【英语国际】美国经济前景呈现乐观景象

Participants who attended a Federal Reserve automotive industry forum last week are upbeat about the economic outlook, seeing continued growth and declining unemployment this year and next.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday that attendees at its Detroit Automotive Outlook Symposium expect growth rates of 3.1% this year and in 2011 for the U.S. economy.

'Most of the major components of real GDP-particularly consumer spending and business fixed investment-are expected to contribute to the improved forecast for economic growth in 2010,' the report said. 'Economic growth is forecasted to remain solid in 2011, in large part because of an expansion of spending in business fixed investment and residential investment,' it noted.

The survey was based on the responses of 20 participants, hailing from the manufacturing sector, as well as banking, consulting and academia. The Chicago Fed's Automotive Outlook Symposium is an annual event.

The survey found participants expecting the unemployment rate to fall to an average of 9.5% in the final quarter of this year, and to 8.8% at the end of the next year.

Inflation is expected to rise, with the consumer price index rising from 1.5% last year to 1.7% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011. Those price gains would still represent something close to price stability to Federal Reserve policy makers.

Given the auto-centric nature of the event the forecasters were participating in, a key finding was that the survey points to better days ahead for the car sector, although activity is still seen at weak levels. Participants expect car and light truck sales to go from 10.4 million units last year to 11.6 million units this year, and 13.3 million units in 2011. Oil prices are seen to rise a little bit, to $82 a barrel this year from $76.07 last year, and to $87.81 in 2011.

Borrowing rates should not be particularly onerous, with the projected 10-year Treasury note constant maturity averaging 3.85% over 2010 and 4.60% next year.

The Chicago Fed's event was held last week, but the report gives no indication what the participants were thinking about the troubling events in Europe, and how they might affect the U.S. economy. Most central bank officials have sounded a note of worry about what's going on overseas, even though they remain confident the U.S. recovery will not stall out.

芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)上周主办的汽车业论坛上，与会者对经济前景持乐观态度，他们预计今明两年经济将持续增长、失业率会下降。

芝加哥联邦储备银行周一发布报告说，底特律汽车业前景研讨会(Detroit Automotive Outlook Symposium)的与会者预计，今明两年美国经济将以3.1%的速度增长。

报告说，预计构成实际国内生产总值(GDP)的大部分主要领域将有助于2010年经济增长预测的好转，特别是消费者支出和企业固定投资。报告说，预计2011年经济增长将保持强劲，主要原因是企业固定投资和住房投资支出的扩大。

调查是根据从制造业、银行业、咨询和学术界的20名与会人士收集的答案进行的。芝加哥联邦储备银行主办的汽车业前景研讨会每年举行一次。

调查发现，与会者预计今年四季度失业率将降至9.5%的平均水平，明年底将降至8.8%。

预计通货膨胀会上升，2010年和2011年的消费者价格指数(CPI)均将较去年的1.5%有所上升，分别达到1.7%和1.9%。对于美联储决策人士来说，这样的上涨仍代表价格接近稳定。

鉴于研讨会以汽车业为主题，一个重要的发现是，调查显示汽车业前景好转，不过预计汽车业活动仍处于疲弱水平。与会者预计轿车和轻型卡车销量将从去年的1,040万辆上升至今年的1,160万辆，2011年将达到1,330万辆。预计油价将小幅上涨，从去年的每桶76.07美元涨至今年的82美元，2011年将达87.81美元。

贷款利率不应该特别高，预计2010年10年期固定期限国债收益率为3.85%，2011年为4.60%。

芝加哥联邦储备银行是在上周举办的研讨会，不过报告中没有说明与会者如何看待欧洲令人担忧的问题，及其对美国经济的可能影响。大部分美联储官员表示对海外形势感到担忧，尽管他们仍相信美国经济复苏不会停顿下来。