【英语国际】李稻葵：中国楼市问题比金融危机前的美国更严重

The problems in China's housing market are more severe than those in the US before the financial crisis because they combine a potential bubble with the risk of social discontent, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University and a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary policy committee, said recent government measures to cool the property market needed to be part of a long-term push to bring high housing prices under control.

He added that there were still signs that the economy was overheating and recommended modest increases in interest rates and the level of the currency.

“The housing market problem in China is actually much, much more fundamental, much bigger than the housing market problem in the US and UK before your financial crisis,” he said in an interview. “It is more than [just] a bubble problem.”

He was speaking ahead of yesterday's announcement by the State Council that it had approved a plan to reform real estate taxes, the clearest indication yet that the government will for the first time impose an annual tax on some residential housing in order to rein in rising prices. The news sent shares in China down 2.4 per cent.

The unusually forthright comments from Mr Li contrast with the growing view among economists that the crisis in Europe will lead China to avoid further measures to tighten policy, including currency appreciation.

Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, reinforced that impression yesterday when he said it was too early for big economies to withdraw stimulus measures.

“The debt crisis in some European countries may impede Europe's economic recovery,” he said in Tokyo. “China will make sure it maintains a sense of crisis.”

Mr Li said the high cost of housing could hamper future growth by slowing urbanisation. Rising prices were also a potential political flashpoint, especially among younger people who felt locked out of the property market.

“When prices go up, many people, especially young people, become very anxious,” he said. “It is a social problem.”

In spite of the sharp slowdown in property sales and the troubles in Europe, he said economic activity was still too strong. “China is running the risk or is on the verge of overheating,” he said. Although he added: “I would say the situation is not out of control.”

As well as calling for modest increases in deposit rates, which are currently negative in real terms, he said a gradual appreciation in the currency would help companies prepare for when the renminbi was considerably stronger.

“The most important thing is to restart the process of renminbi adjustment, no matter how small it is,” he said.

中国央行的一名顾问表示，中国住房市场的问题比金融危机前的美国更为严重，因为中国的问题结合了潜在的泡沫与社会不满的风险。

清华大学(Tsinghua University)教授、中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵表示，近期政府出台的旨在冷却房地产市场的措施，需要成为长期努力的一部分，以求控制住高企的楼价。

他还表示，中国经济仍有过热迹象，并建议小幅提高利率和人民币汇率水平。

李稻葵在接受采访时表示，中国住房市场的问题实际上比西方金融危机之前美国、英国住房市场的问题根本得多，也大得多。他说，这不只是一个泡沫问题。

李稻葵发表上述讲话后不久，中国国务院昨日宣布，已批准一项改革房产税的计划。这是迄今最明显的迹象，显示中国政府将首次对某些住宅征收年度税，以遏制不断上涨的楼价。这条消息传出后，中国股市应声下跌2.4%。

李稻葵不同寻常的直率言论，与经济学家圈子中逐渐占据上风的观点形成反差——这种观点认为，欧洲的危机将使中国得以避免出台进一步措施（包括人民币升值），以收紧政策。

中国总理温家宝昨日强化了这种印象，他表示，现在还不到大型经济体撤销刺激措施的时候。

温家宝在东京表示，欧洲一些国家的债务危机可能阻碍欧洲的经济复苏。中国将确保有危机感。

李稻葵表示，住房价格高，可能减缓城市化进程，从而影响未来经济增长。楼价不断上涨，还是一个潜在的政治引爆点，尤其是在觉得自己被排除在房地产市场外的年轻人中。

他说，楼价上涨让许多人（尤其是年轻人）变得非常焦虑。这是一个社会问题。

他表示，尽管中国的房地产销售已经大幅减缓，欧洲也遇到麻烦，但中国的经济活动仍过于强劲。他说，中国要么正在承受过热风险，要么正处于过热边缘——尽管他补充说，他并不认为局面已经失控。

除了呼吁小幅提高存款利率（目前中国的实际存款利率为负数）外，李稻葵表示，让人民币逐步升值，将有助于企业为人民币显著走强后的局面做好准备。

他说，最重要的是重启人民币汇率调整过程，无论幅度有多小。

译者/和风