【英语国际】朝鲜领导层变动 或为金正日传位铺垫

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il shook up his country's leadership ranks Monday, a move that appeared part of a broad strategy to consolidate his power before he passes control to his son.

North Korea's official media said Monday that Mr. Kim installed his brother-in-law to a role considered the country's second-most-powerful. He also named a longtime family confidant to what is in effect the No. 3 position, the premiership.

That represents North Korea's highest-level leadership shuffle since the beginning of this year, a period in which 11 prominent members of the regime have died, been replaced or been shuffled out of view, according to a count by the website NK Leadership Watch.

The meaning of the moves is subject to speculation, as is much of the trickle of official news out of the secretive and authoritarian North. The appointments didn't appear to be a direct response to the sinking of a South Korean warship in March, analysts said, as the North's announcement didn't mention the ship or the subsequent standoff with Seoul, which has accused the north of sinking the ship.

'There was no discussion about the Cheonan stuff,' said Kim Young-soo, a professor at Sogang University in Seoul. 'It was more focused on internal politics and administration.'

Yet in a broader sense, analysts have seen Pyongyang's leadership shuffle and the sinking of the ship, the Cheonan, as components of Mr. Kim's strategy to rein in disorder and rally North Koreans around the country's military ahead of what they believe is his plan to hand power to his third son, Kim Jong Eun.
Since the North Korean leader suffered a stroke-like illness in August 2008, the country has conducted missile tests and a nuclear test, a series of provocations analysts believe are aimed at rallying the country around the military. They speculate that the North's alleged sinking of the Southern warship was a continuation of this effort.

North Korea's frayed relations with South Korea have cut off an important source of income, forcing it to rely more heavily on China, which is under international pressure to rein in the North.

Pyongyang has also been coping with protests, hunger and deaths since the government's apparently unsuccessful attempt late last year to manage economic reform. Pyongyang's issuance of new currency and closure of markets in December backfired, causing the regime to look for people who could take blame away from Mr. Kim.

Those efforts resulted in shake-ups in several lower positions Monday, said Kim Young-soo, a professor at Sogang University in Seoul, noting the use of the term 'recall' in the North's official announcement.

'In North Korea, when the regime 'recalls' an official, it means the person wrongly implemented policies and should take responsibility for it,' said Mr. Kim. 'So the 'recalled' officials, not Kim Jong Il, are publicly blamed for their failed handling of the administration.'

Monday's announcement by North Korea's official media said Mr. Kim named Jang Song Taek, who is married to Kim Jong Il's younger sister, as vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, North Korea's highest state body. Analysts have considered Mr. Jang the second-most-powerful person in the country in recent years, a role certified with Monday's posting.

Kim Jong Il is chairman of the Defense Commission, his only official title.

The leader also named a longtime family confidant to the premiership, a position that is nominally the second in command in the country's structure but that analysts believe still ranks below the job he gave to his brother-in-law. Choe Yong Rim succeeds Kim Yong Il, whose travels overseas gave him more contact with foreign leaders than even Kim Jong Il. The two Kims aren't related.

Mr. Kim personally presided over a parliamentary session where the changes were approved. The meeting was special because it was the second time parliament met this year; it usually meets once. Mr. Kim didn't attend its regularly scheduled meeting in early April.

Last week, another of Mr. Kim's close associates, Ri Je Gang, died in a car accident a day after attending an art performance with Mr. Kim. Mr. Ri, who was 80, held a high-ranking but not the top job in the Ruling Workers' Party. His title belied his power in Pyongyang, though, which was thought to trail only that of Mr. Kim and his brother-in-law.

Mr. Ri was active in promoting heir apparent Kim Jong Eun and had been close to his late mother. It isn't known whether Mr. Ri was a candidate for the premiership. His death has fueled speculation that he may have been deliberately killed in a power struggle, but analysts note that if that were the case, it is unlikely his passing would have been announced in North Korea's state media.

The high-level death followed the disappearance earlier this year of another official, Pak Nam Gi, who some South Korean media reports said was executed for the country's economic-reform mess.

Mr. Jang has been seen since 2007 as Mr. Kim's closest aide, and is believed to be playing a key role in rallying support among the country's elite for Kim Jong Eun to succeed the dictator.

Mr. Jang, who is 64 years old and whose background is in political operations of the regime, was appointed just last year to the defense commission.

'Kim wants to keep more tight grip on party elites and people by giving more power to Jang,' says Cheong Seong-chang, director of inter-Korean studies at the Sejong Institute, a private think tank in Seoul.

Mr. Jang becomes one of four vice chairmen of the 11-person commission, though he is the one closest to Kim Jong Il.

The new premier, Mr. Choe, 81, has been associated with the ruling Kim family for decades. He served as a confidential secretary to Mr. Kim's father, Kim Il Sung, who started North Korea in 1948 and led it until his death in 1994. He most recently served as chief secretary of the Pyongyang City Committee of the Korean Workers' Party and, in recent months, attended numerous public functions with Kim Jong Il, including a trip to the remote city of Hamhung and opening of an indoor swimming pool in Pyongyang.

