【英语国际】澳总理吉拉德承诺将在未来数月举行大选

双语秀   2016-05-17 03:47   71   0  

2010-6-26 02:09

小艾摘要: New Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, having won the office in a Labor Party mutiny that drove Kevin Rudd from power, promised Thursday to go to the polls in 'coming months' for a fresh manda ...
New Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, having won the office in a Labor Party mutiny that drove Kevin Rudd from power, promised Thursday to go to the polls in 'coming months' for a fresh mandate from voters.

But for a party Ms. Gillard said had 'lost its way' under Mr. Rudd, the challenge is winning that mandate. The former prime minister's plunging approval rating -- at 41% earlier this month, down from 74% in March 2009 -- was seen as putting his government in danger of becoming the first since World War II not to secure a second term. By law, the next election must be called by April.

Now Ms. Gillard, a Welsh-born 48-year-old former trial lawyer and the first woman to serve as the country's prime minister, must find a way through the same issues that brought Mr. Rudd down.

First among them is a controversial 40% tax on the 'super profits' of Australia's mining companies, proposed last month. But also playing a part in Mr. Rudd's demise was an earlier decision to shelve a carbon-emissions-trading plan that had been a key climate-change promise in his 2007 campaign -- a decision in which Ms. Gillard acknowledges a role.

The mining tax, which the government thought would win popular support by spreading the wealth from a booming sector, instead fueled public worry about Australia's credibility as an investment destination, and, less of a surprise, led to a hostile standoff with the mining companies, a critical industry for the resource-rich country. The mining companies were furious that they weren't consulted before the tax was announced and that, in subsequent discussions, many of their key complaints were ruled off-limits by the government.

'The election will be over the tax,' said pollster Roy Morgan.

Ian McAllister, head professor at the Australia National University's School of Politics and International Relations, said Ms. Gillard 'absolutely has to' back away from the tax. 'She can't buy into a fight with the miners in an election year.'

In her first speech as prime minister, Ms. Gillard called for a truce. She quickly claimed an early success when global mining giants BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Ltd., along with the industry lobbying group called the Minerals Council of Australia, agreed to her request that they suspend their antitax ads. The government likewise canceled its ads in support of the tax.

'Already we are seeing our goodwill reciprocated,' Ms. Gillard said. 'This does give me confidence that there is room for negotiation, there is an ability to work together in the spirit of goodwill.'

A BHP spokeswoman said the company was 'encouraged by the comments' seeking consensus, which a Rio Tinto spokesman called 'a positive first step.' Mitch Hooke from the mineral council said his group had acted 'in the expectation that consultations will be meaningful and constructive.' Mining stocks rallied Thursday on expectations the tax proposal would be overhauled.

But the pleasantries didn't narrow the distance between the two sides -- and it isn't hard to find deep skepticism in the mining industry. Ms. Gillard offered assurances that the budget will be back to a surplus in 2013, a feat that relies on either a windfall from the new mining tax or a reversal on a promised cut to the corporate tax rate. Skeptical miners also note that Treasurer Wayne Swan, chief promoter of the tax, not only kept his position but was promoted to deputy prime minister.

Emissions trading came up at Ms. Gillard's first news conference as prime minister, where she expressed disappointment that Australia doesn't have a price on carbon. But she acknowledged her role in the Rudd government's decision to shelve until 2013 an emissions-trading scheme that had failed to attract the support of Australia's senate, and said a 'community consensus' is required before it can be introduced.

'If elected as prime minister, I will reprosecute the case for a carbon price at home and abroad,' Ms. Gillard added. Under the shelved legislation, Australia would adopt a market-based trading system similar to one in Europe that caps the amount of carbon dioxide that companies may vent. To emit more, a company would have to buy 'carbon permits' in the market. This 'cap-and-trade' system is meant to provide a financial incentive to reduce emissions.

Switching leaders is a high-stakes political strategy -- this was the first ouster of a sitting prime minister since Bob Hawke was unseated by Paul Keating as Labor leader in December 1991. Labor went on to win an election under Mr. Keating in 1993.

'I think the Labor Party have made a very smart move and they made it in the nick of time,' political expert and respected pollster Malcolm Mackerras said. 'I think Abbott would've won the election if Rudd had stayed on.'

