【英语国际】上海打造国际金融中心步伐加快？

As Shanghai talks more about its future as a global financial center, it is setting plans to put its money where its mouth is.

Ironically, the municipal government in the east coast Chinese city hasn't much tapped the hometown Shanghai Stock Exchange as a listing venue for the large investment houses and banks it controls. It has preferred to retain full ownership, or perhaps regulators in Beijing haven't permitted them to go public.

That will change, says Fang Xinghai, the city's director general of financial services.

Fang told a briefing Tuesday that Shanghai authorities will move forward with initial public offerings by some of the major Chinese financial institutions that are controlled by the Shanghai municipal government. The former stock exchange official has long advocated just that. The firms include Orient Securities Co., Guotai Junan Securities Co., Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. and Bank of Shanghai Co., Fang said. He didn't provide timetables.

'We have a very clear goal that every state-owned financial firm in Shanghai that is qualified for launching initial public offerings should go public,' Fang said.

Financial-system-wise, it's shaping up as a big summer for Shanghai's financial markets--in fact, a big decade.

Beijing-based Agricultural Bank of China is soon expected to launch one of the world's largest-ever IPOs, split between Shanghai and Hong Kong.

And this week, of course, all eyes were on the Shanghai foreign exchange market, where the newly unpegged yuan was trading.

Goldman Sachs & Co. this week began circulating a 52-page report that gazes toward 2020 with predictions of how a global financial center in Shanghai might look.

It forecasts the Shanghai stock market will boast foreign share listings and foreign investors, with equity trading close to $350 billion daily, about 7.4 times current levels. Shanghai will provide the bulk of China's total $455 billion in daily equity liquidity, it says. (The total China figure does include equities and derivatives of mainland China companies that trade in Hong Kong, like class-H shares, but doesn't include the local Hong Kong-listed equities.)

Goldman points to likely expansion of the Chinese bond market, now with around $2.4 trillion in notional debt securities outstanding, which is only half of national gross domestic product, it says the local commodity exchanges will offer important new products, for instance with crude oil futures that it said could become the region's benchmark oil price.

But replace New York and London? Shanghai is a manufacturing center now and that is worth 40% of its GDP, against 20% for what Goldman terms its immature financial system. 'We expect Shanghai to become a large domestic market rather than a broader regional market,' the Goldman team said in its report.

For a time, Goldman says Hong Kong may benefit due to the 'probably very gradual' (read: slow) opening up the Chinese capital account--though the faster Shanghai moves, the more it will pinch opportunities from Hong Kong.

As announced by the State Council in April 2009, the plan is to make Shanghai a 'global financial hub' and shipping center by 2020.

It's a big goal worthy of debate, not least because as global investment firms position for the future it remains unclear how viable a country that considerably limits international currency exchange flows can be as a big player in global finance.

The subject will again be high on the agenda later this month at the city's big annual financial gabfest, the Lujiazui Forum, named for the city's financial district.

In the past year, Shanghai has demonstrated both substance to suggest it is serious about the financial center plan, but also some 'bull' as well.

As for the upcoming listings mentioned by Fang, the government official, the Bank of Shanghai is already on the agenda. He said the brokerage Orient will move rather quickly too.

But while Guotai's Hong Kong subsidiary is known to have listing plans there, its shareholding structure and that of Shenyin have 'some problems,' Fang said.

随着上海越来越多地谈论其作为全球金融中心的未来前景，它正计划着要说到做到，并将为此投入更多的资金。

具有讽刺意味的是，上海市政府并未把本地的上海证券交易所作为其控制的大型投资公司和银行的上市渠道。它更喜欢保留全部所有权，或者北京的监管者还未允许它们上市。

上海市金融服务办公室主任方星海说，这一切都将改变。

周二，方星海在新闻发布会上说，上海当局将推进部分由上海市政府控制的主要中国金融机构进行首次公开募股(IPO)。这位前证交所官员曾长期推动此事。方星海说，这些公司包括东方证券公司、国泰君安证券公司、申银万国证券公司和上海银行，但未提供时间表。

方星海说，凡是能够上市的金融类的市属企业都要去上市，这是上海已经非常明确的一项策略。

在金融系统方面，目前上海金融市场正面临一个重要的夏天，实际上是重要的十年。

总部位于北京的中国农业银行预计将在上海和香港上市，这或许将是世界上最大的IPO之一。

当然，本周所有人的目光都注视着上海外汇交易市场，新近与美元脱钩的人民币正在此交易。

高盛公司(Goldman Sachs & Co.)本周发出了一篇长达52页的报告，报告放眼2020年，对上海全球金融中心的概貌进行了预测。

它预测上海股票市场将拥有外国上市公司和外国投资者，股票日交易额近3,500亿美元，约为目前的7.4倍。中国的股票日流通总额将达4,550亿美元，其中大部分由上海提供。（中国的总流通额包括H股等在香港交易的中国内地公司的股票和衍生品，但不包括香港本地上市公司的股票。）

高盛指出，中国债券市场很可能将扩大。目前中国未偿的名义债务证券仅有2.4万亿美元左右，仅为国家GDP的一半。它说，本地大宗商品交易将提供重要的新产品，例如原油交易期货将成为该地区的原油基准价格。

但能否取代纽约和伦敦呢？ 如今，上海是制造业中心，制造业占GDP的40%，金融系统只占20%，因此高盛称其金融系统不成熟。高盛小组在报告中说，我们预计上海将成为很大的国内市场，而不是更广阔的地区性市场。

高盛说，由于中国资本帐户的开放速度“或许非常渐进式（即缓慢）”，短时间内香港或会受益，但上海的行动步伐越快，它从香港截取的机会就越多。

正如2009年4月中国国务院的声明所称，计划在2020年之前把上海打造成“国际金融中心”和航运中心。

这是一个远大的目标，但值得商榷，尤其是在全球各投资公司筹划未来之际，仍不清楚一个在很大程度上限制货币在国际间兑换流动的国家要想成为全球金融的重要参与者能有多大的可能性。

这个主题又将再一次成为本月晚些时候陆家嘴论坛中的重要议题。一年一度的陆家嘴论坛是上海的大型金融会议，以上海的金融区陆家嘴命名。

去年，上海不但展示了实质性内容以表明其对金融中心计划的认真态度，还展示了它的雄心。

政府官员方星海提到的上市计划中，上海银行的上市已经提上了日程。他说东方证券也将很快采取行动。

尽管国泰君安的香港子公司已有在上海上市计划，但方星海说，国泰君安和申银万国“还有一些股权结构上的问题”需要解决。