【英语国际】日圆走强打压日本出口企业利润

As Japan's exporters report quarterly results and issue annual earnings forecasts in coming days, the stubbornly strong Japanese yen is likely to overshadow signs that global demand is improving and restructuring is boosting profitability.

The yen has already strengthened beyond the trading levels assumed by most Japanese auto and electronics makers. If it holds at current levels or gains even more against the U.S. dollar and the euro, Japan's biggest exporters may have to scale back expectations of an earnings recovery. And if that happens, Japan's economic recovery, which has largely been fueled by rising demand for Japanese products abroad, could be at risk.

Both Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have based earnings estimates for the full year ending in March on the assumption that the dollar will trade at 90 yen and the euro at 125 yen. As of Wednesday afternoon in Tokyo, the dollar was at about 88 yen and the euro was around 114.5 yen. While the U.S. and European currencies have regained some ground against the yen in recent weeks, analysts say they could fall again on any signs of a slowdown in the global economy.

Investors generally turn to yen-denominated assets because they're considered a safe place to park money during global economic uncertainty. In the April-June quarter, the first three months of Japan's financial year, the yen gained significantly against the euro and the greenback as Europe's debt crisis worsened and the global economy showed signs of slowing.

The strong yen is problematic for Japanese exporters because it makes their products more expensive overseas and eats into overseas sales sent back to Japan.

On Tuesday, Canon Inc. offered a glimpse of the type of announcements that may emerge from the spate of export-dependent companies like Sony, Panasonic Corp. and Nintendo Co. The company reported a sharp rise in net profit for the three months ended June 30 on robust demand for digital cameras and printers, helping to spark a rally among Tokyo stocks Wednesday.

But Canon kept its 2010 outlook unchanged despite signs of strength. 'Had it not been for the strong yen, we would have raised our earnings forecasts,' said Canon Executive Vice President Toshizo Tanaka at a news conference.

Canon adjusted its foreign-exchange assumption for the euro to 110 yen from an earlier 125 yen. It kept its U.S. dollar assumption unchanged at 90 yen. Unlike most Japanese companies, which have fiscal years ending in March, Canon's ends in December.

When Canon started the year, it said each drop of one yen in the euro's average foreign-exchange rate for the full year would cost the company 6.4 billion yen (about $72.8 million at current rates) in annual sales and 4.6 billion yen in operating profit. Canon officials said the company plans to offset the currency's impact with more aggressive cost cuts.

The euro's move against the yen has been particularly sharp. During the three months ended June 30, the European currency fell 14%, sliding from around 126.30 yen on April 1 to around 108.34 yen on June 30. The euro fell to an 8 1/2-year low against the yen when it dropped to 107.30 yen on June 29.

The dollar fell 5.3% against the yen during the same period, dropping from around 93.50 yen at the start of the quarter to around 88.50 yen on June 30. The greenback's low during the period came on May 6, when a sudden plunge in stock prices in the U.S. briefly sent the currency to about 88 yen.

The Japanese currency has continued to surge against the dollar, which has been weighed down by weak U.S. economic indicators and falling Treasury yields. The dollar slid to a 7 1/2-month low of 86.27 yen July 16.

未来几天日本出口企业将陆续公布季度财报，并发布年度收益预估，日圆走强可能将使全球需求改善和重组提升盈利的迹象黯然失色。

日圆已升逾多数日本汽车和电子产品制造企业设定的交易水平。如果日圆兑美元和欧元维持在当前水平或进一步上涨，日本最大的出口企业可能不得不降低对收益回升的预期。如果真是这样，主要由海外对日本产品需求增长带动的日本经济复苏可能会面临风险。

丰田汽车（Toyota Motor Corp.）和索尼（Sony Corp.）截至3月底的全年收益预估均基于美元兑日圆报90日圆，欧元兑日圆报125日圆的假设。东京汇市周三午后交易中，美元兑日圆约报88日圆，欧元兑日圆约报114.5日圆。尽管近几周美元和欧洲货币兑日圆扳回一些跌幅，但分析师认为，一旦出现全球经济放缓的迹象，美元和欧洲货币将再次下跌。

投资者大体转向日圆计价的资产，因为在全球经济具有不确定性之际，他们认为日圆计价资产是放置资金的避险之处。4-6月是日本财政年度的第一季度，日圆兑欧元和美元大幅上涨，因欧洲债务危机恶化且全球经济显露出放缓迹象。

日圆走强是日本出口企业面临的问题，因为这使它们的产品在海外更加昂贵，当海外销售收入汇回日本时，又会侵蚀他们的收益。

佳能（Canon Inc.）周二公布了财报，索尼、松下（Panasonic Corp.）和任天堂（Nintendo Co.）等出口企业可能亦将公布这样的财报。佳能公布，截至6月30日的三个月净利大增，因市场对数码相机和打印机需求旺盛，该股带动东京股市周三上涨。

尽管出现了强劲的迹象，但佳能维持2010年财测不变。佳能执行副总裁Toshizo Tanaka在新闻发布会上说，如果不是日圆走强，我们本来会提高收益预估。

佳能调整了汇率假设，将欧元兑日圆从此前认为的125日圆调整至110日圆，将美元兑日圆汇率假设维持在90日圆不变。多数日本企业的财政年度在3月底结果，与它们不同，佳能的财政年度于12月底结束。

今年伊始，佳能表示，全年日圆兑欧元平均汇率中，日圆汇率每下降一日圆，都将使公司年度销售收入损失64亿日圆(以当前汇率计算约合7280万美元)，运营利润则损失46亿日圆。佳能高管说，公司计划拿出更积极的成本削减措施来应对汇率的影响。

欧元兑日圆的变动尤其剧烈。在截至6月30日的三个月，欧元下跌14%，从4月1日的约126.30日圆降至6月30日的约108.34日圆。6月29日欧元兑日圆跌至八年半低点107.30日圆。

同期内美元兑日圆下挫5.3%，从季度初期的约93.50日圆降至6月30日的约88.50日圆。这一期间内美元低点是在5月6日创下的，当时美国股市的突然下跌带动美元兑日圆短暂下挫至约88日圆。

日圆兑美元持续上涨，而美元因美国经济指标疲弱和国债收益率下降而受到打压。7月16日美元兑日圆下滑至七个半月低点86.27日圆。