【英语国际】美国小股民逃离股市

Many individual investors were tiptoeing back into stocks in the spring. Now, they're running for cover again.

Karen and Roger Potyk, a comfortably retired couple in San Antonio, Tex., had clung to some stock mutual funds despite their anxiety following the financial crisis of 2008. But the renewed market volatility following the 'flash crash' of May 6 proved too much to bear.

'We just didn't want to put up with it any more,' says Karen Potyk. She and her husband sold the last of their stock holdings on May 20, moving the money to bonds, certificates of deposit and bond-like annuities.

Small investors' faith in stocks, which surged in the 1990s, has collapsed since the technology-stock debacle and the Enron and WorldCom scandals of 2000-2002. The 2007-2009 financial crisis only made things worse. Now, the pullback among ordinary investors means they are a declining force in a market that is increasingly dominated by professionals.

Some were tantalized by equities during the 70% rally that began in March 2009 and ran through April. But mutual-fund data and other clues suggest that that brief infatuation has ended.

In 2002, investors withdrew more money from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks than they put in. Then from 2007 through 2009 they withdrew money for three consecutive years. That marked the first three-year period of withdrawals since 1979-1981, according to the Investment Company Institute. This year, U.S.-stock funds saw inflows in January, March and April, but net withdrawals resumed in May.

Investors talk of a growing disillusionment with big institutions, including corporations, government, banks and political parties -- as well as fears about the nation's heavy debt. Some people's confidence in stocks was seriously shaken by the volatility that returned in May.
They worry that the May 6 flash crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 700 points in eight minutes before rebounding, is a sign that ordinary people are increasingly at the mercy of anonymous companies that trade with powerful computers.

Individual investors were important market pillars in the 1990s, but their flight from stocks is changing the market dynamic. By adding money to mutual funds, individuals helped push stocks higher in the 1990s and to a lesser extent from 2003 through 2007. Now they are moving money out again on balance, making them a drag on the market.

Ordinary investors are returning to the cautious mentality they developed during the 1970s. That was the last extended period of stock weakness, after which it took many people a decade or more to get comfortable with stocks again.

'I feel like the tail of the dog that is being wagged by institutional investors who are taking a lot of risk, playing a lot of games and just have these computerized orders that affect me a lot,' says Simeon Thibeaux, a semi-retired businessman from Alexandria, La.

History suggests that individuals eventually will return to stocks, as they did in the 1980s and, even more strongly, in the 1990s. But rebuilding their confidence could take time, says Brian Reid, chief economist of the Investment Company Institute, a mutual-fund trade group. Historically, it has taken an extended period of stock success to lure individuals back after long periods of disaffection.

Rebounding after a two-month slump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 511 points, or 5%, to 10198.03 last week, its biggest weekly gain in almost a year, although it remains down 9% since topping out on April 26.

'We have gone through two of the worst bear markets since the Great Depression, and it has given investors a better sense of the risks and dangers of investing' in stocks Mr. Reid says, referring to the bear markets of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.

The gradual dissipation of investor confidence can be seen in mutual-fund investing patterns.

After getting burned in the 2000 tech-stock crunch, individuals came back to U.S. stock funds in 2003, as stocks were entering a new bull market, ICI data show. But the buying proved tepid and turned to net selling in the latter part of 2006, even before the bull market ended in 2007. Despite occasional periods of inflows to U.S.-stock funds, the selling trend has continued since then.

Individuals removed a net $7 billion from stock funds in the seven days ending May 12 and $13 billion two weeks later, eclipsing the deposits from earlier in the year.

Recent volatility has certainly shaken the Potyks' confidence. Mr. Potyk, a 68-year-old pharmacist, spent 25 years as an army officer and 11 years with Pfizer before retiring. His wife, 63, is a retired real-estate broker.

The Potyks stuck with their stocks through the tech wreck, the Sept. 11 attacks and Enron. They were willing to take risks to get stock-market returns. The big blow to their confidence was the 2008 collapse of brokerage-firm Lehman Brothers, in which they lost $75,000 on a Lehman bond. Although it was a bond that hurt them, the Potyks' faith in all potentially risky investments was shattered.

'In the military, you learn that you want people you can respect, trust -- who have integrity,' Mr. Potyk says. 'Over the last five years or so, I find that our financial institutions have no shred of the character I describe.'

The last straw was the May market volatility, accompanied by widespread fears about European government debt. On May 20, the Potyks asked their financial adviser to sell the last of their stock mutual funds.

Now that their portfolio consists entirely of fixed-income investments, 'I won't make 8% on my money. I will make 4% or 5%, but the money will be there,' says Mr. Potyk.

