【英语国际】日本政府是否将出手干预日圆升势？

The yen marched to a fresh 15-year high against the dollar on Tuesday as investors dove for safe-haven currencies, fueling increasing anxiety within Japan about whether the government will slow the currency's powerful rally.

Before its rally stalled during U.S. trading Tuesday afternoon, the Japanese currency had reached its strongest level against the greenback since June 1995, with the dollar fetching just 83.58 yen. In late-day trading in New York, the dollar was at 84.17 yen.

This latest move means the yen has appreciated more than 10% since May 3, when the dollar fetched 94.59 yen.

Reflecting the often circular nature of the markets, swoons in stocks around the globe only reinforced the move into yen. The Japanese currency is widely perceived as a safe-haven investment, and on Tuesday traders generally dumped currencies deemed riskier -- such as emerging-market and commodity currencies -- in favor of the yen.

The yen's strength spilled over into Japan's stock market, where a selloff Tuesday sent it into bear market territory. With currency-sensitive exporters such as Sony Corp. and Nikon Corp. in the lead, the Nikkei fell 1.3% to 8995.14 on Tuesday, taking it down 20.7% from its recent peak of 11339.30 reached on April 5.

As worries grow about the impact that rising yen will have on the Japanese economy, there were fresh calls for the Japanese government to step in to slow its rise.

The higher yen makes Japanese-produced goods more costly when sold abroad. That is especially the case in comparison to exports from from China, whose currency remains closely linked to the U.S. dollar, or other Asian countries such as South Korea which have been intervening aggressively to keep their currencies from rising against the dollar. And with the Japanese domestic demand moribund, having competitive export businesses is seen as crucial to keeping the economy afloat.

'Personally, I don't like the idea of foreign exchange intervention, but the government needs to act to stop market jitters' Tokyo Stock Exchange president Atsushi Saito told reporters at a regular monthly press conference Tuesday. 'The direction of the forex market should not be determined by market forces alone,' he said.

But there were mixed signals from Japanese officials.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda called an evening news conference in which he said that the yen's sharp rise was 'one-sided.' He said that disorderly foreign exchange moves could hurt economic stability, but he avoided talk of any intervention.

Meanwhile, a meeting between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa on Monday that had been expected resulted in action on the yen's rise ended up as a phone call between the two, with no discussion halting the currency's rally.

However, a news report published during New York trading suggested the Ministry of Finance would consider intervening to sell yen should the currency continue its rise. In addition, the report from Nikkei Business Daily said the Bank of Japan is considering additional steps to ease monetary policy.

'They're understandably anxious about the implications that yen strength has on an economy that is already struggling, is battling deflation and corporate profits that are weakened by yen strength,' said Robert Lynch, currency strategist at HSBC Securities in New York.

However, Mr. Lynch noted that part of the story behind the rise in the yen has been from the dollar side of the equation as evidence continues to mount that the U.S. economy is struggling. Tuesday's brought news that existing-home sales plunged 27% in July to their lowest level in 15 years.

圆兑美元周二升至15年新高，因投资者涌入避险货币，这令日本国内越发关注政府是否将出手放缓日圆强劲升势。

在纽约汇市周二午后交易中，日圆一度升至1995年6月以来最高位，1美元仅报83.58日圆，此后日圆涨势稍停。纽约汇市尾盘交易中，1美元报84.17日圆。

这一走势意味着日圆自5月3日以来累计升值逾10%，5月3日1美元报94.59日圆。

全球股市跌势加剧了资金流向日圆，这体现了市场循环的本质。人们普遍认为日圆是避险投资，周二交易员大多抛售了被认为高风险的货币，比如新兴市场和大宗商品市场货币，转而买入日圆。

日圆走强的影响波及日本股市，周二抛盘令日本股市跌至熊市区域。对汇率敏感的出口企业如索尼（Sony Corp. ）和尼康（Nikon Corp.）领跌大盘，周二日经指数下挫1.3%，报收于8,995.14点，较4月5日触及的近期高位11,339.30点累计跌20.7%。

由于担心日圆升值对日本经济的影响，有人最新呼吁日本政府采取措施放缓日圆升势。

日圆升值使日本制造产品在销往海外时更加昂贵，跟中国及韩国等亚洲其他国家出口产品比较，情况更是如此。人民币仍与美元联系紧密，韩国等国政府则积极干预汇市，阻止本币兑美元上涨。由于日本内需不旺，人们认为具有竞争力的出口企业是使日本经济维持下去的关键。

东京证券交易所（Tokyo Stock Exchange）总裁齐藤敦（Atsushi Saito）周二在例行月度新闻发布会上表示，他个人并不欣赏干预汇率的想法，但政府需要采取行动，缓解市场的忧虑。汇市走势不应只由市场力量决定。

但日本官方发出的信号各不相同。

日本财务大臣野田佳彦（Yoshihiko Noda）召开了晚间新闻发布会，会上他说，日圆急剧升值是“单边的”。他说，汇市无序波动可能将损害经济稳定，但他没有提及干预汇市。

与此同时，周一日本首相菅直人（Naoto Kan）与日本央行行长白川方明（Masaaki Shirakawa）举行了会谈，此前人们普遍预计其结果将是对日圆升值采取行动，但结果只是两人打了个电话，而其间没有谈及阻止日圆升势。

但在纽约交易时段发布的一则新闻报导暗示，如果日圆持续上涨，日本财务省将考虑干预汇市，卖出日圆。另外《日本经济新闻》（Nikkei Business Daily）还报导称，日本央行正在考虑采取更多措施来放宽货币政策。

汇丰证券驻纽约外汇策略师林奇（Robert Lynch）说，他们担忧日圆升值对日本经济和公司利润的影响，这是可以理解的，日本经济已经处于困境之中，正在对抗通缩，而公司利润也因日圆走强而受到打压。

但林奇强调，日圆上涨的部分原因是来自美元方面，因美国经济举步维艰的证据越来越多。周二新闻显示，美国7月成屋销售大跌27%，至15年来最低水平。