【英语国际】美国经济通缩可能性降低

For some, deflation may be as unpleasant as death and taxes. But at the moment, it isn't quite as certain.

Many investors think otherwise, flocking to the safety of U.S. Treasurys in spite of rock-bottom yields. Benchmark 10-year notes yield about 3.19%, against an average 4.4% from 2002 through 2007. The 30-year 'long bond' is about 4.12%.

Such low rates are good for the U.S. government, which can lock in lower funding costs for its mounting debt. The government Thursday plans to auction $13 billion in its monthly sale of 30-year bonds.

Yet the yields also speak of impending doom. 'It's a pretty damning statement,' says Jefferies & Co. money-market economist Thomas Simons, suggesting investors are overwhelmingly risk averse and increasingly concerned about deflation.

Certainly, disinflationary forces are in place. That is fairly common after recessions. And given the severity of the latest downturn, it is no surprise the downward adjustment is greater than usual. Consumer prices, which the Federal Reserve would prefer to see growing 1.5% to 2% a year excluding food and energy, are barely rising.

Yet investors shouldn't confuse current conditions with outright deflation. Such an episode, which the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression, is marked by a spiral of falling wages and prices and a generally held view that declines will persist.

That isn't the case today. Wages, for example, started growing again, year on year, in March, and consumers' inflation expectations rose in May to an 18-month high. While investors are worried by recent weakness in some leading indicators, from jobless claims to commodity prices, the signals aren't forecasting a double-dip. The Conference Board's employment-trends index, for example, rose in May for the ninth month in a row and is up nearly 9% from a year ago.

What is critical is that the recovery strengthens and broadens. 'We're one recession away from deflation,' says Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Countering that threat is the likelihood the Fed will keep short-term rates near zero for some time. Mr. Harris expects the Fed to stay on hold until 2012. And if that prospect starts inflation hawks shrieking, so be it. Such worries may actually help soothe the market's deflationary angst.

对某些人来说，通缩就像死亡与纳税一样讨厌，不过在目前，可能并非如此。

许多投资者的想法刚好相反，向着美国财政部债券的安全性蜂拥而去，尽管债券收益已触底。目前10年期基准债券收益率约为3.19%，而在2002年至2007年期间平均为4.4%。30年期长期债券收益率约为4.12%。

债券收益率持低对美国政府有利，美国政府不断增加的债务的成本因而可降低。美国政府周四计划拍卖每月发售的30年期债券数额为130亿美元。

但收益率持低也意味着厄运即将到来。Jefferies & Co.货币市场经济学家西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)说，这种说法相当槽糕，表明投资者完全厌恶风险，并越来越担心通缩。

当然，反对通胀的力量也很强大，这在经济衰退后也很正常。考虑到近来经济下滑的严重性，向下调整的幅度较通常大也不值得奇怪。美联储(Federal Reserve)希望看到不包括食品及能源在内的核心消费者价格指数比一年前上涨1.5%至2%，但该指数目前几乎未见上扬。

但投资者不应将当前的状况与完全的通缩混淆。这种状况，美国在大衰退中也曾经历过，特点是薪资及价格不断下行，而市场普遍认为经济下滑将持续。

但如今的状况并非如此。比方说，3月份薪资比去年开始再度增长，5月份消费者的通胀预期上升至18个月来的新高。尽管投资者因近来从失业率到大宗商品价格等某些先行指标走弱而担心，但并无迹象显示经济会二次触底。例如，世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的5月份就业趋势指数连续第九个月攀升，目前已比去年上升近9%。

关键是经济复苏之势不断扩大加强。美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的美国首席经济学家哈里斯(Ethan Harris)说，我们还要再经历一次衰退，才会到达通缩。

与通缩威胁相对抗的是美联储可能在一段时间内保持短期利率接近零。哈里斯预计美联储在2012年之前将一直保持这一利率。如果这一前景引发坚称通胀者尖叫，那就随他吧。这种担忧实际上有助于缓解市场的通缩焦虑。