【英语国际】疲弱市场是农行IPO头号威胁

This week, premarketing begins for an initial public offering aimed at raising $20 billion to $30 billion in new funds for the last 'Big Four' Chinese bank to list. It is an ambitious, some might even say foolhardy, effort given the rocky state of global capital markets.

But two things are in AgBank's favor: the sheer determination of China's government to make this deal succeed, and the belief among some foreign investors that China, despite concerns about its property prices and tightening credit, still offers a compelling long-term growth story.

Last week, securities regulators in mainland China and the stock exchange in Hong Kong gave their go-ahead to the offering, which will be dually listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Other efforts by Chinese banks to raise cash announced earlier this year have been delayed, a sign Beijing regulators are making the success of the AgBank IPO a top priority.

China's national pension fund has already given the offering a boost by taking up 3.7% of AgBank's shares. And AgBank may opt to scale back the offering if demand falters. But few believe anything short of a global-market meltdown will change the IPO plan.

Among target investors, those within mainland China may be the harder sell. Fears of a slowdown in the economy and concerns about government measures to clamp down on overheating property prices have weighed on the Shanghai Composite Index, which is down 22% for the year.

One measure of the difference in investor sentiment between mainland China and the rest of the world is the price difference between A shares listed in Shanghai and H shares listed in Hong Kong. Currently, the A shares of big lenders such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co. trade at a discount to their H shares of as much as 17% -- a rare occurrence, because historically the A shares trade at a premium.

'A lot of domestic investors are concerned with signs of a downturn for the Chinese economy,' says Jeremiah Fung, a fund manager at HSBC Holdings PLC's China asset-management joint venture who runs two mutual funds targeted at domestic Chinese investors.

One big concern weighing on banking shares is the quality of loans China's lenders made to local governments amid efforts to support the economy with stimulus spending last year.

Results of a government-led inspection into these loans are expected to become public next month, which one investor with a big fund company noted could help remove an overhang of uncertainty from the market.

Despite weak domestic-investor sentiment, foreign inflows into China funds remain strong, even as money flows out of funds invested elsewhere in Asia. As of June 7, China funds have had a net inflow of $1.6 billion since April, according to Citi Investment Research & Analysis. The need to deploy that cash will likely boost demand for AgBank's H-share allotment, investors say.
Another boost will be the expected presence of so-called cornerstone investors who are typically allocated large chunks of an offering in Hong Kong to help market the deal to others.

Hong Kong tycoons are often top candidates for the favorable treatment, as are overseas sovereign-wealth funds. Over the weekend, Dow Jones Newswires reported that Singapore's Temasek Holdings, the Qatar Investment Authority and the Kuwait Investment Authority have all agreed in principle to become cornerstone investors in the offering.

AgBank has long been considered the weakest of China's big banks, with a bigger legacy of bad loans that delayed its coming to market. Oddly, overheating property prices in China's big coastal cities and a sense that the country's best growth prospects are now in the less-developed inland region could turn a historical AgBank weakness, its exposure to rural China, into a positive.

One complaint about China's banking shares is that there isn't much to differentiate them. 'At least ABC,' as AgBank is sometimes known, 'offers a bit better exposure to faster-growing rural areas,' says Johnson Cheung, managing director at Galaxy Asset Management, a Hong Kong-based hedge fund, who says he is carefully considering whether to subscribe to the offering.

AgBank also has the biggest network among China's banks, reaching 320 million customers, according to its prospectus.

Of course pricing, which won't be known until July 6 or 7, will be key. AgBank is expected to fetch a valuation somewhere between Bank of China Ltd. on the low end and ICBC and China Construction Bank Corp. on the higher end -- that is, somewhere between 1.5 and 2.1 times book value. Mr. Cheung says somewhere between 1.5 and 1.8 times book value 'could be attractive.'

Meanwhile, AgBank and its supporters will want to hope that global market sentiment doesn't deteriorate sharply over the next month. Political determination and investor demand for a play on long-term Chinese growth look set to turn AgBank's IPO ambitions into a reality, but they are no match for the power of a market meltdown.

