【英语国际】媒体调查：美国人对美国和奥巴马丧失信心

Americans are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less confident in President Barack Obama's leadership than at any point since Mr. Obama entered the White House, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey also shows grave and growing concerns about the Gulf oil spill, with overwhelming majorities of adults favoring stronger regulation of the oil industry and believing that the spill will affect the nation's economy and environment.

Sixty-two percent of adults in the survey feel the country is on the wrong track, the highest level since before the 2008 election. Just one-third think the economy will get better over the next year, a 7-point drop from a month ago and the low point of Mr. Obama's tenure.

Amid anxiety over the nation's course, support for Mr. Obama and other incumbents is eroding. For the first time, more people disapprove of Mr. Obama's job performance than approve. And 57% of voters would prefer to elect a new person to Congress than re-elect their local representatives, the highest share in 18 years.

The results show 'a really ugly mood and an unhappy electorate,' said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. 'The voters, I think, are just looking for change, and that means bad news for incumbents and in particular for the Democrats.'

Mr. McInturff said voters' feelings, typically set by June in any election year, are being hardened by frustration over the economy and the oil spill. 'It would take an enormous and seismic event to change the drift of these powerful forces before November,' he said.

Mr. McInturff added that any 'little, faint signs' in the spring that voters were adopting a more optimistic outlook have now been 'squished by feelings from this oil spill.'

For Democrats, the results underscore the potential for major losses in November. Both parties have been forced to contend with an anti-establishment wave this year. But Republicans, through strong fund raising and candidate recruitment, have put enough seats in play in the House and Senate to give the GOP a realistic shot at winning control of both chambers.

Support for Mr. Obama and his party is declining among centrist, independent voters. But, more ominous for the president, some in his base also are souring, with 17% of Democrats disapproving of Mr. Obama's job performance, the highest level of his presidency.

Approval for Mr. Obama has dropped among Hispanics as well, along with small-town residents, white women and seniors. African-Americans remain the firmest part of Mr. Obama's base, with 91% approving of his job performance.

In winning the presidency, Mr. Obama conveyed an image of remaining steady and focused during the banking crisis and economic downturn. Now, amid the oil spill and a weak economic recovery, Americans are taking a dimmer view of his personal qualities and leadership style.

Some 30% in the poll said they 'do not really relate' to Mr. Obama. Only 8% said that at the beginning of his presidency. Fewer than half give him positive marks when asked if he is 'honest and straightforward.' And 49% rate him positively when asked if he has 'strong leadership qualities,' down from 70% when Mr. Obama took office and a drop of 8 points since January.

Just 40% rate him positively on his 'ability to handle a crisis,' an 11-point drop since January. Half disapprove of Mr. Obama's handling of the oil spill, including one in four Democrats.

《华尔街日报》与美国全国广播公司(NBC)新近进行的一项调查显示，美国人对国家状况的悲观看法，以及对奥巴马总统领导能力的信心，分别上升和下降到了奥巴马入主白宫以来从未有过的程度。

Associated Press图为奥巴马总统在白宫发表讲话。调查还显示，墨西哥湾漏油事件引发的严重担忧仍在不断加大，绝大多数的成年人倾向于对石油业加强监管，并认为漏油事件会影响美国的经济及环境。

接受调查者中62%的成年人认为美国行驶在错误的轨道上，这个比例是2008年大选前后至今的最高水平。仅有三分之一的人认为明年经济会有好转，这个比例较一个月前下滑了七个百分点，为奥巴马上任以来的最低点。

由于受访者对国家的发展方向感到担忧，奥巴马及其他现任者的支持率正在下滑，对奥巴马的业绩表现持否定态度者首次超过肯定者。57%的受访者倾向于推选新人进入国会，而非让现任议员重新当选，这一比例是18年来最高的。

身为民主党人的民意测验专家哈特(Peter Hart)与身为共和党人的民意测验专家麦金塔夫(Bill McInturff)共同主持了本次调查。哈特说，调查显示选民的确情绪很糟，很不满意。他认为选民正在寻求改变，这对现任者特别是民主党人意味着坏消息。

麦金塔夫说，在任何选举年，选民们的情绪基调通常在6月份得以确定，目前由于对经济及漏油事件的处理感到失望，选民的不良情绪正在加重。他说，要有巨大的震动性事件方能在11月之前改变选民这股强大的情绪趋势。

麦金塔夫还说，就算今年春季有些许迹象显示选民们对国家前景持更为乐观看法的话，这种迹象现在也被墨西哥湾漏油给选民情绪造成的负面影响压倒了。

对民主党人来说，这种结果突显出他们在11月份的选举中很可能遭遇重大失败。虽然两党今年都在被迫与反对现行政治格局的浪潮作斗争，但共和党人通过强有力的竞选资金募集工作以及候选人征招工作，他们在国会参议院和众议院中有望夺取的席位，已经足以使共和党获得国会参众两院的控制权。

奥巴马及民主党在中立的独立选民中的支持率持续下滑。但对奥巴马来说更不妙的是，其自身阵营中也出现了不利状况，17%的民主党人不满意奥巴马的政绩，这一水平达其上任以来的最高。

奥巴马在拉美裔以及小城镇居民、白人妇女及年长者中的支持率也出现下滑。非洲裔美国人仍是奥巴马阵营中最坚定的支持者，满意其政绩者达91%。

在总统大选期间，奥巴马以其在银行业危机和经济低迷局面下依然气定神闲的形像赢得了选民的心。而现在，由于他处理漏油事故不力以及美国经济复苏疲弱，美国人对奥巴马的个人品质与领导风格不那么赞赏了。

接受调查者中约有30%的人说他们对奥巴马并无实际好感。而在他上任之初只有8%的人持这种态度。当被问及奥巴马是否诚实、坦率时，只有不到一半的受访者给予他正面评价。对于奥巴马是否有强有力的领导素质这个问题，49%的受访者给予他正面评价，低于奥巴马上任之初时的70%，比1月份时也低了八个百分点。

对于奥巴马处理危机的能力，仅有40%的受访者给予正面评价，比1月份时低11个百分点。受访者中有一半的人不赞同他对墨西哥湾漏油事件的处理，有四分之一的受访民主党人持这种态度。