In 2006, he and his financial adviser say, the Potyks' portfolio was 50% stocks and 50% bonds and other fixed-income investments. Today, they are 100% fixed-income.

Stocks had developed an almost cult-like following in the 1980s and 1990s, when they were among the best investments available. But in the past decade, big U.S. stocks have had the worst performance of nine major investment classes tracked by investment research firm Morningstar.

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has fallen at an annualized rate of 3% a year over the past 10 years, including dividends and controlling for inflation. Long-term Treasury bonds show a gain of 5% a year during that same period, after inflation. Gold is up 10% a year and real-estate investment trusts 8% a year. The S&P 500 index itself, without adjusting for inflation and dividends, is stuck today at a level it first reached 12 years ago, meaning it has gone nowhere in more than a decade, scaring a legion of people in the process.

Reflecting their flight from risk, individual investors appear to be losing faith in an investment strategy called buying on the dips. In times of stock strength, people learn to buy stocks after a decline, when they are cheaper, because the stocks have a tendency to recover. Lately, investors have been reversing that behavior, selling on dips for fear the declines will continue.

The Yale School of Management maintains an index, designed by professor Robert Shiller, that tracks individuals' willingness to buy on dips, based on a monthly survey of wealthy investors. The index topped out in 2002. While it has moved up and down since then, it has been falling since the start of 2009.

Also eating away at risk tolerance is demographics: Baby boomers are aging, making them think more about preserving their holdings' value. This is only part of the story, however: The Investment Company Institute data show lower risk tolerance among younger people, too.

Some investors, haunted by the continuing credit crunch and unemployment fears, are being driven to pull money out of stock funds to make up budget shortfalls.

今年春季，许多个人投资者小心翼翼地回到了股市。而现在，他们又再次开始四散奔逃了。

凯伦(Karen)和罗杰•波提克(Roger Potyk)是德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥(San Antonio)一对安享晚年的退休夫妇。尽管2008年金融危机的爆发令他们焦虑不安，但他们还是紧握住了手中的股票型共同基金。然而，5月6日“闪电崩盘”后新一轮的市场动荡让他们难以承受。

Karen and Roger Potyk.凯伦和罗杰•波提克夫妇在今年5月的市场动荡后卖掉了手中所持的股票型共同基金。“我们实在是不想再忍下去了，”凯伦•波提克说。她和丈夫在5月20那天卖出了他们持有的最后一些股票，转而把资金投向债券、定期存款和债券式年金。

小投资者对股市的信心在上世纪90年代一度高涨，而在2000年至2002年间的科技股崩盘以及安然公司(Enron)和WorldCom的丑闻之后，他们的信心也崩塌了。2007年至2009年爆发的金融危机让事情变得更加糟糕。现在，普通投资者的撤出意味着他们在股市中的力量逐渐衰弱，而专业人士日渐占据了上风。

从2009年3月至今年4月70%的股市反弹让一些人蠢蠢欲动。但共同基金数据及其他线索显示，这种短暂的情投意合早已结束。

2002年，投资者从投入美国股市的共同基金中撤出的资金比他们投入的还要多。从2007年直到2009年，他们连续三年从共同基金中撤出资金。美国投资公司学会(Investment Company Institute)的数据显示，这是自1979年至1981年后首次连续三年的资金流出。美国股票基金在今年的1月、3月和4月有资金流入，但是到了5月，就再次出现了资金净流出的情况。

投资者经常谈论说，他们对包括公司、政府、银行和政党在内的大机构越来越灰心，对美国的债台高筑也忧心忡忡。一些投资者的信心被5月份再次开始的股市波动大大地动摇了。

在5月6日的闪电崩盘中，道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)在8分钟内下挫了700点，而后才止跌回升。他们担心，这意味着普通投资者会越来越任由拥有强大电脑系统的匿名公司摆布。

个人投资者上世纪90年代是市场的重要支柱，他们撤出股市正在改变着股市的动态关系。通过把资金注入共同基金，个人投资者在90年代为推动股票上涨推波助澜，在2003年至2007年间这种推动力变得小了一些。如今他们整体上正在再次把资金转移出去，这让个人投资者变成了市场的阻力。

普通投资者正在回归上世纪70年代的保守心态。70年代是股市最近的一次长时间低迷期。许多人在那以后用了十年或者更长的时间才对股票重新感到放心。

“我觉得自己就像被机构投资者甩来甩去的狗尾巴一样，机构投资者甘冒极大的风险、玩弄着各种各样的把戏，他们还在进行着那些大大影响到我的电脑化交易，”路易斯安那州亚历山大半退休的商人西伯克斯(Simeon Thibeaux)表示。

