【英语国际】美国将在20国峰会上敦促各国继续刺激经济

The U.S. plans to press its economic partners at a summit to move cautiously with plans to tighten their fiscal policies while the global economic recovery remains uncertain, for fear of producing a 'Hoover moment.'

President Barack Obama, worried the fragile world economy could slip back into recession-as it did in the 1930s during the Hoover administration- plans to urge his counterparts at this weekend's Group of 20 meeting to continue some level of stimulative spending, among other policies, as a way of sustaining economic growth. But at precisely the same time, politicians around the world are starting to embrace a newfound desire for fiscal austerity.

European leaders are more cautious about spending, chastened by the example of Greece, where investor confidence was shattered by mounting debt and the possibility of a default, prompting a nearly $1 trillion rescue fund.

In China, officials worry that continued stimulus could create unsustainable asset bubbles. Indeed, one reason China may have pledged Saturday to allow the value of its currency some flexibility is to resist inflation by making imports less costly, economists speculate.

China's announced plan to loosen the tether between its currency and the dollar removed what would have been a sore point from the G-20 agenda, paving the way for tensions over fiscal policy, along with weak domestic demand and large trade surpluses in Germany and Japan, to become a bigger theme at the meeting in Toronto.

Canada, whose weight in the G-20 is magnified this year because it hosts the summit, is pressing for deficit reduction, urging its peers to halve their deficits by 2013. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says he will be push for concrete debt and deficit reduction targets during the Toronto meeting.

A tilt toward austerity is under way in Japan too, which has run up giant debts over the past two decades to shake the country out of its economic doldrums. Prime minister Naoto Kan, who took office June 8, wants to double the country's broad sales tax from the current 5% within several years and cap next year's national budget at this year's level.

'Fiscal policy which relies excessively on deficit bond issuance is no longer sustainable,' he said in his inaugural speech, citing the example of Greece.

A senior Obama administration official said there was only the appearance of division among the leaders. The official said G-20 industrialized and developing countries were acting in roughly the same fashion-easing gently off government spending while trying to convince markets and their electorates they will bring down deficits over the coming three to five years.

The pace of government spending is vital for the global economy, which is recovering modestly from the deep downturn. The debate expected this weekend: What is the biggest threat to growth, diminished demand or escalating debt?

'The No. 1 topic of conversation [at the G-20] will be how quickly should fiscal stimulus be withdrawn,' said Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff. a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. 'The U.S. is at one extreme [pushing growth] while the rest of the world is much more anxious.'

美国计划在20国集团多伦多峰会上敦促其他与会国，要他们谨慎推进其收紧财政政策的计划，因为全球经济复苏依然存在不确定性，美国担心匆忙推进这些计划会重蹈美国胡佛(Hoover)政府在上世纪30年代的覆辙。

Reuters美国财长盖特纳美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)担心依然脆弱的世界经济有可能重新陷入衰退，就像美国上世纪30年代胡佛总统当政时的情况那样，因此他计划在本周末举行的20国集团峰会上敦促其他与会国领导人，要继续将经济刺激支出维持在某种水平上，并伴之以其他政策，以保持经济的持续增长。然而此时此刻，世界各国的政治家们正开始新生出紧缩财政的意愿。

欧洲领导人对于财政支出更持谨慎态度，希腊就是他们的反面教材，这个国家如山的债务和出现债务违约的可能性粉碎了投资者对它的信心，促使欧盟和国际社会承诺拿出近一万亿美元资金来救助希腊。

在中国，官员们担心持续的经济刺激有可能产生无法持续的资产泡沫。经济学家们猜测，中国之所以在上周六承诺要提高人民币汇率的弹性，原因之一就是要通过降低进口价格来抵御通货膨胀。

中国宣布了放宽人民币兑美元汇率波动区间的计划，使人民币汇率这一原本会成为此次20国集团峰会讨论热点的议题脱离了此次峰会的议事日程，从而为与会各国在财政政策方面交锋铺平了道路，而德国和日本疲弱的国内需求和巨额贸易顺差也将成为此次多伦多峰会的更重要议题。

加拿大由于是此次峰会的主办国，因此它在20国集团内的份量得以放大，它将敦促各国削减财政赤字，在2013年之前将财政赤字削减一半。加拿大财政部长费海提(Jim Flaherty)说，在会上他将敦促各国制定具体的债务和财政赤字削减目标。

日本也正倾向于紧缩财政，过去二十年中为摆脱经济停滞，日本已背负了巨额债务。今年6月8日刚刚就任的日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)希望，能在几年内将日本目前为5%的销售税税率上调一倍，并把明年的全国预算额控制在今年的水平。

菅直人在就职演讲中说，过分依赖靠发债弥补赤字的财政政策是不可持续的，他还举希腊的例子来支持自己的观点。

奥巴马政府的一位高级官员说，20国集团各国领导人间的分歧只是刚有个苗头。这位官员说，20国集团内的工业化国家和发展中国家正以大体相同的风格行事，它们一方面逐渐减少政府支出，同时又努力让市场选民相信，政府会在未来三到五年内将财政赤字降下来。

政府支出的流速对全球经济至关重要，世界经济目前正从深度衰退中温和复苏。在本周末的20国集团峰会上与会各国预计会讨论：不断减少的需求和逐步增加的债务，究竟哪个才是对全球经济增长的最大威胁。

哈佛大学的经济学家罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，此次峰会的头号议题将是财政刺激措施应该以多快的速度撤出。曾担任国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家的罗格夫说，美国在推动经济增长方面最积极，而世界其他国家对刺激经济的做法则担忧得多。