【英语国际】关于美国企业的最大谎言

You may have heard recently that U.S. companies have emerged from the financial crisis in robust health, that they've paid down their debts, rebuilt their balance sheets and are sitting on growing piles of cash they are ready to invest in the economy.

You could hear this great news pretty much anywhere -- maybe from Bloomberg, which this spring hailed the 'surprising strength' of corporate balance sheets. Or perhaps in the Washington Post, where Fareed Zakaria reported that top companies 'have accumulated an astonishing $1.8 trillion of cash,' leaving them in the best shape, by some measures, 'in almost half a century.'

Or you heard it from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, who recently said companies were 'hoarding cash' but were afraid to start investing. Or on CNBC, where experts have been debating what these corporations are going to do with all their surplus loot. Will they raise dividends? Buy back shares? Launch a new wave of mergers and acquisitions?

It all sounds wonderful for investors and the U.S. economy. There's just one problem: It's a crock.

American companies are not in robust financial shape. Federal Reserve data show that their debts have been rising, not falling. By some measures, they are now more leveraged than at any time since the Great Depression.

You'd think someone might have noticed something amiss. After all, we were simultaneously being told that companies (a) had more money than they know what to do with; (b) had even more money coming in due to a surge in profits; yet (c) they have been out in the bond market borrowing as fast as they can.

Does that sound a little odd to you?

A look at the facts shows that companies only have 'record amounts of cash' in the way that Subprime Suzy was flush with cash after that big refi back in 2005. So long as you don't look at the liabilities, the picture looks great. Hey, why not buy a Jacuzzi?

According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial firms borrowed another $289 billion in the first quarter, taking their total domestic debts to $7.2 trillion, the highest level ever. That's up by $1.1 trillion since the first quarter of 2007; it's twice the level seen in the late 1990s.

The debt repayments made during the financial crisis were brief and minimal: tiny amounts, totaling about $100 billion, in the second and fourth quarters of 2009.

Remember that these are the debts for the nonfinancials -- the part of the economy that's supposed to be in better shape. The banks? Everybody knows half of them are the walking dead.

Central bank and Commerce Department data reveal that gross domestic debts of nonfinancial corporations now amount to 50% of GDP. That's a postwar record. In 1945, it was just 20%. Even at the credit-bubble peaks in the late 1980s and 2005-06, it was only around 45%.

The Fed data 'underline the poor state of the U.S. private sector's balance sheets,' reports financial analyst Andrew Smithers, who's also the author of 'Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers,' and chairman of Smithers & Co. in London.

'While this is generally recognized for households,' he said, 'it is often denied with regard to corporations. These denials are without merit and depend on looking at cash assets and ignoring liabilities. Cash assets have risen recently, in response to the fall in inventories, but nonfinancials' corporate debt, whether measured gross or after netting off bank deposits and other interest-bearing assets, is at peak levels.'

By Smithers' analysis, net leverage is nearly 50% of corporate net worth, a modern record.

There is one caveat to this, he noted: It focuses on assets and liabilities of companies within the United States. Some U.S. companies are holding net cash overseas. That may brighten the picture a little, but the overall effect is not enormous, and mostly just affects the biggest companies.

That U.S. companies are in worse financial shape than we're being told is clearly bad news for those thinking of investing in U.S. stocks or bonds, as leverage makes investments riskier. Clearly it's bad news for jobs and the economy.

But why is this line being spun about healthy balance sheets? For the same reason we're told other lies, myths and half-truths: Too many people have a vested interest in spinning, and too few have an interest in the actual picture.

Journalists, for example, seek safety in numbers; there's a herd mentality. Once a line starts to get repeated, others just assume it's correct and join in.

Wall Street? It's a hustle. This healthy balance-sheet myth helps sell stocks and bonds. How many bonuses do you think get paid for telling customers the stark facts, and how many get paid for making the sale?

You can also blame our partisan age too. Right now, people on the right have a vested interest in claiming businesses are in healthy shape. That makes the saintly private sector look good, and demonizes President Barack Obama and Big Government for scaring away investment. Vote Republican! Meanwhile, people on the left have an interest in making businesses sound really healthy too: If greedy companies are hoarding cash instead of hiring people, they can cry 'Shame on them! Vote Democratic!'

As ever, the truth is someone else's problem and no one's responsibility.

When it comes to the economy, let's just hope the public is too hopped up on painkillers and antidepressants to notice. If they knew what was really going on, there'd be trouble.

