【英语国际】美联储认为美国经济增速将放缓

Federal Reserve officials, who are likely to reveal Wednesday a cut in their assessment of the growth outlook, are divided on how aggressively the central bank should act if the economy slows further.

Fed officials still expect the U.S. economy to keep growing. But an updated forecast to be released Wednesday afternoon with the minutes of the Fed's late-June policy meeting is likely to show that officials have trimmed their second-half forecasts-as have many private forecasters.

One topic under debate is the possibility that today's already-low inflation may turn into a debilitating bout of deflation, a broad drop in prices across the economy.

Fed officials disagree on the risk of deflation. A few see it as a threat; others call it very unlikely, Fed officials said in recent interviews.

For now, the Fed-and particularly its most-powerful member, Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has ultimate say-appears to be very much in wait-and-see mode. But differences among his colleagues are growing more evident. One problem: Having already cut interest rates to near zero, most of the Fed's options for spurring growth aren't very appealing.

Some policy makers, including Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., are reluctant to revive Fed purchases of U.S. government bonds or mortgage-backed securities, the most forceful action the bank could take if it decides the economy needs more help.

Fed staff estimate that the purchase of $1.25 trillion in bonds in 2009 and early 2010 pushed down long-term interest rates by roughly half a percentage point.

But somes skeptics inside the Fed don't believe the impact was that large and think a new round of purchases might have even less impact because markets are now on a more solid footing. Renewing the purchases would also leave the Fed with a bigger portfolio to shrink, when that time comes, and could backfire if it pushes expectations for future inflation sharply higher.

Other policy makers-among them Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, New York Fed President Bill Dudley and, to a lesser extent, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart-see reviving the purchases as an option that needs to be kept alive, particularly if deflation becomes reality.

Private forecasters believe the Fed should sit tight, according to a new Wall Street Journal survey. Only eight of 52 analysts said the Fed should do more now to spur growth.

周三发布的文件可能将显示美联储(Federal Reserve)官员们下调了他们对经济增长前景的评估意见。如果经济进一步放缓，美联储应该采取多大力度的应对措施？对于这个问题，官员们的意见并不统一。

美联储官员仍旧预计美国经济将保持增长。但周三下午发布的6月下旬政策会议纪要可能显示，官员们和很多民间预测人士一样，也下调了他们对下半年的预测。

人们在讨论，今天已经很低的通货膨胀率，是否有可能变为一轮大伤经济元气的通货紧缩，也就是整个经济体的物价普遍下跌。

美联储官员没有对通缩风险形成一致意见。在近期接受的采访中，一些人说通缩迫在眉睫，另一些人说通缩不太可能发生。

暂时来看，美联储在很大程度上处于静观状态，其权力最大、拥有最终决定权的成员──主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)更是如此。但贝南克及其同事的分歧正变得越来越明显。一个问题是，在已经把利率削减到近零水平的情况下，美联储用于刺激增长的多数工具都不是很有吸引力。

一些政策制定者不愿意重启美联储对国债或抵押贷款支持证券的购买，这些人包括美联储理事沃什(Kevin Warsh)和里士满联邦储备银行行长拉克(Jeffrey Lacker)。如果美联储认为需要对经济提供进一步的扶助，那么购买债券是它可以采取的最有力的行动。

美联储工作人员估计，2009年和2010年年初购买1.25万亿美元债券，已将长期利率压低了大约半个百分点。

但美联储内部一些批评人士不相信影响有这么大，并认为新一轮债券购买的影响可能更小，因为现在市场的根基已经更加牢固。继续购买债券还将使美联储的资产负债表进一步膨胀，要在恰当时机予以收缩就会更加困难，而如果此举大幅抬高了通胀预期，则有可能出现没有预料到的负面后果。

其他政策制定者认为，重启债券购买是一种不能排除的选项，而如果通货紧缩成为现实，那就更是如此。这些人包括波士顿联邦储备银行行长罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)、纽约联邦储备银行行长达德利(Bill Dudley)和主张相对不那么强烈的亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)。

《华尔街日报》最新调查显示，民间预测人士相信美联储应该按兵不动。52名分析人士当中只有八位认为美联储应该采取进一步措施来刺激经济增长。