'She should call an election straight away while the excitement, euphoria and the honeymoon period are still strong,' said Griffith University political analyst Elizabeth van Acker.
澳大利亚新总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)周四承诺,将在未来“几个月”进行大选,选举新总理。吉拉德在工党内部角力中取得胜利,而陆克文(Kevin Rudd)黯然下台。

吉拉德称,在陆克文领导下的工党已经“迷路”,即将迎来的挑战是能否赢得竞选。前总理陆克文支持率不断下降,从2009年3月时的74%已下降至本月初的41%,人们认为他领导下的政府有可能成为第二次世界大战以来首个不能获得第二次任期的政府。根据法律规定,下次选举必须在4月前进行。

Reuters澳大利亚新总理吉拉德现年48岁的吉拉德出生于威尔士,从事过出庭辩护律师职业,是澳大利亚第一位女总理,她必须找到针对迫使陆克文下台的问题的解决办法。

促使陆克文下台的原因,一是上月计划对澳大利亚矿产企业“超额利润”征收40%的税率,这引广泛争议。但导致陆克文下台的另一个原因是,他稍早决定搁置碳排放总量控制和交易(carbon-emissions-trading)计划,而这是陆克文2007年竞选时做出的应对气候变化的关键承诺,吉拉德承认在这一决定中扮演了角色。

澳大利亚政府原认为,征税方案将让大众分享繁荣的矿产业所创造的财富,因而会获得普遍支持,不料却事与愿违,因公众担忧这有损于澳大利亚作为投资目的地的信誉。不出所料,这导致矿产企业的敌对态度,而矿产业是资源丰富的澳大利亚的关键产业。在征税方案公布前,政府没有咨询矿产企业的意见,这令这些企业非常愤怒,在接下来的讨论中,政府又排斥了他们的许多主要怨言。

民调人士摩根(Roy Morgan)说,选举将主要围绕税收方案进行。

澳大利亚国立大学政治与国际关系学院首席教授麦克阿里斯特(Ian McAllister)说,吉拉德绝对要对征税方案退避三舍,在大选之年她不能与矿产商发生冲突。

在吉拉德出任总理后的第一次讲话中,她呼吁停战。全球矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)和力拓(Rio Tinto Ltd.),以及名为澳洲矿业委员会(Minerals Council of Australia)的行业游说团体同意吉拉德的要求,撤下他们的反征税广告后,吉拉德很快宣布赢得了初步胜利,政府同样也取消了支持征税的广告。

吉拉德说,我们已经看到我们的善意得到了回报,因此,我对磋商空间有信心,我们能在友好的精神下携手努力。

必和必拓一位女发言人说,该公司对于努力寻求共识的讲话深受鼓舞,力拓一位发言人说,这是迈出了积极的一步。澳洲矿业委员会人士胡克(Mitch Hooke)表示,由于预期磋商将是有意义且具有建设性的,所以其团体一直在采取行动。周四矿产股上涨,因预计征税方案将被调整。

但上述的客套话并不能缩窄双方的距离,不难发现矿产企业中弥漫着深深的疑虑。吉拉德保证2013年预算将出现盈余,但这要么源自新矿产税收方案,要么就会改变之前对削减企业税率的承诺。持怀疑态度的矿产商注意到,该税收方案的主要发起人国库部长斯万(Wayne Swan)不仅继续担任国库部长之职,还被提升为副总理。

吉拉德担任总理后的首次新闻发布会上提到碳排放交易计划,当时对于澳大利亚没有碳价,她表示了失望。陆克文政府由于碳排放交易计划未能在澳大利亚参议院获得支持而决定将其搁置到2013年时,她承认在其中扮演了角色,并说在引入该计划前,必须要达成共识。

吉拉德补充说,如果我被选为总理,我将在澳大利亚和海外重提碳价一事。根据已被搁置的立法,澳大利亚将采用与欧洲相似的以市场为基础的交易体系,该体系限制企业排放的二氧化碳数量。如果为了排放更多二氧化碳,企业不得不在市场上购买“碳排放许可“。这一碳排放总量控制和交易体系意味着为减少排放而提供财务刺激。

更换领导人是高风险的政治策略,自1991年12月工党领袖霍克(Bob Hawke)被基廷(Paul Keating)夺走职位以来,这是现任总理首次被赶下台。在基廷的领导下,工党在1993年的大选中获胜。

政治专家兼知名民调人士麦克拉斯(Malcolm Mackerras)说,我认为工党这招棋下得聪明,在关键时刻作出了这一举动,我认为如果陆克文一直在任,反对党领袖艾伯特(Abbott)将取得胜利。

格里菲斯大学政治分析师阿克(Elizabeth van Acker)说,在人们的兴奋、极度愉悦和蜜月期仍很甜蜜的时候,吉拉德应该立即进行大选。
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