【英语国际】调查：经济学家下调美国经济增长预期

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are more optimistic about the direction of the economy than the general public, though they are revising down forecasts for growth and jobs for the next 12 months.

The majority (64%) of the 55 economists polled--not all of whom answer every question--said that the economy would get better over the next 12 months and 9% said it would get worse; the rest said it would stay about the same. In contrast, the latest WSJ/NBC News poll found 33% of the general public expect the economy to improve and 23% think it will get worse.

The difference may depend on the definition of 'better.' The economy is 'doing better, but not yet doing well,' said Neal Soss of Credit Suisse. Economists, on average, now see the odds of a double-dip recession at 20%. On average, they expect the economy to grow at a pace below 3% through the second quarter of 2011, so slow that they anticipate the unemployment rate, now at 9.5%, will drop to only 8.6% by the end of 2011.

Half don't see the jobless rate returning to 5.5%, roughly full employment, before 2015. 'We see gradual improvement, with an emphasis on gradual,' said Bruce Kasman of J.P. Morgan Chase.

The forecasters see the economic effects of the BP PLC oil spill sharply different from the public. While 41% of respondents to the WSJ/NBC poll said the spill would affect the economy 'a great deal,' not a single economist agreed. Thirty-seven economists, or 70%, said the effect would be 'very little,' compared with just 6% in the public-opinion poll. 'It's an environmental nightmare, but the national economic impact is minimal,' said Paul Ballew of Nationwide.

The economists and public were in line on their views of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy. Half the respondents disapprove of it; 46% approve. Among the economists, 29, or 64%, of those who answered the question disapprove. And similar majorities of the public (63%) and the economists (70%) agree that Congress should focus on reducing the budget deficit even if it means it will take longer for the economy to recover.

'The administration has created immense uncertainty and arbitrarily attacked various industries,' said Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities. 'Stimulus efforts were a bust. Let's try some fiscal responsibility.'

But some economists, while worried about the long-run deficit, think economic growth should take precedence. 'Stimulate now but pass credible laws that will reduce deficit several years out,' said Nicholas Perna of Perna Associates.

《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家比普通公众对经济的走向更加乐观，不过他们正在下调对未来12个月经济增长和就业的预期。

在受访的55位经济学家中，有64%（占大多数）说，未来12个月经济将好转，9%的人说经济会恶化，其他人则说经济将基本保持不变。经济学家们并非每个人都回答了所有的问题。相比之下，《华尔街日报》与NBC News进行的最新一项调查（简称WSJ/NBC News调查）发现，普通公众中有33%预计经济将好转，23%的人认为经济会恶化。

这种差异可能取决于对“好转”的定义。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的索斯(Neal Soss)说，经济开始好转，但表现并不好。平均来看，经济学家认为发生二次探底的几率为20%。平均来看，他们预计2011年二季度末之前，经济将以不足3%的速度增长，增速非常缓慢，以致于他们预计2011年底前，失业率只会从现在的9.5%降至8.6%。

有一半的受访者认为，2015年前失业率不会回到5.5%，也就是充分就业的状况。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的凯斯曼(Bruce Kasman)说，我们看到的是逐渐的好转，我们要强调的是“逐渐”。

经济学家们对英国石油公司(BP PLC)石油泄漏的经济影响的预测与公众迥然不同。WSJ/NBC News调查中有41%的受访者说，漏油事故会对经济造成“严重”影响，而经济学家们则无一人如此认为。有37位经济学家（占70%）说，漏油事故的影响将“非常小”，而对公众的民意调查中只有6%的人持同样看法。保险公司Nationwide的巴罗(Paul Ballew)说，这对环境来说是一场噩梦，不过对国民经济的影响很小。

经济学家和公众对奥巴马总统应对经济的看法是一致的。有一半的受访者表示不赞同，有46%表示赞同。在回答了这一问题的经济学家中，有29位（占64%）表示不赞同。有类似比例的公众（63%）和经济学家（70%）都认为国会应该专注于减少预算赤字，即使这样做意味着经济复苏将需要花费更长的时间。

经纪自营商Pierpont Securities的斯坦利(Stephen Stanley)说，政府制造了巨大的不确定性，任意地攻击各个行业；刺激努力失败了，让我们试试财政责任。

不过，尽管一些经济学家担心长期赤字，却认为经济增长应该是首要任务。咨询公司Perna Associates的佩纳(Nicholas Perna)说，现在进行刺激，不过要通过可信的法律来减少未来多年的赤字。