【英语国际】美国银行业对金融改革法案发起最后反击

Even as uncertainty over the fate of the financial-overhaul bill swelled Monday, analysts and investors expressed relief that the proposed changes would end some of the doubts that have dogged financial stocks for months.

Shares of many banks and securities firms slipped Monday, erasing some of their gains Friday after lawmakers agreed to the bill's final language, which could be voted on by the House and Senate this week.

While bankers still sifting through the legislation said it is less draconian than they initially feared, a weekend of number-crunching left no doubt that the changes would hurt the bottom line at thousands of banks, brokerage firms and other financial companies.

'This is wrong, and we have one last chance to do something about it,' the American Bankers Association wrote in an email to its members, urging them to write opposition letters to members of Congress. Financial-industry lobbyists are aiming at Republicans who voted in favor of the Senate version, hoping to change their position when the final bill comes up for a vote.

'You keep playing until the whistle blows,' says ABA spokesman Peter Garuccio.

Inside most banks, the mood already has switched to assessing how much revenue and earnings are likely to evaporate if the bill becomes law -- and how to make up for the forgone money. Keith Horowitz, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., estimated the legislation would reduce annual earnings per share for big U.S. banks by 6%, down from his previous estimate of 11%.

'The rules did not include some of the more worrisome potential outcomes that could severely impact bank profitability or force a new wave of capital raises,' Mr. Horowitz wrote in a note to bank-stock investors.

The landmark legislation touches nearly every corner of the nation's largest financial firms by setting new rules on risky trading, derivatives, consumer lending and even debit cards.

Banks contend they would lose billions of dollars in annual revenue from the new rules, warning they would have to increase fees paid by customers.

But several changes that emerged last week could shield financial firms from even bigger turmoil. In particular, banks would be permitted to collect hefty fees from managing hedge funds, private equity and real-estate funds that contain client money as long as they don't invest more than 3% of the bank's capital in the entities. The impact would also likely be muted because some new rules won't go into effect for years.

'While this may lead to further surprises down the line, we see this as important, as financial institutions have time to adapt their business models,' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Richard Ramsden wrote in a report to clients.

David Katz, president and chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors Inc., a money-management firm that owns shares of Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley, said the banks 'will be able to work through it.' Even though the changes will hurt earnings, stock prices mightn't suffer because 'the banks have been trading so poorly that from current levels, we think there is [buying] opportunity,' he said.

Industry lobbyists expect the final bill to easily pass the House.

In the Senate, though, the bill's prospects were clouded Monday by the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D., W.Va.) and a statement by Sen. Russ Feingold (D., Wis.) saying he won't vote for the overhaul when it reaches the Senate floor.

Meanwhile, Sen. Scott Brown (R., Mass.), who previously voted for the bill along with three other Republicans, indicated Monday he might oppose the final legislation because of a late addition that would levy roughly $20 billion of new fees on banks.

周一，就在有关金融改革法案的命运越发不确定之际，分析师和投资者表达了他们的宽慰之情，认为对法案内容拟议中的修改将驱散多月来一直笼罩在金融类股上空的部分疑云。

周一，许多银行和证券公司的股票下跌，部分抵消了上周五的升幅。上周五，议员们就法案的最终措辞达成一致。本周，国会参众两院可能对这项法案进行表决。

尽管银行家们仍在研究这项法案，并称其不如他们原先担心的那般严厉，但他们在周末期间仔细研读后却清楚地发现，对法案内容拟议中的修改将损害数千家银行、经纪公司和其它金融公司的利润。

美国银行家协会(American Bankers Association)在致会员的电子邮件中写道，这样不对，我们还有最后的机会为此做出努力。该协会敦促其会员向国会议员写信反对此事。金融行业的游说者将目标对准投票支持参议院版法案的共和党人，希望他们能在法案最终表决时改变立场。

美国银行家协议发言人加罗西奥(Peter Garuccio)说，你要一直努力，直至哨声响起。

在大多数银行内，人们的心态已经改变，大家转而开始评估，如果这项法案成为法律，有多少收入和收益预计会成为泡影，以及如何弥补这些损失。花旗银行分析师霍诺维茨(Keith Horowitz)估计，这项法案将使美国大型银行的每股年收益降低6%，幅度低于他原先估计的11%。

霍诺维茨在给银行股投资者的报告中写道，这些规定中并不包括那些更令人担忧的潜在结果，即那些可能严重影响银行的盈利能力或迫使银行进行新一轮融资的条款。

这一里程碑式的议案几乎触及了美国最大型金融公司的方方面面，为风险交易、衍生品、消费信贷乃至借计卡业务设定了新的规则。

银行声称新规定可能会令其损失数十亿美元的年收入，并警告说他们将不得不提高向消费者的收费。

但上周对法案内容拟进行的几项修改，可能会使金融公司免受更大的损失。一处尤其引人瞩目的修改是，只要银行在其管理的对冲基金、私募基金和房地产基金中的投资不超过银行资本金的3%，银行就获准收取巨额的基金管理费。法案中的一些新规定要多年后才会生效，这也会减弱该法案可能产生的影响。

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的分析师拉姆斯登(Richard Ramsden)在给客户的报告中写道，尽管对法案内容的修改将导致更多出人意料的情况，但我们认为这一修改十分重要，因为金融机构将有时间调整其业务模式。

拥有美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)及摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)股票的纽约投资管理公司──Matrix Asset Advisors Inc.的总裁兼首席投资长卡茨(David Katz)说，银行业将能够应付这一局面。他说，即使对法案内容的修改将打击银行利润，但银行类股的价格可能也不会受到太大影响，因为这些股票的价格已经如此糟糕，以至于从目前价位看，我们认为存在买进的良机。

行业游说者预计，最终定型的法案将在国会众议院轻松通过。

但来自西弗吉尼亚州的民主党参议员伯德(Robert Byrd)去世以及来自威斯康星州的民主党参议员法因戈尔德(Russ Feingold)的一则声明，周一却给这项法案在国会参议院的前景蒙上了阴影。法因戈尔德表示，参议院就金融改革议案进行表决时，他不会投赞成票。

与此同时，来自马萨诸塞州的共和党参议员布朗(Scott Brown)周一也表示，他可能反对这项最终定稿的法案，因为最后增加的条款将向银行业征收约200亿美元的新费用。布朗原先与另外三名共和党参议员表示支持这项法案。