【英语国际】美国当前尚无需担心通缩

Inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy are getting harder to find.

Already this week, the Labor Department reported that producer prices fell 0.3% in May from April and that import prices dropped by 0.6%. On Thursday, it is expected to say that consumer prices fell by 0.2% last month.

Crucially, core prices, which exclude volatile energy and food components, also are weakening. Core consumer prices in April were flat against the previous month and up only 0.9% over the previous 12 months. That is the second-smallest annual increase since such records began in 1958.

And prices probably have room to fall further. After all, declines in fuel and commodity prices over the past two months are starting to work their way through the supply chain. Wednesday's producer-price figures showed that core prices at what is known as the earliest, or crude, processing stage fell 1.6% in May after rising a combined 10% in March and April, noted RBS Securities.

If that continues, it will add to disinflationary forces in the U.S. economy, says Nomura Securities economist Zach Pandl.

The deceleration in prices of rents and other services already is in place, thanks to slack in the housing market and the nation's 9.7% unemployment rate. Now, weaker prospects for global growth and the strengthening U.S. dollar could keep a lid on energy and commodity prices as well.

'There's virtually no risk of inflation,' Mr. Pandl adds. That, along with Europe's sovereign-debt crisis, means Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to make any major changes to their accommodative stance when they hold next week's rate-setting meeting.

That said, there are signs rent and wage deflation are starting to slow, while the rebound in consumer spending over the past six quarters suggests a trough in rent prices is near, Barclays Capital says.

Because rental prices heavily influence the calculation of core CPI, such a development would help to stave off deflationary jitters. But spending and jobs growth must be sustained for that to happen.

Thanks to the recession's severity and still-high unemployment, core inflation is likely before year end to fall below its previous record low of 0.7%. But it is only if the recovery stumbles that outright deflation becomes a real concern.

越来越难找到美国经济中的通货膨胀压力。

美国劳工部本周已经公布说，5月份生产者价格较4月份下滑0.3%，进口价格下滑0.6%。预计劳工部周四将公布5月份消费者价格环比下滑0.2%。

重要的是，不包括价格波动较大的能源和食品在内的核心价格也在下滑。4月份核心消费者价格环比持平，此前12个月只上升了0.9%。这是自1958年有纪录以来第二低的年度升幅。

而且价格或许还有进一步下滑的空间。毕竟，过去两个月燃料和大宗商品价格的下滑开始对供应链产生影响。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)旗下子公司RBS Securities说，周三公布的生产者价格数据显示，处于最早（粗）加工阶段的核心价格在3月和4月累计上升10%之后，5月份下滑了1.6%。

野村证券(Nomura Securities)经济学家潘德尔(Zach Pandl)说，如果这种走势继续下去的话，美国经济通货膨胀下降的势头将会增大。

由于楼市疲弱、失业率高达9.7%，房屋租赁等服务价格的上涨已经开始减慢。如今，全球增长前景的变弱和美元的走强也有望限制能源和大宗商品价格的上涨。

潘德尔还说，实际上不存在通货膨胀的风险。再加上欧洲主权债务危机，这些都意味着，当美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)官员下周召开利率会议时，不太可能对他们的宽松立场做出任何重大改变。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)说，话说回来，有迹象显示房租和工资下滑开始放缓，而过去六个季度消费支出的反弹表明租房价格的低谷即将到来。

由于租房价格会严重影响核心消费者价格指数(CPI)的计算，租房价格下滑放缓将帮助消除通货紧缩之忧。不过这需要支出和就业增长的持续才能成行。

由于衰退的严重程度和居高不下的失业率，核心价格的升幅在年底前可能会降至此前0.7%的纪录低点以下。不过，只有当复苏遭遇不顺利时，全面的通货紧缩才会成为真正让人担忧的事。