【英语国际】朝鲜令韩国两难

Short of war, how do you punish a state that has nothing? That is the dilemma facing South Korea and its allies in dealing with North Korea in the aftermath of the alleged attack on the Cheonan, a South Korean warship, with the loss of 46 lives.

Lee Myung-bak, South Korea's president, is taking a hard rhetorical line, saying that, unlike in the past when North Korean attacks went unpunished, this time Pyongyang must be held accountable.

In his first international speech since the official report on the March incident, Mr Lee told a weekend gathering of defence officials at the IISS Asia Security Summit in Singapore: “If we once again tolerate North Korea's blatant act of violence, then I believe that will not promote, but endanger, the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula.”

He called for a “grand bargain”, in which Pyongyang would give up its nuclear programme in return for security guarantees and economic aid.

Yet, South Korea's options to bring about that outcome are limited.

Mr Lee has ruled out, for the moment at least, a military response, partly in recognition of Pyongyang's ability to inflict huge damage on Seoul, which lies within easy striking distance of North Korean short-range missiles. The aim, instead, he said, was to “deter further attacks”.

As a first step, Seoul had referred the matter to the United Nations Security Council. Mr Lee said the aim was to persuade Pyongyang to “admit its wrongdoing and pledge never again to engage in such reprehensible action”.

The problem in confronting North Korea is that its leadership has shown high tolerance for pain – so long as it is inflicted on its people rather than itself. In the mid-1990s, the country went through years of famine without apparent damage to the regime. Under such circumstances, sanctions, unless they are targeted at the leadership itself, have limited impact.

Neither the US nor South Korea appears to have much stomach for pushing North Korea towards the brink, with the danger of a refugee crisis or a military backlash that this could provoke.

Robert Gates, US secretary of defence, also speaking at the Singapore security conference, echoed Mr Lee's sentiment that “inaction would be an abdication of our responsibilities”, adding: “For nothing to happen would be a very bad precedent.”

As well as taking part in joint military exercises with South Korea, Mr Gates said Washington was assessing “additional options to hold North Korea accountable”.

The US is thought to be considering a menu of responses, including beefing up South Korea's anti-submarine and anti-missile capabilities. It could also consider increasing the number of US troops stationed on the peninsula, or stepping up searches of North Korean vessels suspected of smuggling illegal goods.

On the sanctions side, the US could seek a repeat of attempts to cut financial flows, deemed an effective way of targeting the leadership rather than the impoverished North Korean people.

Yet, these options might have a limited effect so long as China continues to support Pyongyang economically. Beijing has refused to accept at face value the findings of an international investigation into the March 26 attack on the Cheonan, which concluded that North Korea had been responsible for torpedoing the vessel.

General Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of staff of the People's Liberation Army, said China remained committed to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, but gave no indication of what pressure might be brought to bear to achieve that aim. Instead, he appealed to nations concerned to “remain calm and exercise restraint and avoid escalation of tension”.

Mr Lee professed to be satisfied with China's response, but in private must be frustrated at Beijing's apparent willingness to let Pyongyang off the hook.

除了战争，人们还能怎样惩罚一个一无所有的国家？这就是目前韩国及其盟友在处理朝鲜问题时面临的两难境地。此前，韩方宣称韩国“天安”舰被朝鲜击沉，共有46人遇难。

韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-Bak)一反以往任由朝鲜挑衅而不予制裁的态度，发表了措辞严厉的声明，称此次平壤方面必须对此负责。

李明博上周末在新加坡召开的第九届亚洲安全峰会(IISS Asia Security Summit)国防部长会议上表示：“如果我们再次容忍朝鲜的公然暴力行为，那么我相信，这不会促进、而是会危及朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定。”这是自韩国就3月26日的天安号事件发表官方调查报告以来，李明博首次在国际会议上发言。

李明博倡导实施“大妥协”(grand bargain)，呼吁平壤方面放弃核计划，以换取安全保障和经济援助。

不过，韩国实现这一目标的可选路径十分有限。

至少就目前而言，李明博已排除了诉诸武力的可能，在一定程度上是因为平壤方面有能力给首尔造成严重破坏——首尔就处于朝鲜短程导弹的轻松打击距离之内。李明博表示，目的在于“阻止更多攻击”。

作为第一步，首尔将此次事件提交给联合国安理会处理。李明博表示，其目的是劝说朝鲜政府“承认其错误行径，并承诺不再进行此类应受谴责的行为”。

解决朝鲜问题的症结在于，该国领导人表现出了极强的忍痛能力——只要这些痛苦是加在普通百姓头上，而与自己无关。上世纪90年代中期，朝鲜遭遇了连年饥荒，其政权却没有受到明显的损害。在这种环境下，除非针对领导层，否则制裁的作用将非常有限。

无论是美国还是韩国，似乎都没有多少欲望将朝鲜推向灭亡的欲望，担心这会引发难民危机或军事反击。

美国国防部长罗伯特?盖茨(Robert Gates)也在新加坡亚洲安全峰会上发了言。他对李明博的观点表示附和，认为“无作为是一种渎职行为”，并补充表示：“不了了之将开启一种非常恶劣的先例。”

盖茨表示，除了与韩国进行联合军事演习，华盛顿方面还在评估“让朝鲜负起责任的其它手段”。

据信，美国正考虑一系列应对措施，包括加强韩国的反潜和反导能力。美国可能还考虑增加美国驻朝鲜半岛军力，或加强搜查涉嫌走私非法物品的朝鲜船只。

在制裁方面，美国可能会寻求再次切断对朝鲜的资金流动——此举被视为打击朝鲜领导人的有效方式，同时又不会伤害到穷困的朝鲜人民。

不过，只要中国继续在经济上援助朝鲜政府，上述手段可能就很难发挥作用。北京方面表面上已拒绝接受对天安号事件的国际调查结果。该调查的结论是：天安号遭鱼雷攻击沉没系朝鲜所为。

中国人民解放军副总参谋长马晓天表示，中国继续致力于朝鲜半岛无核化，但他并未说明中方会施加何种压力，以实现这一目标。相反，他呼吁有关国家“保持冷静和克制，避免事态恶化和升级”。

李明博公开表示对中方的反应感到满意，但私下里必然会对北京方面放过朝鲜的明显意愿感到沮丧。

译者/何黎