Mr. Choe was economic planning minister in the 1980s, mining minister in the 1990s and chief prosecutor in Pyongyang earlier this decade.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images朝鲜周一召开全国最高人民会议，金正日（图片中间一位）让其妹夫担任一个被认为权力位居全国第二的职位。他还任命一位长期以来的家族亲信担任朝鲜总理。这张照片由朝鲜官方新闻社发布。周一，朝鲜领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)对领导层进行了调整。此举有可能是他在让儿子接班之前，为巩固自身权力而实施的整体策略的一部分。

朝鲜官方媒体周一说，金正日让其妹夫担任一个被认为权力位居全国第二的职位。他还任命一位长期以来的家族亲信担任朝鲜总理，这个职位在事实上排在第三位。

这是朝鲜今年以来最高级别的领导层调整。据网站“NK Leadership Watch”（朝鲜领导层观察）计算，年初至今，这个政权共有11位知名成员或逝世、或被替代、或销声匿迹。

Reuters金正日的妹婿张成泽朝鲜是一个行事秘密的威权统治国家，和它流出来的很多官方消息一样，上述举动的意图也只能靠猜测。分析人士说，这些人事安排并不像是对3月份韩国天安号军舰沉没事件的直接因应，因为朝鲜的声明并没有提到这艘军舰，也没有提到后来两国之间的僵局。韩国方面指控朝鲜击沉了天安号。

首尔西江大学(Sogang University)教授金永秀（音）说，朝鲜没有谈到天安号，上述举动更侧重于国内政治和政策实施。

分析人士相信，金正日将把权力传给第三子金正云(Kim Jong Eun)。他们曾说，朝鲜调整领导层和天安号沉没事件，从更宽泛的意义上来看，都是金正日在实施传位计划之前，稳定国内局势、把朝鲜人团结在军方周围的整个策略的具体组成部分。

Reuters金正日家族的长期密友崔永林金正日曾在2008年8月患上一种类似中风的疾病，自那以来，朝鲜试射了多枚导弹，并进行了一次核试验。分析人士相信，这一系列挑衅行为是为了把整个朝鲜团结在军方周围。他们猜测，朝鲜（被指）击沉天安号是这种努力的一个延续。

朝鲜同韩国的紧张关系导致它失去了一个重要的收入来源，迫使它更加依赖中国，而国际上正在给中国施加压力，要它对朝鲜加以管束。

朝鲜政府曾在去年年底尝试进行经济改革，但看来并不成功，后来发生的示威、饥饿和死亡一直让它疲于应付。平壤在去年12月发行新币、关闭市场，结果引起国内的反弹，于是朝鲜政府找人来给金正日充当替罪羊。

金永秀说，这些措施导致周一数个较低层级岗位的调整。他提醒注意朝鲜官方声明中所提到的“罢免”一词。

金永秀说，在朝鲜，当政府“罢免”一位官员时，意思就是这位官员错误地执行了政策，应该承担相应的责任，所以是这些被“罢免”的官员，而不是金正日，因为政策执行失败而受到公众指责。

朝鲜官方媒体周一发表声明说，金正日任命妹婿张成泽(Jang Song Taek)担任朝鲜最高国家机构国防委员会副委员长。分析人士认为张成泽是近年来朝鲜第二大掌权人物，他的这一角色由周一的声明得到了确认。

金正日为国防委员会委员长，这是他唯一的官方职务。

金正日还任命家族的一位长期密友崔永林(Choe Yong Rim)担任总理一职。总理名义上是朝鲜权力结构中的二把手，不过分析人士认为该职位仍在张成泽之下。崔永林接替的是金永日(Kim Yong Il)。金永日曾多次出访海外，他与外国领导人的接触甚至比金正日还要多。金正日和金永日并无亲属关系。

金正日亲自主持了全国最高人民会议，会上批准了领导班子的改组。此次会议是一次特别会议，因为这是今年以来的第二次，而全国最高人民会议通常是每年举行一次。金正日没有出席4月初的例行会议。

上周，金正日的另外一位亲密助手李济刚(Ri Je Gang)在与金正日观看了一场艺术表演后的次日因车祸丧生，享年80岁。李济刚生前在执政党朝鲜劳动党中担任要职，但并非一把手。不过，他的职务让人误以为他在政府中的权力不大，而实际上他的权力被认为仅次于金正日和张成泽。

李济刚积极支持既定接班人金正云，与金正云已故的母亲关系密切。不清楚李济刚是否是总理一职的人选。他的去世引发了他可能是在权力斗争中被故意杀害的猜测，不过分析人士说，如果他是被谋害的，他的去世不太可能会在朝鲜官方媒体中加以报导。

在李济刚去世之前，今年早些时候另外一位官员朴南基(Pak Nam Gi)失踪。一些韩国媒体报导说，他是因朝鲜经济改革一团糟的局面而被处决了。

自2007年以来，张成泽就被视为金正日最亲密的助手，人们认为他在为金正云接替金正日获得朝鲜精英层支持中发挥了重要作用。

现年64岁的张成泽背景为朝鲜政府政治运作。他去年刚刚被任命为国防委员会委员。

位于首尔的私人智库韩国世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)朝韩关系研究主任郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)说，金正日希望通过更多地授权张成泽来更多地控制党内精英和民众。

张成泽将成为11人国防委员会中四位副委员长中的一位，不过他是与金正日关系最密切的一个。

现年81岁的新总理崔永林与执政的金正日家族有着数十年的渊源。他曾是金正日的父亲金日成的机要秘书。被任命为总理之前，曾是朝鲜劳动党平壤市委书记。近几个月，他与金正日一道出席了很多公开活动，包括视察边远城市咸兴，参加平壤一家室内游泳池的开业典礼。金日成于1948年建立了朝鲜，至1994年去世之前一直是朝鲜最高领导人。

80年代，崔永林担任经济规划部长，90年代任矿业部长，本世纪初任平壤市检察长。