影响是:大多数内阁成员和他自己党内的领导以及日本民众都不喜欢他。据日视新闻网(Nippon News Network)本周的一个调查显示,79%的受访者说他们不会支持小泽担任任何党内高级职务,61%的受访者说他们支持菅直人连任首相。尽管菅直人本人并不那么受欢迎,他是四年内日本的第五位首相,许多日本人都不希望看到在他上任后仅仅三个月的时间里政坛再次发生变化。

但是民主党这一最重要的职位将由党内成员在下个月选举决定,而非广大民众。小泽一郎被誉为“选举之神”,是日本最有实力的政治战略家。他曾帮助许多议员获得职位,这使得他拥有了一个约150位议员的忠实支持团(占民主党执政人数的三分之一强),他们能有今天,小泽功不可没。
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