你最近可能听说美国企业以稳健的状态走出了金融危机的阴影，他们偿付了债务，重建了资产负债表，坐拥越来越多的现金，他们正准备向经济投资。

到处你都能得到好消息，可能是来自彭博新闻社（Bloomberg），今年春天该新闻社欢呼企业财务状况“令人惊讶地强劲”。或者是来自《华盛顿邮报》，萨卡利亚（Fareed Zakaria）报导说，大型企业“累积了令人惊讶的1.8万亿美元资金”，按一些衡量方法计算，这些大型企业目前处于近50年来最佳状态。

或者你是听达拉斯联邦储备银行行长费希尔（Richard Fisher）说的，近期他表示，企业正在积累着资金，但害怕开始投资。或是你听了CNBC的报导，专家们在这里讨论这些企业用盈余要做什么，他们将提高股息？买回股票？还是进行新的并购？

听起来这对投资者和美国经济都很好。但是只有一个问题：这都是胡说八道。

美国企业财务状况并不好。美联储（Federal Reserve）公布的数据显示，企业债务在上升，而不是下降。按一些衡量标准计算，他们目前的负债水平比大萧条以来任何时期都高。

你会认为有人可能已经注意到出了差错。毕竟关于公司状况，我们同时被告知(a)拥有多于他们知道该怎么处理的资金；(b)由于获利增长，未来将拥有更多资金；(c)他们公开进入债市，以尽可能快的速度借贷。

这让你听起来有点奇怪吧？

事实显示，公司拥有的“创纪录的现金量”只是与次贷产品在2005年进行大型再融资后获得的现金一样多。只要不看负债，情况就很好，那怎么不买个极可意水流按摩浴缸呢？

根据美联储数据，第一季度非金融机构借入2890亿美元，国内总债务达到7.2万亿美元，为迄今最高。自2007年第一季度以来增长了1.1万亿美元，是20世纪90年代末的两倍。

金融危机期间企业只短暂偿付了极少债务：2009年第二和第四季度企业共计偿付约1000亿美元债务，数额相当少。

请记住这些是非金融机构的债务，人们认为非金融机构是经济中状况较好的一部分。那么银行呢？人人都知道其中一半都已是行尸走肉。

美联储和商务部数据显示，非金融机构的国内总债务目前相当于国内生产总值（GDP）的50%，创下了战后纪录。1945年比重仅为20%。即使在上世纪80年代末和2005-06年的信贷泡沫高峰期间，都只大约相当于45%。

金融分析师史密瑟斯（Andrew Smithers）在报告中写道，美联储数据“凸显美国民间企业财务状况较差”。 史密瑟斯是伦敦Smithers & Co.的董事长，并且是《重估华尔街：不完美的市场和无能的央行行长》（Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers）一书的作者。

他说，尽管人们通常认为家庭是这样，企业不是这样。但这些否认是毫无价值的，因为只看到现金资产，而忽略了负债。由于库存下降，近来现金资产不断上升，但非金融机构的公司债，无论是以总额算，还是扣除银行储蓄和其他附息资产后，公司债都处于较高水平。


按照史密瑟斯的分析，净杠杆率几乎是公司净资产的50%，创下了现代纪录。

对这点他有一个警告，他提醒说：这关注的是美国境内企业的资产和负债。一些美国企业在海外拥有净现金。这可能使前景更亮丽一些，但整体效果不大，多数只对最大型企业有影响。

美国企业所处的财务境况比我们得知的更糟糕，对于那些想投资美国股市或债市的人来说明显是个坏消息，因负债使投资风险更大。显然这对就业和经济来说都是坏消息。

但是为什么要对良好的财务状况王顾左右而言他呢？出于同样的原因，我们被告知其他谎话、神话和半真半假的话：太多人对于绕弯子有着既定兴趣，而太少的人对真实情况感兴趣。

例如记者会寻求数据的安全性，有一种从众心理，一旦重复一句话，其他人就认为它是正确的，并会复制。

那么华尔街呢？在这里只是欺骗的手段。良好的财务神话可以帮助销售股票和债券。在告诉客户铁的事实后，你认为他们将得到多少奖金呢？而销售股票和债券又会得到多少奖金呢？

你也可能会归因于党派分歧。目前右翼在声称企业处于良好状态时有着既得利益，这使得神圣的私营企业看起来不错，并妖魔化奥巴马总统和政府，说他们吓退了投资。那么投共和党一票吧！而左翼也乐于让企业听起来不错：如果贪婪的企业积累资金，而不是聘用员工，他们就会高喊：可耻！投民主党一票！

就像以往一样，真理是别人的问题，没人会负责。

说到经济的时候，我们只是希望公众依赖止痛药和抗抑郁剂麻醉自己，而不去注意事实，如果他们知道真正在发生什么，就有麻烦了。