【英语国际】分析：鸠山辞职与美中日三国关系

It is always entertaining when news from the outside world intrudes upon a seminar. In Hong Kong yesterday I was talking at an event, organised by the Asia Society, on US-Chinese relations. As we were going in, we got the news that Yukio Hatoyama was to resign as prime minister of Japan.

What's that got to do with the relationship between Washington and Beijing?

Quite a lot, as it happens. In his short period as prime minister, Mr Hatoyama had raised the intriguing prospect that Japan might be distancing itself a little from its very tight “special relationship” with the US.

He has talked of his desire for an east Asian community and a huge delegation of his party members flew to Beijing, late last year, for a grin-and-grip with President Hu Jintao.

He also promised to move the US marines' base on Okinawa. It is his failure to keep this promise that has provoked Mr Hatoyama's downfall.

So does the fall of Mr Hatoyama end Japan's “tilt towards China” – if that was what was going on?

I doubt it's that simple. It is true that Mr Hatoyama has found it impossible to gainsay the combined might of the US and Japanese security establishments – both of which insisted that the current deal on Okinawa could not be unscrambled. It is also the case that the current alarm over North Korea has reminded Japan of the value of the American security guarantee.

But while Mr Hatoyama was sometimes naive in his ideas – and crass in the way he expressed them – he reflected an important strand in Japanese thinking, which will not go away.

The presence of the American military is not universally popular – which is why Mr Hatoyama made his promise in the first place.

Furthermore, there are many Japanese opinion-formers – particularly in the Democratic party but also in the long-ruling opposition LDP – who think that Japan must adapt to the rise of China, by striving harder to build a good relationship with Beijing, even if that comes partly at the expense of traditional ties with Washington.

That school of thought will not disappear with the fall of Yukio Hatoyama.

外面世界的新闻打断一场研讨会，始终是一件有趣的事。昨日我在香港一个以美中关系为主题的研讨会上发言，主办方是美国亚洲协会(Asia Society)。在我们步入会场的时候，我们听到鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)辞去日本首相的新闻。

这个动态与美中关系有何关联？

事实上，关联不小。在担任首相的这段不长的时间内，鸠山由纪夫带来了一个耐人寻味的可能，即日本可能与关系非常密切的美国稍稍拉开距离。美日拥有多年的“特殊关系”。

鸠山由纪夫曾谈到有意创建一个东亚共同体。去年晚些时候，他所在的政党派出一个阵容强大的代表团访问北京，与中国国家主席胡锦涛微笑和握手。

他还许诺搬迁美国海军陆战队在冲绳岛的基地。正是由于未能兑现这一诺言，才引发了他的下台。

那么，鸠山由纪夫的下台，会不会终结日本“向中国倾斜”——如果那确实是近期趋势的话？

我不太相信事情有那么简单。没错，鸠山由纪夫意识到，面对联合起来的强大的美日安全机构，他无法说不；美日安全机构都坚称，有关冲绳岛的现有协议是不可变更的。此外，目前朝鲜引发的紧张局势，也向日本提醒了美国安全保障的价值。

但是，即使鸠山由纪夫有时在想法上有些幼稚，在表达这些想法时又有些粗糙，但他反映了日本的一条重要思路，这种思路是不会消失的。

美国军力的存在并不受到所有人欢迎，这就是为什么鸠山由纪夫当初要做出上述承诺。

此外，日本有许多舆论导向者（尤其是在民主党内，但也有一些是曾经长期执政的反对党自民党人士）认为，日本必须适应中国的崛起，具体来说就是要付出更大努力与中国构建良好关系，即便这在一定程度上要以牺牲与美国的传统关系为代价。

这一学派不会随着鸠山由纪夫的下台而消失。

译者/和风