【英语国际】美国股市或已浮现买进时机

Has the worst of the selloff been seen? Has enough overbubbly optimism been wiped out of the investing masses by this recent selloff? J.P. Morgan stock analyst Thomas Lee seems to think so, citing three reasons he thinks investors threw in the towel, making it a good time to do some buying:

1. Analysis Paralysis: Proxy for Buy-Side Capitulation. For the first time since the correction started (April 23rd), we saw demonstrable 'analysis paralysis' from our clients. That is, despite rationally saying valuations are attractive, they were unable to find any stocks they were willing to buy at any price.

2. AAII Diffusion Index (% Bulls less % Bears) fell into negative territory. This fell to -21% this week, reflecting a broad-based decrease in investor confidence. As shown in Figure 1 below, a push into negative territory is historically associated with past correction lows.

3. In past intraday Crashes (a la 5/6's 'Flash Crash') markets stabilize average 30 days later. It has been 21 days since the intraday decline of 9%. Since 1900, in the 6 rior instances of 9%-plus intraday crashes, markets tend to bottom by day 32.

So what areas does Mr. Lee advise poking around? In the short term you might look to some of the areas that were battered the most during the recent selloff. Building products is the industry with the biggest decline since the S&P's April 23 peak, down nearly 29%, J.P. Morgan says.

最严重的抛售是否已经出现？最近的这轮抛售是否充分打消了投资者过于乐观的情绪？摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)分析师Thomas Lee认为是这样，并阐述了他认为投资者已经认输抛售、因而现在是不错的买进时机的三个原因。

1. 分析麻痹：也就是买方投降式抛售。自本轮股市调整开始以来(4月23日），我们首次看到客户的“分析麻痹”的明显表现。也就是说，虽然从理性上说，当前的估值很有吸引力，但客户却找不到一只他们愿意买进的股票，无论价格怎样。

2. 美国个人投资者协会扩散指数(AAII Diffusion Index，即看涨者百分比与看跌者百分比之差）跌入负数区间。本周该指数跌至-21%，反映出投资者信心普遍下滑。如下图所示，该指数进入负数区间在历史上与之前的股市调整低点相关。

3. 在过去的盘中崩盘事件中（比如5月6日的“闪电崩盘”），市场平均在30天后持稳。而自5月6日盘中重挫9%迄今已21天。1900年以来的六次跌幅达9%的盘中重挫中，市场往往在第32天触底。

那么Lee建议在哪些领域寻找机会呢？短期内可以关注在最近的抛售中受打击最严重的领域。摩根大通说，自标准普尔4月23日触顶之后，建筑产品行业是下滑幅度最大的，跌幅近29%。