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2010-8-10 00:10
In case you weren't paying attention, something big happened over the past few weeks.
I'm not talking about Lindsay Lohan's early release from the Los Angeles County lock-up yesterday. But it does involve someone who did stupid things getting out of jail. That someone happens to be you - as in you and me, the American people. For the past two years, we've been scarred and scared, imprisoned in our fears and an awful economy. We lived beyond our means. We paid the price. This recession has been a terrible and wrathful one. In the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP fell a staggering 6.8%. But the way things have been going over the past month suggests we may finally be stepping out of the prison gates and back into the glaring sunlight. Could it be that America is free at last? These kinds of collective turning points are obvious only in hindsight. But consider the following. July started just like the other 21 post-Lehman months. The world was coming to an end. The S&P500 index hit its 2010 low just before the Fourth of July weekend. But 30-something days later - and we're still here. The European 'crisis' is no longer a crisis. The Gulf oil 'crisis' is no longer a crisis. And the biggest crisis in Washington appears to be the firing of a USDA official. The point isn't that we are prospering. We're not. Over 20 million Americans are still jobless. It will take years for our economy to rehabilitate itself. But this is the summer, we stopped panicking. We're more comfortable with our discomfort, more certain of our uncertainties. Take housing. No one in America, except a few greedy homebuilders, actually expect a housing rebound anymore. On July 20th, when June new home starts revealed yet another precipitous drop, the Dow closed up 60 points. Or new car sales. The days of the 17 million annual sales rate are kaput. GM sales rose just 5% from a miserable 2009, which was seen as a victory for Detroit. And that's because we're finally - finally! - coming to terms with the harsh reality we created for ourselves. We spent more than we earned, bought things we couldn't afford and built things we didn't need. We lived off our neighbors, off our grandchildren and off the promises of politicians who said what we wanted to hear. So it's a good sign that the $14 trillion national debt is now one of the public's top concerns, according to a recent Gallup poll. It's a good sign the U.S. personal savings rate is now running at over 6% after flatlining for years. And it's a good sign that once-untouchable Washington wheeler-dealers like Representative Maxine Waters and Charlie Rangel will face a public trial for alleged ethical violations. Only time will tell whether America can fully reform its ways. But I take comfort in the recent rise of two politicians: Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Ryan has bravely drawn up a 'Roadmap for America's Future' that would turn our nation's beloved, but insolvent entitlement programs upside down. We all know the retirement age has to hit 70. Only Ryan has the guts to say it. And now Christie is taking on New Jersey's teachers unions, privatizing hospitals and parks and vowing to 'treat the people of New Jersey like adults.' At long last, we have two elected officials who are willing to be unpopular, to say the things we don't want to hear and do the things we're afraid to have done. The truth is a great thing. In fact, as the summer of 2010 is proving, it's the only thing that will set us free. Now if we can just put Lindsay Lohan back in jail. 倘若你没注意到的话,我可以给你提个醒儿,过去几周里发生了一件大事。
我说的不是林赛•罗韩(Lindsay Lohan)从洛杉矶县监狱提前获释。不过,此事确实涉及到某个做了傻事的人出狱的桥段。 这个某人正是你我这样的美国大众。 过去两年来,我们伤痕累累、担惊受怕,被关进了恐惧害怕和糟糕经济的囚笼。我们入不敷出。我们付出了代价。 此次衰退让人又怕又气。2008年四季度,美国国内生产总值(GDP)下降了令人震惊的6.8%。 不过,过去一个月的情况表明,我们或许终于开始踏出牢笼大门,重沐灿烂阳光。 美国终于自由了吗? 一系列此类转折点只有在回首时才一目了然。不过,想想下面这些问题。 7月份开始的时候和雷曼兄弟破产后的其他21个月一模一样。世界正走向尽头。就在7月4日美国国庆周末前,标准普尔500指数触及了2010年的低点。 不过,30多天之后,我们还活的好好的。欧洲危机不再是危机。墨西哥湾漏油危机不再是危机。华盛顿的最大危机似乎仅仅是解雇一名农业部的官员。 这并不是说我们的日子开始蒸蒸日上。不是。有2,000多万美国人仍没有工作。美国经济要恢复健康还要数年的时间。 不过,就在这个夏季,我们不再惊慌失措。我们对自己的不安更能泰然处之,对世界的变化无常更加确定无疑。 以楼市为例。在美国,除去少数贪婪的房屋建筑商之外,实际上没有人还指望楼市会反弹。7月20日公布的数据显示,6月份新屋开工数继续大幅下滑,当日道琼斯指数收盘却涨了60点。 再看看新车销售情况。每年销售1,700万辆汽车的日子一去不复返了。2009年,通用汽车(GM)销售情况惨淡,2010年仅增长了5%,即使这样也算是底特律三大汽车生产商的一场胜利了。 这是因为我们终于、终于开始正视残酷的现实了,这是我们自作自受。 我们花的多、赚的少,买些负担不起的东西,造些不需要的东西。我们靠邻居、儿孙和那些花言巧语的政客的承诺为生。 据盖洛普(Gallup)最近的一项调查,14万亿美元的国债现在成了公众最担心的问题之一,这是一个好迹象。 美国的个人储蓄率在多年的低迷之后如今在6%以上,这也是一个好迹象。 众议员沃特斯(Maxine Waters)和兰格尔(Charlie Rangel)等曾经高不可攀、为所欲为的华盛顿官员将因涉嫌违反道德规范而面临公开审判,还是一个好迹象。 只有时间才能证明美国是否能够彻底改变自己的习惯。不过,我对最近两位政界人士的冉冉升起感到欣慰:威斯康星州众议员雷恩(Paul Ryan)和新泽西州州长克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)。 雷恩勇敢地提出了“美国未来路线图”,它将颠覆美国所锺爱的、但难以为继的退休福利计划。我们都知道必须将退休年龄定在70岁。只有雷恩有胆量说破。 如今,克里斯蒂开始挑战新泽西州的教师工会,将医院和公园私有化,并承诺要“像对待成年人一样对待新泽西州人”。 我们终于有了两位不惜遭人白眼的当选官员,他们说出了我们不想听的话,做了我们害怕做的事。 事实是伟大的。实际上,正如2010年夏季所证明的,只有事实才能让我们获得自由。 现在就看我们如何把林赛•罗韩重新关进监狱了。 |