历史经验告诉我们，个人投资者最终还将回归股市，正如他们在上世纪80年代──甚至是这股潮流更为突出的90年代──所做的那样。但是，让他们重塑信心可能需要时间，共同基金行业组织美国投资公司学会的首席经济学家里德(Brian Reid)表示。从过去的经验上看，在个人投资者长期对股市失去信心之后，股市需要保持很长一段时间的繁荣才能把他们重新吸引回来。

在两个月的下跌后，道琼斯工业平均指数上周大幅反弹5%，上涨511点至10198.03点，实现了近一年以来最大的周涨幅，但这个点位仍比4月26日的高点低9%。

“我们自从大萧条以来已经历了两次最糟糕的熊市。这让投资者对风险和投资危险有了更清晰的认识，”里德表示。他提到的两次熊市分别发生在2000至2002年和2007至2009年。

投资者信心的逐渐丧失从共同基金的投资模式上就可见一斑。

美国投资公司学会（ICI）的数据显示，在遭受了2000年科技股崩盘的伤害后，个人投资者在2003年股市进入新牛市的时候回到了美国股票基金的怀抱。但是投资者的买进一直不温不火，甚至还没等到2007年牛市结束，到2006年下半年的时候他们已经转而开始净卖出了。尽管美国的股市基金偶尔会有资金流入，但卖出的趋势从那时起就一直延续下来。

在截至5月12日的7天时间内，个人投资者从股市基金中撤出了70亿美元，此后两个星期又撤出了130亿美元，超出了年初他们投入的资金量。

毫无疑问，最近的股市动荡已经动摇了波提克的信心。68岁的波提克是名药剂师，曾在军队服役25年，退休前在辉瑞制药(Pfizer)工作了11年。他的妻子今年63岁，是一位已退休的房地产经纪人。

波提克在科技股崩盘、9/11袭击以及安然公司倒闭时都没有放弃手中的股票。他们愿意为获得股市回报而冒险。对他们的信心造成沉重打击的是2008年经纪公司雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的倒闭。他们因一只雷曼兄弟的债券而损失了7.5万美元。尽管伤害他们的是一只债券，但波提克夫妇对所有存在潜在风险的投资都失去了信心。

“在军队，你学会与值得尊重、信任的人共事，那些拥有正直品质的人，”波提克表示。“在过去差不多五年的时间里，我发现我们的金融机构不具备一丁点儿我提到的这些品质。”

5月份的股市动荡、再加上欧洲主权债务危机引发的大规模恐慌成了最后一根稻草。5月20日，波提克夫妇要求他们的理财顾问抛出了他们最后的股票共同基金。

现在他们的投资组合全部只剩下固定收益投资，“我的收益率达不到8%。我能赚上4%或5%，但我的钱不会消失不见，”波提克说。

2006年，他和他的理财顾问表示，波提克夫妇的投资组合中有50%是股票，其余50%是债券和其他的固定收益投资。现在，100%都变成了固定收益投资。

在上世纪的80、90年代，股票是最好的投资之一，并受到了人们近乎狂热的追捧。但是投资调查公司Morningstar的记录显示，在过去的十年间，美国大型股在九种主要投资类型中的表现最为差劲。

过去十年以来，标准普尔500指数(The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index)每年包含股息并经通胀调整后的折年下跌幅度达3%。而与此同时，长期国债经通货膨胀调整后每年上涨5%，黄金价格每年上涨10%，房地产投资信托每年的涨幅则为8%。如果不经通胀和股息调整，目前的标准普尔指数处在12年前第一次触及的水平。这意味着十年多来它只是在原地转圈，在这个过程中还让一大批投资者饱受惊吓。

从个人投资者通过撤资规避风险来看，他们似乎对低价买入的投资策略正在失去信心。在股市强劲的时候，人们明白要等到股票下跌之后、当股价更低的时候再买入，因为股市总有回升的趋势。近来，投资者的行动方向发生了逆转，由于担心股市会继续下跌，他们在低价时卖出了股票。

耶鲁管理学院(Yale School of Management)保留着罗伯特•席勒(Robert Shiller)教授设计的一个指数。该指数根据对富有投资者的月度调查来追踪个人投资者逢低买入的意愿。这一指数在2002年达到了高点，之后它时上时下，但从2009年开始该指数就一直在下跌。

对风险承受力的降低还和人口统计学有关：婴儿潮一代正在老去，这让他们更多地考虑投资的保值问题。但这只是其中一部分的原因，另一方面：美国投资公司学会的数据显示，年纪较轻的人对风险的承受力较低。

一些投资者被持续的信贷危机和失业担忧所困扰，不得已从股市基金撤资来弥补预算的不足。