【英语国际】美国汇率政策报告说了中国啥？

The following is the section on China in the Semi-Annual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies, which the U.S. Treasury sent to Congress on Thursday.

China, like other emerging markets, was hit by the global financial crisis and recession. Its aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus has resulted in a strong domestic demand-led economic recovery and a significant decline in its current account surplus. While some of the current account adjustment resulted from temporary cyclical factors and a substantial easing of monetary and fiscal policies, China has made progress in rebalancing its growth--depending less on exports for growth and more on domestic demand, and most importantly, consumption. Nevertheless, the decline in the current account surplus is likely to be reversed unless the government perseveres with policy efforts to rebalance the economy and to advance and implement a more flexible, market-determined exchange rate.

China's real GDP rose by 9.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2009, as fixed investment and consumption contributed approximately 8.2 percentage points and 4.6 percentage points to growth, respectively. Net exports subtracted 4.2 percentage points from growth in 2009, the first time net exports contracted since 1999.

In the first quarter of 2010, China's economy continued to grow rapidly, with GDP rising by 11.9 percent year-on-year, as fixed investment and consumption contributed 6.9 percentage points and 6.2 percentage points of growth, respectively, substantially higher than in recent years. Net exports subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth. In June 2010, the IMF projected that China would grow by 10.5 percent this year.

Exports fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 as global demand dried up, and by May 2009, China's exports were down 26.1 percent from their May 2008 level. The rebound was also rapid, and by the end of 2009, exports had almost fully recovered to their pre-crisis level. By May 2010, China's exports were 49 percent above their May 2009 level and were 9.3 percent above their May 2008 level. Mainly reflecting China's massive stimulus package, the current account surplus fell from 9.4 percent of GDP in 2008 to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2009. In the first quarter of 2010 the current account surplus fell to 4.5 percent of GDP but the data are not seasonally adjusted, making comparisons with the annual data difficult.

U.S. exports to China have rebounded much more rapidly than overall U.S. exports, and are now 20 percent above their pre-crisis levels. In the second half of 2009, U.S. exports to China increased by 15 percent on a year-over-year basis, while U.S. exports to the rest of the world fell by 13 percent. In the first quarter of 2010, U.S. goods exports to China rose by more than 40 percent compared to the same period the year before, while U.S. exports to the rest of the world rose by less than 20 percent.

Part of the decline in China's trade surplus can be attributed to policies that China has implemented to boost consumption. As part of its stimulus package, China increased pension payments by 10 percent, and provided consumer subsidies for purchases of durable goods such as appliances and autos. To support long-term growth in consumption and reduce precautionary saving by households, the government increased social spending by 18 percent in 2009 (equivalent to 1.5 percent of GDP) and announced further measures to expand the safety net, including a three-year healthcare reform package (equivalent to 2.4 percent of 2009 GDP over 2009-11) and a new rural pension system. China's central government also has recently supported decisions by many provincial and municipal governments in the last year to substantially increase minimum wages. Higher wages will support the government's goal of spurring growth of household income and consumption. China's massive infrastructure investment program also should encourage domestic demand-led growth. Infrastructure investment is focused on the under-developed western and central regions, helping to drive a process of industrialization and urbanization that should lift incomes by absorbing excess rural labor, and spur housing investment (and associated consumer spending) in fast-growing interior cities.

Much of the recent decline in China's trade surplus, however, is likely a result of cyclical or temporary factors. Most importantly, there has been a significantly larger than normal growth differential between China and the rest of the world during the crisis period. Due in part to its timely and large-scale stimulus, China's economic slowdown was shallower than that of most of the rest of the world, and its economy began to recover much earlier. This resulted in much higher domestic demand growth in China relative to its major trading partners. According to the People's Bank of China, China's economic output has been above the economy's potential since the end of 2009. By March 2010, real industrial production was running 3 percent above potential. In comparison, according to the IMF, advanced economies, which are the end destination for the majority of China's exports, were running an output gap of 4.5 percent in 2009 and projected to run an output gap of 3.1 percent in 2010, as a result of growth that was far below long-term trends.

