【英语国际】欧洲危机令亚洲出口商忧心

Economic woes in Europe and the accompanying decline in the euro are already digging into the profits of Asia's manufacturers. The worry is that the pain will spread more broadly if European demand for Asian exports falters.

Companies based in Asia that sell everything from sweaters to solar panels in Europe are feeling the pinch already. Orders placed last year when the euro was 20% stronger against local currencies are now forcing Asian businesses to take losses or renegotiate prices with European customers.

'For euro-based orders, we could lose our shirts and pants and underwear,' says Willy Lin, managing director of Milo's Knitwear International Ltd., a 52-year-old, family-owned sweater maker based in Hong Kong that caters to high-end European labels.

The euro's move could prove a temporary annoyance. The bigger question is whether a slowdown in Europe will sap demand over the longer term for Asian goods. It's critical because Asia's manufacturing economies have become the engines of global growth. And Asia needs Europe as a customer. The European Union accounts for around 13% of exports from Asia's 10 largest economies, excluding Japan, according to Singapore-based bank DBS. The U.S. makes up 11%.

Trade data don't show ill-effects from Europe's stumbles yet. China's May exports grew 48.5% from the year before, or 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the month before. Korea and Taiwan have also reported strong May trade figures. But exports don't respond instantly.

Cuts in European government spending could have 'very negative effects on developing countries that rely on exports for growth,' said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, speaking earlier this month at the Group of 20 meeting of ministers in Busan, South Korea.

Asian economies, especially China, have been criticized for their export-oriented economic models. The countries have pledged to make their economies more reliant on internal demand, creating policies that encourage businesses and consumers to save less and spend more.

'Emerging-market countries have to take actions to advance their own growth to compensate,' for a downturn in Europe, said Mr. Strauss-Kahn.

But those shifts could take years to show results. For now, Asia still needs the developed world to sustain its growth. Hence the worry about Europe.

'There are some early signals showing the euro-zone problems are spreading to the global economy,' the Bank of Korea said last week even as it announced that Korea's domestic economy is performing well. It's still expected to grow more than 5% this year.

The drooping euro is the most immediate threat.

High-end electronics manufacturers have been among the first exposed. CLSA analyst Saurabh Chugh estimates Taiwanese computer maker Acer Inc. gets half its revenue from Europe. In percentage terms, its earnings fall 5% for every 1% decline in the euro versus the New Taiwan dollar, he estimates. Korean giant Samsung Electronics Co. counts 15% of its revenue in euros.

China's solar panel industry has been particularly affected. Solarfun Power Holdings Company Ltd., a Shanghai-based solar-equipment manufacturer, gets 85% of its sales in Europe.

Some fear Asian banks and corporations that rely heavily on European banks for funding could be hurt by a credit crunch in Europe, or a return of the evaporation of trade finance seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Of course, it's possible that Europe's debt woes won't cause too much damage in Asia. Some say Asia's export economies will do fine so long as the U.S. keeps growing, even if Europe slows.

'You'll see continued pressure on Asian export growth, but it's not enough to be qualitatively less optimistic on Asia overall,' says Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets.

欧洲经济危机及相伴而来的欧元下跌已严重影响亚洲制造商的盈利。目前担忧的是，如果欧洲对亚洲出口需求下滑，则这种不利影响的范围将更加广泛。

向欧洲市场发售诸如从羊毛套衫到太阳能电池等商品的亚洲公司已深感此痛。在去年欧元兑本地货币汇率比当前高出20%之时下的订单，目前正使亚洲制造商产生损失，或被迫与欧洲客户就定价进行重新谈判。

Associated Press港口工人走过堆在福建晋江港口的集装箱。欧洲需求下降可能会给亚洲出口商带来不利影响。美罗针织厂(国际)有限公司（Milo's Knitwear International Ltd.）的管理董事林宣武(Willy Lin)说，欧元订单会让其公司输得精光。林宣武现年52岁，管理着香港一家向欧洲高端品牌供货的家族型毛衫制造厂。

欧元的走势可能是暂时性困扰。更大的问题是欧洲经济放缓是否会降低对亚洲商品的长期需求。因亚洲的制造业经济已成为全球经济增长的动力，这一点至关重要。亚洲离不了欧洲客户。根据新加坡星展银行(DBS)的统计，欧盟(European Union)市场占亚洲除日本外前10大经济体出口份额的约13%，美国市场占11%。

贸易数据尚未显示欧洲经济带来的不利影响。中国5月份出口年比上涨48.5%，经季度因素调整后月度环比上行10.9%。韩国及中国台湾地区5月份贸易数据也显强势。但出口的反应不具即时性。

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)本月早些时候在韩国釜山召开的G20财长及央行行长会议上说，欧洲政府开支削减可能对经济增长依赖出口的发展中国家有很大的负面影响。

亚洲经济，特别是中国，因出口导向型经济模式备受批评。亚洲国家已承诺将经济转型为更多依靠内需型的模式，并出台一系列政策鼓励企业及消费者减少储蓄、增加支出。

卡恩说，新兴市场国必须采取措施增进自身经济增长以弥补欧洲经济下缓带来的不利影响。

但这些改变要待许多年方才出现效果。目前，亚洲仍需要发达市场来维持其增长。因而有对欧洲经济走势之忧。

韩国央行(Bank of Korea)在宣布韩国国内经济运行良好的同时，上周表示有初步信号显示欧元区问题正向全球蔓延。韩国经济今年增幅预计仍将超过5%。

而仍在下滑的欧元是当前最直接的威胁。

高端电子制造商是首当其冲受影响者之一。里昂证券(CLSA)分析师Saurabh Chugh估计，台湾电脑制造商宏?股份有限公司(Acer Inc.)收入的一半来源于欧洲。从比率来看，欧元兑新台币每下滑1%，该公司的盈利将减少5%。韩国巨头三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)收入的15%以欧元计。

中国的太阳能电池业受影响特别大。位于上海的太阳能设备制造商林洋新能源(Solarfun Power Holdings Company Ltd.)85%的销售额出自欧洲。

有人担心严重依赖欧洲银行提供资金的亚洲银行及公司可能会因欧洲信贷紧缩遭受重大打击，或者2008年金融危机中出现的贸易融资蒸发现象会再现。

当然，欧洲债务危机也可能不会令亚洲受到太大损伤。有人认为，只要美国经济保持增长，即便欧洲增长下滑，亚洲的出口经济仍会表现不错。

里昂证券亚太市场的首席经济学家斐思伟(Eric Fishwick)说，亚洲出口增长将持续承压，但整体而言，仍不足于从质量上影响对亚洲经济增长的乐观度。