【英语国际】欧元下跌拖累美国公司二季度业绩

The euro has pulled back from the edge of the proverbial cliff. But the currency didn't regain its footing before leaving a dent in some U.S. companies' second-quarter earnings.

Companies ranging from International Business Machines to Royal Caribbean Cruises were pinched by the euro's 10% drop during the quarter, which left the currency down 13.5% from the same period a year earlier. At IBM, the resulting dollar strength translated into a $500 million hit to second-quarter revenue. St. Jude Medical reported currency-related damage of about $12 million, while auto supplier Johnson Controls was squeezed for about $10 million.

In most cases, the dents haven't been large enough to derail otherwise improving results. But Thursday's report by First Solar, which gets three-quarters of its revenue from Europe, according to brokerage Brockhouse Cooper, will be an interesting test. So too will be a trio of other names reporting Thursday -- ratings agency Moody's, aerospace giant Goodrich and medical-device maker Becton, Dickinson -- that Brockhouse says also generate at least a third of revenue from Europe.

Investors often forgive currency losses, seeing them as being largely outside a company's control. Moreover, many large companies hedge to protect against currency swings.

But the weaker euro's impact has been notable in the second-quarter earnings season, now more than halfway complete. Revenue growth for nonfinancial companies is so far up about 3.5% from the first quarter, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist David Bianco. Yet, absent the euro's weakness, that figure would be closer to 6%, he says.

If sustained, the euro's rebound to around $1.30, from sub-$1.20 levels in early June, should help bolster second-half results -- so long as underlying demand remains firm. Philip Morris International, for example, reversed its prior decision to lower full-year guidance after the currency's recent climb.

More helpful still, for investors and companies alike, would be some semblance of currency stability. The S&P 500, trading at 12.5 times estimated earnings, may be historically cheap given how low interest rates are at the moment, as Mr. Bianco argues. But currency and other market noise make it tough for investors to hear such bullish calls.

欧元已经从众所周知的悬崖边缘退了回来。但是，欧元企稳之前，先挫伤了一些美国公司的第二季度利润。

从国际商业机器公司（International Business Machines）到皇家加勒比海邮轮公司（Royal Caribbean Cruises），一系列公司在二季度的表现都受到了欧元下降10%的影响，欧元与去年同期相比下降了13.5%。美元的坚挺使得IBM的第二季度收入减少了5亿美元。St. Jude Medical公司报出汇兑相关损失大约为1200万美元，而汽车供应商Johnson Controls的损失大约为1000万美元。

在大多数情形下，货币引发的损失还不会大到使向好的业绩转为恶化。然而，经纪商Brockhouse Cooper认为将于周四发布业绩的、三个季度收入均来自欧洲市场的First Solar公司的季报是有意思的检验。周四公布业绩的三家公司（评级机构穆迪、航空航天巨头Goodrich和医疗设备生产商Becton, Dickinson公司）的季报也是如此。Brockhouse说这三家公司至少三分之一的收入分别也都来自于欧洲市场。

因为投资者将汇率变动所带来的损失视为基本上不能为公司所控制的，所以往往可以接受这些损失。而且，许多大公司采用套期保值的方式来抵御汇率变动所带来的风险。

但是，更加疲弱的欧元对企业第二季度季报期的影响更加明显，目前的季报期内，已经有超过半数的公司完成了业绩报告。美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）策略师比安科（David Bianco）说，非金融类公司的收入比第一季度增长了约3.5%。他说，如果排除欧元疲弱的影响，这一数字将会接近6%。

如果欧元能保持升势，从其6月早期低于1.2美元的水平反弹回1.3美元附近，且潜在需求强劲，将有助于确保下半年的业绩。例如，最近欧元攀升之后，烟草公司Philip Morris International取消了其先前调低全年业绩指引的决定。

对于投资者和公司来说，更有利的消息是出现了一些货币企稳的迹象。比安科认为，平均市盈率为预期利润12.5倍的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500），在目前低利率的情形下，处于历史上的低价点。但由于受到货币和其他市场杂音的影响，投资者很难体察到看涨的信号。