中国农业银行的上市能否成功？

农行首次公开募股(IPO)的预路演在本周开始。这次IPO的目标，是要为“四大”中资银行中唯一还没有上市的这一家筹资200亿美元到300亿美元。考虑到全球资本市场的不稳定状态，这次上市雄心不小，有人甚至可能会说它是蛮干、胡来。

但有两种情况对农行有利，一是中国政府下定决心要让这次上市获得成功，二是一些外国投资者相信，虽然中国的房价和信贷紧缩让人担忧，但它仍然是一个充满诱惑的长期增长题材。

农行IPO将在上海和香港同时进行，上周分别获得了内地证券监管机构和香港证交所的批准。其他中资银行今年早些时候宣布的筹资计划已被推迟，说明北京监管层把农行的成功上市视为重中之重。

全国社保基金入股农行，持股3.7%，已经给这次IPO带来提振。另外，如果需求不旺，农行也可能选择减少发行量。但人们一般都认为，只要不出现全球市场的崩溃，无论什么事情都不会改变农行的IPO计划。

在各类目标投资者中，中国内地的投资者或许更难被说动。由于投资者担心经济放缓，并忧虑于政府调控楼市的措施，上证综合指数已经受到打压，年初迄今下跌了22%。

上海A股和香港H股之间的价差，可以用来衡量中国内地投资者情绪同其他地方的差异。当前，中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)、交通银行(Bank of Communications Co.)等大银行的A股价格较其H股价格最高有17%的折价。这是一种很少发生的情况，因为在过去，A股价格较H股一般都呈现为溢价。

汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)中国合资资产管理公司的基金经理Jeremiah Fung说，很多国内投资者都担忧于中国经济的回落迹象。汇丰这家合资公司管理着两只以内地投资者为目标客户的公募基金。

中国去年在通过刺激性支出支持经济增长的行动中，银行业给地方政府大量贷款。这些贷款的质量引发担忧，是打压银行股的一个重要因素。

政府对这些贷款展开了一项检查，其结果预计在下个月公布。某大型基金公司的一位投资人说，结果的公布或许有助于消除悬于市场心头的不确定性。

虽然国内投资者情绪不振，但国外的中国型基金仍然吸引着强劲的资金流入，而且在此同时，投资于亚洲其他地方的基金还遭遇了资金流出。据Citi Investment Research & Analysis的数据，从4月份至6月7日，投资中国的基金获得16亿美元的净流入。投资者说，这笔现金需要配置，可能会增强农行发行H股的需求。

“基础投资者”预计将会进场，也会增强农行H股的需求。香港市场的证券发行中，这些投资者往往被配售大量证券，以帮助把这些证券推销给其他投资者。

香港富豪和海外主权财富基金通常是这种优惠待遇的头号人选。道琼斯通讯社报道，周末，新加坡淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)、卡塔尔投资局(Qatar Investment Authority)和科威特投资局(Kuwait Investment Authority)全都原则上同意成为农行IPO的基础投资者。

长期以来，农行都被视为中国大银行中实力最弱的一家，其历史遗留不良贷款多于其他银行，推迟了它的上市。但有点奇怪的是，由于中国沿海大城市房价过高，并且人们觉得中国最被看好的增长潜力目前存在于发展程度更低的内陆地区，所以过去作为农行薄弱环节的农村敞口，反而有可能成为它的一个强项。

投资者对中国银行股的一个不满之处，是它们没有多少特点来彼此区别。香港对冲基金嘉理资产管理(Galaxy Asset Management)董事总经理Johnson Cheung说，至少农行对增长更快的农村地区还有一些更好的敞口。他说，他正在细心考虑是否认购农行新股。

农行招股说明书显示，其网络在中国银行界最为庞大，客户达3.2亿。

当然定价会是至关重要的。农行IPO定价将在7月6日或7日才能知晓，预计定价最低相当于中国银行，最高相当于中国工商银行和中国建设银行，即市净率在1.5倍到2.1倍之间。Johnson Cheung说，1.5倍到1.8倍之间的定价可能会有吸引力。

与此同时，农行及其支持者都会希望接下来一个月全球市场情绪不会出现急剧恶化。政治决心，和投资者对中国长期增长概念股的需求，似乎很有可能把农行IPO的雄心变为现实，但它们都赶不上市场崩溃的冲击力。