【英语国际】新加坡博彩业有望在2012年前赶超拉斯维加斯

Singapore's nascent casino sector could rival that of the troubled Las Vegas strip in the next two years as Asian gamblers opt for the newer gaming offerings closer to home over the traditional casino center.

Forecasters are already looking to upgrade their expectations for the industry following better-than-expected second-quarter results for Genting Singapore's (G13.SG) Resorts World Sentosa, one of two casino-resorts in the city state.

Singapore opened its doors to gamblers earlier this year with two gaming and leisure resorts as the government looked to diversify its sources of economic revenue.

Genting Singapore, a unit of Malaysian-listed Genting Bhd. (3192.KU), last week reported S$860.8 million (US$633 million) in earnings for its US$4.4 billion Resorts World Sentosa complex for the second quarter, the first full quarter of operations for the resort. While Genting has not disclosed how much of this is derived from gambling operations, analysts estimate this to be about 70% to 90%.

These figures beat market expectations of about S$630 million and, while it's early days, suggest a much larger-than-expected gaming market with many of the casinos' facilities yet to come on line.

Genting Singapore opened the casino at its resort complex in mid-February with rival Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) following with its US$5.5 billion Marina Bay Sands resort in late April.

The combined daily winnings of both casinos in the second quarter alone suggest an annualized Singapore market of US$4.0 billion.

'It's just proof that if you build it they will come and in Singapore they built two products that are worthy of that title,' says Andy Nazarechuk, Dean of University of Nevada Las Vegas' Singapore campus.

'Las Vegas will continue to attract (Asian visitors) but instead of the player making two or three trips to Las Vegas in the year they may make only one trip and the other two trips may be more closer regionally.'

Las Vegas-based gaming consultancy Galaviz & Company has relatively conservative forecasts for actual earnings in Singapore of US$3.5 billion in 2011 and projects the Las Vegas strip will earn US$5.8 billion, a modest improvement on the US$5.1 billion expected in 2010.

However, some among the investment community believe the Singapore market will approach the sorts of numbers Galaviz expects for the Las Vegas strip, which accounts for about half of the state of Nevada's gaming revenue, by 2012.

Aaron Fischer of CLSA has some of the more bullish forecasts, expecting the combined gaming revenues of both Singapore resorts to generate US$5.1 billion in 2011, up from his previous estimate of US$3.9 billion. Goldman Sachs also expects the sector could bring in US$5 billion in 2011.

'The appetite for gambling in Asia is significantly higher than it is outside of Asia,' Fischer said.

CLSA has lifted the target price for Genting Singapore's stock to S$2.00 from S$1.30, and says the price could get up to S$3.00 as tourist arrivals increase and more tables, hotel rooms and retail outlets open at the resort in 2011.

A key turning point for the global casino sector took place in 2006 when Macau gaming revenue beat that of the Las Vegas strip.

There now appears little in that contest with Macau earnings expected to hit US$27.5 billion by 2011, according to CLSA.

However, Fischer says there are policy risks for Singapore's gaming sector.

'There's one big risk and that's at some point the government is going to work out that the market has become too big and there ends up being a lot of social problems in regards to gaming--I think the lag on that is two or three years,' Fischer said.

未来两年，新加坡新生的博彩业可能将对美国拉斯维加斯构成挑战，因为亚洲赌客会选择离家更近、建得更晚的新加坡赌场，而不再愿意前往拉斯维加斯这个陷入困境的传统博彩业中心。

Reuters新加坡滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands)度假村赌场内，一名赌场工作人员正在等待赌客。新加坡两个赌场之一圣淘沙名胜世界(Resorts World Sentosa)高于预期的二季度业绩公布之后，预测人士已经在打算提高他们对整个行业的预测。圣淘沙为云顶新加坡 (Genting Singapore)旗下的公司。

新加坡在今年早些时候开放两处博彩与休闲胜地，接纳赌客。政府希望借此分散这个城市国家的收入来源。

云顶新加坡是马来西亚上市公司云顶集团(Genting Bhd.)的子公司，上星期发布的财报显示，旗下总投资44亿美元的圣淘沙名胜世界在第二季度录得利润8.608亿新加坡元，折合6.33亿美元。今年二季度是圣淘沙第一个完全营业的季度。云顶新加坡没有披露这些利润有多少来自博彩业务，但分析人士估计这个比例在70%到90%之间。

数字高于市场约6.3亿新加坡元的预期。虽然还不到下定论的时候，但在两个赌场还有很多设施尚未开放的情况下，它说明新加坡博彩市场比人们预想的要大得多。

云顶新加坡于2月中旬在其综合度假村内开放了这座赌场。随后在4月下旬，竞争对手拉斯维加斯金沙集团股份有限公司(Las Vegas Sands Corp.)开放了总投资55亿美元的滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands)度假村。

以两座赌场在第二季度的每日利润来看，新加坡博彩市场的年营业额在40亿美元的水平。

内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校(University of Nevada, Las Vegas)新加坡校区负责人纳泽雷库(Andy Nazarechuk)说，它不过是证明，只要你把赌场建好，赌客就会过来，而在新加坡，他们建了两座名符其实的赌场。

他说，拉斯维加斯将继续吸引亚洲的赌客，但这些人可能不再是一年前往拉斯维加斯两三次，而可能是只去那里一次，剩下两次去往更近的地区。

总部位于拉斯维加斯的博彩业咨询公司Galaviz & Company对新加坡博彩业2011年利润的预测较为保守，认为实际只有35亿美元，而它预计拉斯维加斯博彩业的利润会达到58亿美元，略高于51亿美元的2010年预期利润。

但投资界一些人认为，在2012年结束之前，新加坡的市场规模将接近Galaviz公司对拉斯维加斯的预测。拉斯维加斯博彩业收入约占内华达州博彩业收入的一半。

里昂证券(CLSA)的费舍尔(Aaron Fischer)更为乐观，他预计2011年新加坡两个赌场的博彩业务收入加在一起将达到51亿美元，超过他此前预测的39亿美元。高盛(Goldman Sachs)也预计新加坡博彩业2011年的收入将达到50亿美元。

费舍尔说，亚洲的赌博需求明显高于其他地区。

里昂证券已将云顶新加坡的目标股价从1.30新加坡元上调至2.00新加坡元。它说，随着游客数量的增加，2011年度假村内更多赌桌、客房和零售店的开业，云顶新加坡的股价有可能达到3.00新加坡元。

2006年，澳门博彩业收入超过拉斯维加斯，世界博彩业发生了重要转折。

据里昂证券预测，2011年之前澳门博彩业利润将达到275亿美元。拉斯维加斯似乎已经无法与澳门抗衡。

但费舍尔说，新加坡博彩业存在政策风险。

费舍尔说，有一个重大风险，那就是到某个时候政府会觉得市场已经过大，大量与赌博有关的社会问题最后将会涌现──我认为这个时候会是在两到三年以后。