Looking forward, China's trade surplus is likely to rise again as the rest of the world recovers. The differential output gap between China and its major trading partners likely reached its cyclically widest point in the first half of 2010. As China withdraws stimulus, its output likely will return to potential. As advanced countries recover, their output gaps will narrow, as they already have for the last two quarters, and the differential between China's and advanced economies' output gaps will narrow.

To solidify the recent progress in reducing China's current account surplus, the government must implement exchange rate reform to complement the other structural reforms listed above. China reformed its exchange rate regime in 2005, moving off of its peg to the U.S. dollar and gradually to a more market-determined exchange rate. In July 2008, as the global financial crisis was growing, China temporarily returned to a policy of pegging the renminbi to the dollar, which it said was in response to growing volatility in global financial markets.

According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), China's real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated 22.7 percent since its exchange rate reform in July 2005, with 40 percent of that appreciation occurring since China re-pegged the RMB to the dollar in July 2008. Taking a longer view, China's REER is only 6.8 percent stronger than its average monthly level in the five-year period between 1998 and 2002.

In order to limit renminbi movement against the dollar, the PBOC purchases and sells foreign exchange reserves on a daily basis. Cumulatively, China has been a net purchaser of foreign exchange over the last ten years, as China has acted much more often to limit renminbi appreciation, rather than depreciation. These foreign exchange purchases reflect the PBOC's efforts to resist renminbi appreciation against the dollar. Although the pace of reserve accumulation has declined slightly over the past year, China continues to purchase large amounts of foreign exchange, adding to its reserves. In 2009, China's net purchases of foreign exchange reserves totaled $398 billion (8.1 percent of GDP), down from $480 billion (10.8 percent of GDP) in 2008, primarily reflecting China's narrowing current account surplus. In the first quarter of 2010, China purchased $96 billion (8.2 percent of GDP) in foreign exchange reserves, on pace with its 2009 accumulation.

Under its heavily managed exchange rate regime, China's reserve accumulation is in large part a reflection of resisting full appreciation that reflects market demand for the renminbi. China's central bank held $2.4 trillion worth of foreign reserves at the end of the first quarter of 2010, equivalent to 54 percent of China's 2009 GDP, or over 27 months of imports. China's state sector as a whole including the central bank, public banks, and China Investment Corporation holds roughly $3 trillion in foreign currency assets. China's foreign exchange reserves are roughly three times as high as the reserves held by Japan, the country with the second largest holdings.

On June 19, 2010, China announced that it was returning to an exchange rate regime that would be more flexible and more market based, with the renminbi allowed to trade within a band of plus/minus 0.5 percent against the dollar on a daily basis. On June 21, the first trading day following China's announcement, the renminbi appreciated 0.43 percent, the largest single day appreciation against the dollar since China's initial 2.1 percent revaluation on July 21, 2005. Between the June 19 announcement and July 2, the renminbi appreciated a total of 0.81 percent versus the dollar, while average intraday volatility has been much higher than that seen during the 2007-08 period of steady renminbi appreciation against the dollar.

China's policy shift is a significant development and a welcome step forward in fostering stronger, more sustainable, and more balanced global growth. What matters is how far and how fast the renminbi appreciates. This strengthening would complement other policy reforms to rebalance Chinese economic growth toward consumption and sustain the reduction in China's external imbalances.

China's continued rapid pace of foreign reserve accumulation; the limited appreciation of China's real effective exchange rate relative to rapid productivity growth in the traded goods sector; and the persistence of current account surpluses even during a period when China's trading partners are in deep recession - together suggest that the renminbi remains undervalued.

As during the 2005-08 period, it will take time before we can accurately assess whether China's recent exchange rate change will produce a sufficiently market-determined exchange rate to correct the undervaluation. A central bank that pursues a heavily managed exchange rate cannot announce in advance what future exchange rates will be, given the large amount of international capital that would move to take advantage of those announcements and complicate its conduct of monetary policy. Although between July 2005 and July 2008 the Chinese currency appreciated 21.2 percent against the dollar, the rate of appreciation varied significantly over the course of this period.

