【英语国际】欧洲债务危机快到头了吗？

Europe's debt crisis sent investors spinning in the first half of 2010. Will it also dominate the headlines in the second half? If July's first few days of trading are any indication, investors are off panic-mode but remain very much on edge.

Take a look at how some key risk-o-meters in Europe have performed since the start of the month.

Europe's common currency, the euro, has been one of the biggest victims of Greece's debt crisis and its fallout on other struggling Southern European economies. These days, however, analysts and investors are scratching their heads over the currency's recent run against the U.S. dollar: The euro, which is down today, is nevertheless trading at $1.2574 compared with $1.2229 at the end of June. On May 4, one euro bought $1.1917.

The euro's bounce suggests Europe's political leaders have made some headway in warding off worries about a break-up of the euro currency area.

Indeed, investors kicked off the second half of 2010 by giving European governments a rest and worrying about the global economic recovery instead. A batch of disappointing reports on the U.S. economy even helped push the beleaguered euro higher. Meanwhile, the European Union's decision to 'stress-test' banks has given investors hope that market fears about banks may soon lessen. Spain, the market's latest punching bag after Greece, successfully raised cash from the bond markets both this week and last, easing concerns about a big debt repayment due at the end of this month.

Like the euro, the British pound has risen in value against the dollar to $1.5110 from $1.4939 on June 30. It was as low as $1.4336 on May 18. Britain has surprised naysayers by forming an effective ruling coalition government that has made progress on the country's big budget deficit. The U.K.'s important 'triple-A' credit rating looks safe for now. So much for the idea that Britain is the next Greece.

The result: Some analysts are talking about the sovereign-debt story moving away from Europe in the next few months and hitting the U.S., which also has a massive budget deficit.

But it's unclear whether Europe's troubles can really go away that fast. Despite the euro's gains, most currency analysts remain bearish, with some still expecting the currency to hit parity against the dollar. Analysts at Dutch bank ING put out a report today saying a euro-zone break-up remains a possible scenario.

And while Europe's bond markets are in better shape than they were a few months ago, they're still under considerable pressure.

As the first half of the year wound down, even stronger economies like France were starting to worry investors. Banks were growing very wary of lending to each other. Some of the pressures in European money markets are now easing. The cost to insure the debts of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland is lower than it was at the end of June, according to data provider CMA DataVision. Investors are talking about the possibility of buying bonds of highly-indebted European countries.

'People are probably feeling a little bit more comfortable,' says Huw Worthington, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. 'The spreads are becoming attractive now.'

But there are still not enough signs that investor worries are actually going away. Worries about Europe are 'going to stay,' Mr. Worthington says, though the news-flow may improve.

For one thing, the borrowing costs of countries along Europe's southern fringe remain painfully high. The cost to insure their debts using derivatives suggests investor concern remains elevated. People seem to be waiting for a Greek government default.

What could turn things around? The results of Europe's bank stress tests at the end of this month could help draw a line under Europe's problems - as happened in the U.S. Stronger-than-expected readings of economic growth in Asia and the U.S. could dispel fears of a 'double-dip' and make investors more confident that austerity measures taken in Europe won't push economies into reverse. But without good news on these fronts, it's still very possible that another market flare-up could bring fears of rolling European defaults back to the fore.

2010年上半年，欧洲的债务危机弄得投资者头昏眼花。下半年它还会是关注的焦点吗？如果7月份头几个交易日的情况可以说明什么的话，那么投资者已经摆脱了恐慌，但依然紧张不安。

看看本月以来欧洲的一些重要风险指标表现如何吧。

欧洲的共同货币欧元是希腊债务危机及其对其他陷入困境的南欧经济体不利影响的最大受害者之一。不过，分析人士和投资者真是搞不懂最近欧元兑美元的走势。尽管周四欧元走软，欧元兑美元仍有1.2574美元，相比之下，6月底为1.2229美元。5月4日，欧元兑1.1917美元。

欧元的反弹表明欧洲的政治领导人已经在消除人们对欧元区解体的担忧上取得了一些进展。

实际上，2010年下半年开始，投资者给了欧洲各国政府喘息的机会，转而担心起全球经济复苏。有关美国经济的一系列令人失望的报导甚至还帮助推高了陷入困境的欧元。与此同时，欧盟对银行业进行“压力测试”的决定给了投资者希望：市场对银行的担心可能很快会减轻。继希腊之后成为众矢之的的西班牙本周和上周成功地从债券市场筹集到了资金，缓解了人们对如何偿还将于本月底到期的一笔巨额债务的担忧。

和欧元一样，英镑兑美元也走强，从6月30日的兑1.4939美元涨到1.5110美元。5月18日，英镑兑美元曾低至1.4336美元。英国组建了一个有效的执政联合政府，在英国巨额预算赤字上取得了一定的进展，大大出乎唱反调的人士的意料。英国重要的AAA信用评级目前看起来是安全的。英国将成为下一个希腊的说法也不攻自破了。

结果是：一些分析人士开始谈论未来几个月主权债务危机将离开欧洲，转到同样有着巨额预算赤字的美国。

不过，不清楚欧洲的问题是否真能那么快地烟消云散。尽管欧元上涨，大部分外汇分析师仍表示不乐观，一些分析师仍预计欧元会跌到兑1美元的程度。荷兰银行荷兰国际集团(ING)的分析师们周三公布了一份报告，说欧元区的解体仍有可能发生。

尽管欧洲的债券市场比几个月之前的情形有所改善，却仍承受着相当大的压力。

随着上半年的结束，就算是法国等更强大的经济体也开始令投资者担心了。银行变得对彼此放贷非常谨慎。欧洲货币市场的部分压力如今开始减轻。据数据提供商CMA DataVision的数据，希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰的债务保险成本较6月底有所降低。投资者开始讨论购买陷入重重债务的欧洲国家发行的债券的可能。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻伦敦分析师沃星顿(Huw Worthington)说，人们或许开始感觉稍微舒服一点了，如今息差开始变得有吸引力了。

不过，仍没有足够的迹象显示投资者的担忧情绪实际上开始消除。沃星顿说，对欧洲的担忧将会持续，不过消息层面上会有所好转。

首先，南欧国家的借贷成本依然非常高。利用衍生品为这些国家债务保险的成本显示出，投资者的担忧情绪依然高涨。人们看起来是在等待希腊政府违约。

有什么可以扭转形势的吗？本月底欧洲银行业压力测试的结果有望帮助理清欧洲的问题，就像美国的一样。亚洲和美国好于预期的经济增长数据有望驱散关于二次探底的担心，令投资者更相信欧洲所采取的严厉措施不会让各经济体开倒车。不过，如果在这些领域没有好消息的话，再来一场市场动荡，仍有可能会令人们对欧洲此起彼伏的违约的担忧死灰复燃。