【英语国际】短线观点：美国“不救”通用汽车

A General Motors executive once said that he thought “what was good for the country was good for General Motors and vice versa”. Does it follow that the US as a whole would benefit from the robust treatment now being handed out to GM?

It does not look as though the market sees it that way. The midnight news that the US government would not extend GM and Chrysler the $21.6bn in funds that they were requesting and would instead give them a tight deadline to avoid bankruptcy brought a sharp end to the March rally.

At mid-session in New York, US stocks were down 6 per cent from their peak last week. Commodities, as measured by the Dow Jones-AIG index, were also down about 6 per cent after their recent rally. Emerging markets did worse. Volatility rose, as did the dollar.

Why such a reaction? GM's credit had been extremely illiquid for months, trading at levels that implied a default was a high probability. Its share price had already underperformed the rest of the market by more than 90 per cent during the past five years. And the collapse in US domestic car sales – they have fallen 50 per cent since 2007 to half the levels typically seen in the 1960s – has been well noted. Terrible news was in the price.

So why sell off yesterday? First, it was a surprise. People had not expected the White House to get so tough. Traders hit the political alarm bell.

Second, the systemic effects of a bankruptcy may not be in the price; for example, even if the companies would still employ workers to build cars, the government insures their underfunded pension plans.

Thirdly, it tells us something about the market. There was heavy short interest at the onset of the rally, and money flowed out of retail mutual funds as it continued.

So it looks like this was a bear market rally, fuelled by short sellers taking profits.

通用汽车(General Motors)的一名高管曾说过，他认为“凡是对国家有利的，对通用汽车也有利，反之亦然”。这是否意味着，作为一个整体，美国将获益于政府给予通用汽车的猛药？

看上去市场似乎不这么认为。昨日午夜传来消息，美国政府不会向通用和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)提供它们请求的216亿美元资金，而是给了它们一个避免破产的紧迫最后期限，这一下子逆转了3月份股市的反弹。

纽约股市午盘，美国股指较上周的峰值下滑了6%。以道琼斯-AIG指数(Dow Jones-AIG index)衡量，最近上涨的大宗商品价格也下滑了大约6%。新兴市场的表现更糟。波动性和美元汇率均有所上升。

为什么会有这样的反应？几个月来，通用汽车信贷的流动性一直很差，其交易水平暗示有相当高的违约几率。过去5年，该公司股价的表现低于市场整体逾90%。而美国国内汽车销售的崩溃（自2007年以来已减少50%，跌至20世纪60年代典型水平的一半）引起了广泛关注。价格方面的消息相当糟糕。

那么，为什么昨日会出现抛售？首先，它是一个意外。人们未曾预料到白宫会如此强硬。交易员们敲响了政治警钟。

其次，破产的系统性效应也许尚未计入价格。比如，即使这两家公司仍将雇用工人制造汽车，但政府将为它们资金不足的退休金计划提供保险。

第三，这告诉了我们有关市场的一些情况。在涨势之初，市场的卖空兴趣就很浓厚，而随着涨势继续，零售共同基金纷纷遭遇赎回。

因此，3月的涨势看起来像是一轮熊市上涨，由意在锁定利润的卖空者推动。

译者/和风