Exchange rate appreciation should play an important role in rebalancing China's economy towards domestic demand-led growth. It could also expand China's ability to set an independent monetary policy appropriate for Chinese economic conditions. As China's recovery strengthens, moving further to a more flexible, market-determined exchange rate would give monetary authorities greater scope to maintain price stability. This is particularly important in the short-run as China's economy grows above trend, and inflation is rising. In May 2010, consumer prices increased 3.1 percent year-on-year, above the government's 3 percent target for the year. Producer prices are rising even faster at 7.1 percent. Greater flexibility of China's exchange rate should also reduce incentives for foreign exchange intervention by other countries trying to maintain trade competitiveness vis-=E0-vis China, contributing to sustained and more balanced global growth.

China's exchange rate reform must be reinforced by macroeconomic policies that support domestic demand and other structural reforms to create a strong foundation for consumption-led growth. At the second meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) on May 24-25, 2010, the two countries reiterated their commitment to 'pursue policies of adjusting domestic demand and relative prices to lead to more sustainable and balanced trade and growth.' China committed to continue its efforts to enhance the contribution of domestic consumption to its GDP growth, including through policies to: gradually increase the share of household income in national income; accelerate development of the service sector; speed up the reform of monopolies; increase access to finance for small- and medium-sized enterprises; and continue to strengthen the social safety net. If successfully implemented, and accompanied by market-based exchange rate reform, these initiatives should increase the role of domestic demand, particularly consumption, in China's GDP growth, reduce China's reliance on exports for growth, and maintain China's overall strong economic rate of growth.

IMF Article IV Reports on China, when they have been published, have provided valuable information about assessments of macroeconomic and exchange rate policy. We encourage China to resume publication of its Article IV Reports.

美国财政部周四向国会递交了《国际经济与汇率政策半年度报告》(Semi-Annual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies)，以下是其中有关中国的小节：

European Pressphoto Agency人民币兑美元已经实现一定程度升值，但批评人士仍认为不够快。中国像其他新兴市场一样，受到了全球金融危机与经济衰退的打击。大规模的财政与货币刺激，使其经济在国内需求的带动下强劲复苏，经常项目顺差明显下降。虽然经常项目的调整部分源自短时间的周期性因素和货币与财政政策的大幅放松，但中国在增长的再平衡方面取得了进步，即更少地依靠出口、更多地依靠国内需求和消费（这是最重要的）来实现增长。不过，如果中国政府不保留让经济实现再平衡的政策措施，并推进、实施一种更灵活、更由市场决定的汇率机制，那么经常项目顺差的下降有可能遭到回调。

中国真实GDP在2009年同比增长9.1%，其中固定资产投资和消费分别贡献了约8.2个百分点、4.6个百分点。净出口让2009年的增长率减去了4.2个百发点，这是1999年以来第一次出现净出口萎缩。

在2010年第一季度，中国经济继续快速增长，GDP同比增加11.9%，其中固定资产投资和消费分别贡献6.9个百分点、6.2个百分点，远远高于近些年。净出口让增长率减去了1.2个百分点。IMF（国际货币基金组织）在2010年6月份预计，今年中国经济将增长10.5%。

2008年第四季度，中国的出口随着全球需求的枯竭而急剧下降，到2009年5月份，出口额较2008年5月份的水平已经下降了26.1%。反弹也是迅速的，到2009年年底，出口额基本上已经恢复到危机以前的水平。到2010年5月份，中国出口额较2009年5月份的水平高出49%，较2008年5月份的水平高出9.3%。经常项目顺差从2008年占GDP的9.4%下降到2009年占GDP的5.8%，这主要是中国一揽子大规模刺激措施的反映。2010年第一季度，经常项目顺差下降到GDP的4.5%，但这个数据没有按照季节性因素调整，难以和前面的年度数据比较。

美国对中国的出口已经以远高于出口总额的速度反弹，现在比危机前水平高出20%。在2009年下半年，美国对华出口同比增长15%，而美国向世界其他地方的出口下降了13%。在2010年第一季度，美国对华商品出口较去年同期增长逾40%，而美国对世界其他地区的出口增长了不到20%。

