【英语国际】金正日意外访华

Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s reclusive leader, has travelled to China just weeks ahead of a meeting in Pyongyang that is expected to decide his successor.

China is North Korea’s largest source of aid and only real ally and Mr Kim would like Beijing’s seal of approval to smooth the ascendance of his son to the top position in the secretive communist hierarchy.

Speculation over who will succeed Mr Kim has mounted since he reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008. A deterioration in relations with the west and in particular South Korea and the US in recent months has heightened debate over who will take control in the nuclear-armed country.

Unconfirmed reports -suggested Mr Kim was accompanied by heir-apparent Kim Jong-un on the visit, which is also expected to address calls for emergency food aid after floods hit the western parts of the impoverished state this summer.

The surprise visit comes less than two weeks ahead of a big gathering of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, in which Kim Jong-un is likely to be officially designated as the ailing leader’s successor.

“He appears to have rushed to China to seek emergency food aid and other financial aid as the damage from recent floods looks quite serious,” said Cheong Seong-chang, researcher at Sejong Institute in Seoul. “He needs to appease public sentiment with food and other assistance ahead of the key labour party meeting next month.”

Beijing would provide emergency relief to help the recovery after floods hit the North Pyongyang province, North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said.

Mr Kim’s visit to China comes after former US President Jimmy Carter flew into Pyongyang on Wednesday to secure the release of a US citizen imprisoned for illegally entering the country. Mr Carter met Kim Yong-nam, the country’s number two leader, said the KCNA.

Ties between the two countries have become increasingly strained as China has integrated into the world while North Korea has become even more isolated – building its army and developing nuclear weapons.

Trade between the two countries fell 4 per cent last year from a year earlier to $2.7bn, according to Chinese statistics. That compared with bilateral trade worth $156.2bn between China and South Korea last year.

“There must have been some urgent reasons for this trip such as securing Beijing’s support for his succession plans as the regime feels more insecure amid increasing external pressure,” said Cho Myung-chul, researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

极少露面的朝鲜领导人金正日(Kim Jong-il)目前正在中国访问。不到两周后，朝鲜将在平壤召开会议，预计将决定其继承人。

中国是朝鲜最大的援助来源国，也是唯一真正意义上的同盟国，因此，金正日希望得到北京方面的认可，为其子顺利登上隐秘的共产党统治结构顶端铺平道路。

据报道，金正日曾在2008年中风，此后，有关谁会继承其位的猜测便不断加剧。朝鲜与西方关系的恶化，尤其是近几个月与韩国和美国关系恶化，更加剧了外界关于谁会接管这个核武国家的辩论。

据未经证实的报道称，金正日之子、最有可能继承位置的金正云(Kim Jong-un)也一同访华。预计金正日还会借此次访华，向中国要求紧急粮食援助——今年夏天，这个穷困国家的西部地区遭受了洪水袭击。

此次意外访华，距离朝鲜劳动党召开大型集会不到两周时间。在此次会议上，金正云可能会被正式指定为患病的金正日的继承人。

首尔世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究员郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示：“金正日似乎是匆忙前往中国，寻求紧急粮食援助及其它财务援助，近来洪水造成的损害看上去相当严重。他必须在下月关键的劳动党会议召开之前，用粮食及其它援助来安抚公众情绪。”

朝鲜中央通讯社(KCNA)表示，北京方面将提供紧急救援，帮助遭受洪水袭击的北平壤省恢复经济。

金正日访华之前，美国前总统吉米?卡特(Jimmy Carter)于周三飞抵平壤，试图说服朝鲜释放一名因非法进入朝鲜而被关押的美国公民。据朝鲜中央通讯社称，卡特与朝鲜二号领导人金永南(Kim Yong Nam)会面。

随着中国融入整个世界，而朝鲜愈发孤立（穷兵黩武，还开发核武器），两国关系变得越来越紧张。

根据中国的统计数据，去年，两国贸易总额同比下降4%，至27亿美元。相比之下，去年中国和韩国之间的双边贸易总额为1562亿美元。

韩国对外经济政策研究院的研究员赵铭哲（Cho Myung-chul，音译）表示：“此次访华必然有一些紧急原因，如获得北京方面对其继承人计划的支持——随着外部压力逐渐加大，该国领导人的不安全感加重。”

译者/何黎