【英语国际】美国企业盈利增幅为何能胜于整体经济？

Weak economy, strong profits? Not as strange as it sounds.

Gross-domestic-product figures due Friday are expected to paint a disappointing picture of U.S. economic performance. Second-quarter GDP is likely to show growth roughly in line with the first quarter's 2.7% annualized pace, an unusually weak result for this stage of recovery.

Investors may find that hard to square with what is shaping up to be a decent run for corporate profits. Second-quarter earnings among S&P 500 companies are on track to post 35% growth over the year-earlier period.

But the seemingly contradictory developments aren't as inconsistent as they might at first appear.

For one, the disparity partly reflects the way the figures are presented. GDP growth, which is seasonally adjusted, is usually reported on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Corporate profits, which can be highly seasonal, are typically expressed in year-on-year terms. When GDP growth is viewed on an annual basis, the story is more consistent: Growth turned positive in the fourth quarter, the same time S&P 500 earnings growth resumed after nine quarters of declines.

Meanwhile, earnings figures have been sharply inflated by the rebound in profits from financial firms following their spectacular collapse during the crisis. For example, the 205% leap in fourth-quarter earnings was a gain of only 17.5% excluding financials, according to Thomson Reuters. And revenues over the same period increased by just 2.9%, excluding financials.

Revenue growth among S&P 500 companies is today higher, so far up 11.6% in the second quarter from a year ago, excluding financials. In contrast, Friday's report is expected to show year-on-year GDP growth of only 3.2%. But companies often rebound quicker than the overall economy. For consumers and governments to rebuild balance sheets and start spending again is a much lengthier, and painful, process.

Companies' global exposure also plays a role. About half of S&P 500 revenues comes from foreign countries, according to OppenheimerFunds. Meanwhile, exports account for only about a tenth of U.S. GDP.

The apparent paradox of a sluggish U.S. economy coinciding with strong corporate profits won't last forever. But, with companies still very disciplined on costs, it isn't something for investors to get too worried about just yet.

将于周五发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据预计将绘制出美国经济表现令人失望的景象。第二季度的GDP增速大致将与第一季度2.7%的年化增速保持一致。本阶段的经济复苏出现了不同寻常的疲软结果。

由于企业利润还算令人满意，投资者或许认为二者难以匹配。标准普尔500(S&P 500)公司的第二季度收益预计同比增长35%。

乍一看，这种发展态势似乎相互矛盾，但实际并非如此。

首先，这种不一致在一定程度上反映出数据呈现方式的不同。按季节调整的GDP通常基于季度环比方式进行报告。而季节性有可能很强的企业利润则通常基于逐年同比方式报告。若以年化基准衡量GDP增长，这两组数据会更加一致：去年第四季度，GDP增长呈良好态势，同期标普500公司收益率在下滑九个季度之后重新开始增长。

与此同时，金融公司的利润在经济危机期间一泻千里之后出现反弹，这也使得收益数据大幅增长。例如，汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)称，第四季度的收益率增长205%，但如果不算金融公司，其增长率仅为17.5%，同期的GDP增长率也仅为2.9%。

如今，标普500公司的收入增长率更高。到目前为止，不算金融公司，其第二季度同比增长11.6%。预计周五的报告将显示同比GDP增长率仅为3.2%。但与整体经济相比，公司的反弹速度通常更快。对消费者和政府而言，重建资产负债表并再次开始支出是一个更长期而又痛苦的过程。

各公司的全球化程度也是因素之一。OppenheimerFunds数据显示，标普500公司约一半的收入来自国外。与此同时，出口在美国GDP中的比重仅占约十分之一。

美国经济增长缓慢与企业利润表现强劲这种表面的矛盾不会永远持续下去。但由于公司仍然严控成本，现在投资者也不必过于担心。