中国贸易顺差的这种下降，可部分归因于中国为提振消费而实施的政策。作为一揽子刺激措施的一部分，中国将退休金增加了10%，并为消费者购买家电和汽车等耐用商品提供补贴。为支持消费的长期增长并降低家庭的预防性储蓄，政府在2009年将社会支出增加18%（相当于GDP的1.5%），并宣布将采取进一步措施扩大社会保障网络，其中包括一项为期三年的医疗卫生改革方案（从2009年到2011年，支出相当于2009年GDP的2.4%）和一项新的农村养老金制度。中国的中央政府还在近期支持了很多省市政府去年做出的大幅提高最低工资水平的决定。工资上涨将会支持政府实现刺激家庭收支增长的目标。中国大规模的基础设施投资计划，应该也会有助于内需带动的增长。基础设施投资集中于欠发达的中西部地区，这有助于推动工业化和城市化进程，进而应该会通过吸收富余劳动力来提高收入水平，并在快速增长的内陆城市刺激房地产投资（及相关的消费支出）。

不过，最近中国贸易顺差的收窄从很大程度上可能是周期性或临时性因素的结果。最重要的是，在危机期间，中国与世界其他国家之间存在着明显大于正常水平的增长差。部分得益于及时而大规模的刺激计划，中国的经济放缓比世界上其他大部分国家都要轻微，中国经济也更早地开始复苏。这就造成中国相对主要贸易伙伴高得多的内需增长。据中国央行的数据，自2009年底以来，中国经济产出一直高于潜能。2010年3月前，实际工业产出较潜能高出3%。相比之下，据IMF说，2009年发达经济体的产出缺口将为4.5%，预计2010年为3.1%，这是因为它们的增长远远低于长期趋势。发达经济体是中国大部分出口产品的最终目的地。

今后，随着世界其他国家逐渐复苏，中国的贸易顺差很可能会再次扩大。中国与主要贸易伙伴在产出缺口上的差距很可能将于2010年上半年达到本周期最高水平。随着中国退出刺激计划，其产出很可能将回归潜能的水平。随着发达经济体逐渐复苏，其产出缺口将会收窄（正如过去两个季度已经出现的），中国与发达经济体产出缺口之间的差别将缩小。

为巩固最近中国在减少经常项目盈余上取得的进展，政府必须实施汇率改革，以便作为上述其他结构性改革的补充。2005年，中国改革了汇率体制，取消了与美元挂钩的做法，逐渐转向更多由市场确定的汇率。2008年7月，随着全球金融危机的愈演愈烈，中国暂时回到了将人民币与美元挂钩的政策上。中国政府说这是为应对全球金融市场日益加大的动荡。

据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，自2005年7月的汇率改革以来，中国实际有效汇率升值22.7%，其中有40%是在2008年7月中国将人民币重新与美元挂钩之后。更长期来看，从1998年至2002年的五年中，中国的实际有效汇率只比平均月度水平高出6.8%。

为限制人民币兑美元的波动，中国央行按日买卖外汇储备。总体来讲，在过去10年中，中国是一个外汇净买入国，因为中国更多地是在限制人民币升值，而不是贬值。这些外汇的买进反映出中国央行反对人民币兑美元升值的努力。尽管过去一年中，外汇储备的积累步伐小幅下滑，中国仍继续大量买进外汇，不断增加外汇储备。2009年，中国净买进外汇储备总额3,980亿美元（相当于GDP的8.1%），较2008年的4,800亿美元（相当于GDP的10.8%）有所下降，主要反映出中国不断收窄的经常项目盈余。2010年一季度，中国买进了960亿美元（相当于GDP的8.2%）外汇储备，与2009年的速度相当。

在中国严格管理的汇率制度下，中国的外汇储备积累主要反映出反对人民币的完全升值；而人民币的完全升值则可以反映出市场对人民币的需求。截至2010年一季度末，中国央行持有2.4万亿美元外汇储备，相当于2009年中国GDP的54%，或逾27个月的进口额。包括央行、上市银行和中投公司在内的中国国有公司总计持有约3万亿美元外汇资产。中国的外汇储备比外汇储备居世界第二的日本约高出两倍。

