【英语国际】日本首相辞职 东京股市平静如常

Japan's prime minister resigning? Business as usual for the Tokyo stock market.

Yukio Hatoyama's reign at the head of Japan's government is over. After a swathe of stories Tuesday that he was facing growing pressure to resign and a long slide to opinion survey approval ratings of less than 20%, it's barely a surprise. Still, just eight months into the troubled DPJ-led administration, you might be forgiven for imagining uncertainty about where Japan goes from here could spread a wave of consternation in Tokyo's markets.

Not a bit of it. Seasoned traders in Tokyo barely batted an eyelash as the news began to emerge soon after trading began Wednesday. Point of fact, by 0145 GMT, the Nikkei Stock Average was up 0.1%, bouncing back after the market opened lower in your everyday response to a weakening overnight on Wall Street. And some observers say Hatoyama's resignation may actually be good for the stock market in the longer run.

'It's not like we are on the verge of losing a leader who has high support rating with superb policies,' said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, speaking before Wednesday's news broke.

In stepping down, Hatoyama will become the fourth straight prime minister to leave his post after about a year--or less--in office. And history has shown that the Japanese stock market has a Teflon attitude when it comes to political uncertainty.

Anyway, what has Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan done to lift the stock market? Nary a thing.

First, he scared off investors by introducing business-unfriendly plans such as cutting emissions by 25% from 1990 levels over the next decade, spooking some of the country's leading industrial companies like car- and steelmakers. His party also proposed raising the minimum wage and called for companies to stop hiring temporary workers altogether on factory floors.

'Anyone but Mr. Hatoyama would be good to the corporate sector as the DPJ has been going to the opposite direction of pro-business policies,' said Kyoya Okazawa, Credit Suisse's head of equity.

And a promise to make expressways toll free--which will take place on some routes on an experimental basis from late this month--caused selling in heavyweight railway companies when the party introduced the idea last year. Investors were concerned that railway operators might suffer passenger declines.

So, Hatoyama resigning? A case of same old, same old for Tokyo traders.

日本首相辞职会对股市造成什么影响？东京股市一切照常。

鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)作为日本首相的日子已经结束。周二，大量报道称他面临着越来越大的辞职压力，民意调查的支持率大幅下跌至20%以下。在此之后，他的辞职已几乎不会让人感到意外。当然，你要是作出如下设想也是情有可原：鸠山政府蹒跚走了八个月就寿终正寝，日本未来的不确定性可能会给东京股市造成一轮恐慌。

Zuma Press东京一家证券公司外的电子股价牌然而，股市丝毫未受影响。对在周三股市开盘之后不久便出现的辞职新闻，经验老道的东京股市交易员甚至连眼睛都没眨一下。受前夜华尔街股市下跌影响，日本股市低开，之后出现反弹。事实上，截至格林尼治标准时间0145，日经平均指数(Nikkei Stock Average)上涨0.1%。部分观察人士说鸠山由纪夫的辞职长期而言或许对股市是个利好消息。

在周三公布辞职消息之前，三菱UFJ-摩根士丹利证券公司(Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities)资深投资策略师藤东德宏 (Norihiro Fujito)说，目前的情况并不是我们即将失去一位支持率很高、政策很受欢迎的领导人。

辞职后，鸠山由纪夫将成为连续第四位在位时间仅一年左右或不到一年的日本首相。历史表明日本股市在政治不确定时期具有很好的绝缘性。

鸠山由纪夫的日本民主党可曾采取过何种措施提振股市？丝毫没有。

首先，他推出的不利于商业发展的计划使投资者感到恐慌，例如在未来10年把二氧化碳排放量从1990年的水平降低25%，这一计划使日本的汽车和炼钢等部分主要工业公司寝食难安。他的政党还提议提高最低工资并要求各公司停止在所有工厂雇用临时工。

瑞信(Credit Suisse)证券部负责人冈口乔也(Kyoya Okazawa)说，除了鸠山由纪夫，任何人上台对企业部门都有好处，日本民主党已经在不利于企业的政策方向上越走越远。

去年，日本民主党提出了让高速公路免收通行费的承诺，导致市场抛售部分权重铁路股。投资者担心乘客减少会让铁路运营商蒙受损失。本月末，日本部分高速公路将试验性地免费通行。

因此，鸠山由纪夫辞职又怎样？对东京的交易员来说，这是个老掉牙的话题。