【英语国际】旱情加大世界对美国小麦的依赖性

The drought decimating Russia's grain crop is helping put more money into the pockets of U.S. farmers and leaving the world more dependent on the U.S. harvest.

The U.S. Agriculture Department said Thursday it expects U.S. wheat exports to soar 36% amid higher prices, and in a rare move raised its one-month-old harvest forecasts and price forecasts for several major U.S. crops, including wheat, corn, and soybeans at the same time.

'The U.S. is an island of supply in a year of very big demand,' said Daniel W. Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern.

Higher prices for these commodities could end up driving up food prices for recession-weary consumers.

The USDA said that based on Aug. 1 conditions it expects U.S. farmers to harvest a record 13.4 billion bushels of corn in the next few months, up 1.9% from the record 2009 harvest, and yet reap $3.80 cents a bushel, give or take 30 cents. The $3.80 midpoint is 7% higher than last year.

'Crop revenues look to be much improved with record crops and generally higher prices than we anticipated earlier this year,' said Joseph Glauber, the USDA's chief economist.

In the wake of the USDA's wheat export forecast, the wheat futures contract for September delivery at the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 18.25 cents a bushel Thursday to settle at $7.13 a bushel, up 56% from two months ago.

While the USDA's report highlighted the opportunity for U.S. farmers to fill at least some of the gap created by problems elsewhere, it also means the global food supply-and prices-are even more vulnerable if U.S. crops encounter their own weather or other troubles.

'The pressure is on us to produce this corn,' said Peter Meyer, an agriculture products specialist at J.P. Morgan Chase. 'This year's corn mightn't be as good as we think.'

Rising wheat prices are beginning to send a chill down the spines of food executives, who were baffled by gyrating commodity prices in 2007 and 2008.

The drought gripping the Black Sea region is having a broad impact on grain prices in part because Russia and its neighbors in recent years have emerged as major rivals of wheat exporting nations such as the U.S., Australia and Canada. Wheat is not only used to make food but in rations for livestock, which could increase demand for crops such as corn.

The USDA estimated Thursday that Russian wheat production is plunging 27% from last year to 45 million metric tons. The USDA expects Russia to export just three million metric tons of its new crop, compared with the 18.5 million metric tons it exported from last year's harvests.

The stubborn drought-which is also cutting the wheat exports of neighboring Ukraine and Kazakhstan and forced Moscow to ban wheat exports until Dec. 31-is clearing the way for U.S. wheat exports to climb to 1.2 billion bushels from 881 million bushels during the year that ended May 31, according to the USDA.

Thursday's forecast of a record corn crop largely reflects favorable growing conditions earlier in the year. But an unusual combination recently of hot and wet weather in some Midwest areas also highlights the risk that the harvest could fall short of the USDA prediction of a record 165 bushels per acre.

俄罗斯干旱令谷类作物大量减产，这不仅将让更多的钱落入美国农民口袋，也让世界更加依赖于美国的收成。

美国农业部周四说，由于小麦价格高企，它预计美国小麦出口将大幅增加36%，该部还罕见地同时上调了它对小麦、玉米、大豆等好几种美国主要农作物的收成预期和价格预期。

芝加哥大宗商品预测机构AgResource Co.的总裁贝斯(Daniel W. Basse)说，在需求极其旺盛的今年，美国是唯一可以依赖的供应地。

对遭受了经济衰退打击的美国消费者来说，这些大宗商品的价格出现上扬最终可能会推高食品价格。

美国农业部说，基于8月1日的情况，它预计美国农民在今后几个月中将收获创纪录的134亿蒲式耳玉米，比大丰收的2009年还多1.9%，售价将为每蒲式耳3.80美元，上下误差30美分。3.80美元的中值比去年高7%。

美国农业部首席经济学家克劳伯(Joseph Glauber)说，玉米收入看起来将会大大增加，因为不仅收获量前所未有，价格也普遍比我们年初时预计的要高。

农业部公布其小麦出口预期后，周四在芝加哥商品交易所，9月份交割的小麦期货每蒲式耳上涨18.25美分，结算价报每蒲式耳7.13美元，比两个月前上涨56%。

虽然农业部的报告凸显出美国农民至少有机会一定程度上弥补因其他国家的种种问题造成的供应缺口，但它也意味着一旦美国农作物也遇到天气问题或是其他麻烦，全球食品供应及价格体系将变得更加脆弱。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的农产品专家梅耶(Peter Meyer)说，现在生产小麦的责任压在了美国肩上。他说，美国今年的玉米收成可能不像我们想像的那样好。

小麦价格的上涨使食品企业的高管们开始感到背后一阵发凉，大宗商品价格在2007年和2008年的螺旋式上涨已经令他们头疼过了。

蔓延在黑海地区的干旱正对谷物价格产生广泛影响，部分原因是俄罗斯及其邻国近几年来已成为美国、澳大利亚和加拿大等小麦输出国的主要竞争对手。小麦不仅用于生产食品，还用于喂养牲畜，小麦短缺有可能增加市场对玉米等农作物的需求。

美国农业部周四预测俄罗斯的小麦产量将较去年减少27%，降至4,500万吨。它还预计俄罗斯新收玉米中将仅有300万吨出口，而俄罗斯去年的玉米出口量为1,850万吨。

严重的干旱不但令乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦减少了小麦出口，更迫使俄罗斯禁止在12月31日前出口小麦。据美国农业部说，这次旱情将推动美国小麦出口量在截至5月31日的年份中由上年的8.81亿蒲式耳升至12亿蒲式耳。

美国农业部周四之所以预测美国今年的玉米收获量将达创纪录水平，很大程度上是基于美国今年早些时候有利的农作物生长条件。不过美国中西部一些地区近日反常的闷热潮湿天气也意味着，美国今年的玉米收成可能达不到农业部预计的每英亩165蒲式耳的创纪录水平。