2010年6月19日，中国宣布将重新实行更灵活、更以市场为基础的汇率机制，即允许人民币兑美元汇率每日围绕基准价上下波动不超过0.5个百分点。6月21日是中国外汇市场在这项宣布之后的第一个交易日，人民币当天兑美元升值了0.43个百分点，这是中国在2005年7月21日当天将人民币兑美元一次性升值2.1个百分点之后，人民币兑美元的最大单日涨幅。在6月19日至7月2日这段时间，人民币兑美元总计升值了0.81个百分点，与2007-08年期间人民币兑美元稳步升值的情形相比，这段时间人民币兑美元汇率的平均日间波动幅度要高得多。

中国的政策转变是一个重要的事态发展，是朝形成更强劲、更可持续和更均衡的全球经济增长迈出的积极一步。 真正重要的是人民币会以多大的幅度和多快的速度升值。这方面的进展将对中国的其他政策改革形成补充，这些改革旨在纠正中国经济增长的失衡问题，使经济朝更依赖国内消费拉动的方向发展，同时进一步缓解中国的外部失衡问题。

中国的外汇储备在继续快速增加，与中国商品贸易领域劳动生产率的快速增长相比升值有限的中国实际有效汇率，以及中国在其贸易伙伴深陷经济衰退时仍持续存在经常项目盈余这一事实，都表明人民币依然存在低估。

就像2005-08年期间一样，我们也需要一段时间后才能准确评估中国最近实施的汇率改革是否能使人民币形成由市场力量充分决定的汇率，从而纠正人民币的低估问题。鉴于中国发布人民币汇率政策的声明后大量国际资本会闻风而动以期从中获利，并因此使中国货币政策的实施变得复杂，一家致力于对汇率实施高度管理的央行是无法预先宣布汇率未来将处于何种水平的。虽然在2005年7月至2008年7月期间，人民币兑美元升值了21.2%，但在这期间的不同时段人民币兑美元的升值幅度却相差很大。

在使中国经济朝更依赖国内需求拉动的方向发展方面，人民币升值应该扮演重要角色。这还有助于提升中国形成一套适合本国经济状况的独立货币政策的能力。随着中国经济复苏势头的增强，向更灵活的、由市场决定的人民币汇率演进将使中国的货币当局在维持价格稳定方面获得更大余地。这一点短期而言尤其重要，因为中国的经济增长率已高于趋势水平，通货膨胀率正在上升。2010年5月的消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨了3.1%，高于政府今年3%的涨幅目标，当月的生产者价格指数同比涨幅更是达到7.1%。人民币汇率提高灵活性还会降低其他国家为保持本国相对于中国的贸易竞争力而干预汇市的动力，从而为全球经济更加均衡且持续的增长作出贡献。

中国的汇率改革必须得到宏观经济政策和其他结构性改革的增援，这些政策可以支持国内需求，而这些改革则旨在为由国内消费引领的经济增长打下强大基础。在2010年5月24-25日举行的第二届美中战略与经济对话会议上，美中两国重申，他们将致力于制定可调整国内需求和相对价格、以实现更持续和均衡的贸易和经济增长的政策。中国承诺会继续努力提高国内消费对国内生产总值(GDP)增长率的贡献率，具体措施包括通过出台政策以逐步提高家庭收入在国民收入中所占的比重，加快服务业的发展，加速垄断行业的改革，加大对中、小企业的金融服务，继续强化社会保障体系。如果这些承诺得到成功落实，并伴随以市场为基础的汇率改革，它们将会提高国内需求、特别是消费对GDP增长的贡献率，降低中国经济增长对出口的依赖，使中国的整体经济保持强劲增长。

当国际货币基金组织(IMF)有关中国的国别报告（Article IV Reports）被公开发表时，曾对评估中国的宏观经济和汇率政策提供有价值的信息。我们鼓励中国恢复这一报告的公布。

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关键词：货币  汇率  人民币