【英语国际】朝鲜将与韩国断绝往来 紧张形势激化

North Korea said Tuesday it will 'totally freeze' relations with South Korea and pull out of a nonaggression pact with Seoul, marking the widest rift between the Koreas in two decades and raising pressing questions over the next moves by the regime in Pyongyang and its main ally, China.

In a late-evening announcement in Asia, North Korea further severed inter-Korean ties a day after Seoul penalized Pyongyang for allegedly torpedoing and sinking a South Korean ship. It also emerged Tuesday that the North told its troops and people last week to prepare for confrontation with the South.

The North 'formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on nonaggression between the North and the South and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation,' it said in the announcement.

North Korea frequently lobs incendiary rhetoric across the border. But its apparent withdrawal from armistice pacts marks a departure from an almost-ritualized pattern of interaction with the outside world for about 20 years, in which it creates a crisis, then seeks monetary and security concessions for ending it.

While Pyongyang could still seek negotiations, for now it appears to be ratcheting up tensions at the point in the cycle where it would typically try to extract favors.

The secretive and authoritarian regime's motivations remain unclear. In mostly severing economic ties with the South, it cuts off a vital source of foreign currency. Such a move could suggest that Pyongyang is spoiling for war -- or, that it is confident that it has implicit backing from its chief ally and economic partner, China.

Such questions, in turn, cast further scrutiny on Beijing's stance toward Pyongyang, a bilateral relationship that is perhaps the world's most secretive. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in Beijing this week for a round of economic and strategic talks, has failed so far to coax China's leaders to publicly condemn North Korea. Analysts and U.S. officials say China's leaders appear split over how to handle North Korea and presented with few good options.

South Korea last week accused the North of the March 26 sinking of its patrol boat Cheonan, after a military-civilian panel presented the results of its investigation, including parts of a North Korean torpedo recovered from the scene.

North Korea's response Tuesday was its fullest yet to the allegations and penalties, and its timing, well after its customary announcement hours, signaled that the North's leadership likely made the decision late.

Seoul had no immediate response. South Korean officials planned to host Mrs. Clinton Wednesday and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama Friday.

U.S. officials say they haven't seen evidence that the North is preparing for military action. But the North's escalation and detachment is dangerous, they say, because it increases the risk of miscalculation by both sides.

The U.S. appears limited in the amount of further insight it is gleaning from the Chinese. During meetings in Beijing, Mrs. Clinton and her aides discussed North Korea's internal political situation with Chinese leaders, senior U.S. officials say.

These officials said the sides discussed leader Kim Jong Il's health and the results of his trip to Bejing earlier this month, but had to tread carefully in discussions given Beijing's longstanding alliance with Pyongyang.

The U.S. is handicapped in part because it isn't in direct contact with China's military, said senior U.S. officials. The U.S. has regularly sought talks with People's Liberation Army leaders to discuss contingency plans should Kim Jong Il die and his country become destabilized. The Chinese military has refused. In January, Beijing formally froze all military-to-military contacts with the U.S. to protest Washington's multi-billion dollar arms sales to Taiwan.

U.S. officials say Chinese leaders have appeared split on North Korea. Some officials were 'frustrated' by North Korean's recent actions, a senior U.S. official said. Outward-looking members of Beijing's Foreign Ministry often acknowledge the gravity of threats posed by Pyongyang.

But the PLA, which has a military alliance with North Korea, is protective. As many as one million Chinese died fighting on the side of North Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War.

Some analysts have speculated a rift may be forming between China and Mr. Kim, pointing to Mr. Kim's visit to China earlier this month, which was shorter than some expected. But they say China doesn't want to risk destabilization in North Korea, which could unleash chaos and refugees and potentially lead to Seoul's control of the North, putting a military ally of the U.S. directly on China's border.

Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank, says Chinese officials appear to believe their best strategy is to hang on and hope the next generation of North Korean leaders will be better to work with.

Pyongyang's Tuesday statement called for a full halt of cooperation between the two Koreas, and said the North will expel South Korean officials from the joint industrial park that is the largest economic project of the two countries. Some cooperation would evidently remain: The North didn't say it would expel South Korean workers at some 120 South Korean companies in the Kaesong zone, which employs 40,000 North Koreans.

The North's statement also didn't specify which of several nonaggression pacts forged with the South since the 1970s it was abrogating.

Most recently, the North's cycle of provocation and favor-seeking appeared to be repeating itself in November when a North Korea warship engaged in a firefight with South Korean patrol boats near the inter-Korean maritime border in the Yellow Sea. South Korean boats badly damaged the North Korean vessel.

Instead of seeking a meeting and demanding money or concessions from the South, North Korea appears to have launched its surprise attack on the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.

Analysts say Mr. Kim and other leaders may have grown confident that no countries will challenge it militarily after it tested two nuclear explosives, the most recent one last May 25. Some also believe Mr. Kim is flexing the North's military muscle to win support for one of his sons to eventually succeed him as the country's leader.

North Korea's motives may be more focused, analysts say. Pyongyang is intensely critical of the South's Mr. Lee, who was elected in 2007 after promising to seek reciprocity from the North for the hundreds of millions of dollars in aid Seoul provided annually. Mr. Lee conditioned further aid on steps by North Korea to end its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

周二，朝鲜说将“全面冻结”与韩国的关系，并废除与韩国签订的互不侵犯条约。此举造成朝鲜半岛南北双方之间二十年来最大的裂痕，平壤政权及其主要盟国中国的下一步举动成为目前十分紧迫的问题。

周一，汉城在指责平壤用鱼雷炸沉了韩国军舰后对平壤进行惩罚。一天后，朝鲜在深夜的声明中进一步切断了朝韩之间的联系。周二还爆出消息称，朝鲜上周已要求其军队和人民准备面对与韩国的冲突。

朝鲜在声明中说，朝鲜正式宣布，即刻起实施坚决措施全面冻结朝韩关系，全面废除朝韩互不侵犯协议，全面终止朝韩合作。

Associated Press周二在首尔，一名活动人士在一场反对朝鲜的集会上撕扯朝鲜国旗朝鲜经常挑起南北双方之间的口舌之争。但此次公然退出停战协定标志着朝鲜放弃了约20年来它所采取的近乎仪式化的与外界交往的模式，即它先造成一个危机，再寻求以资金和安全方面的让步结束这一危机。

尽管平壤方面仍可寻求进行谈判，但现在它显然正在激化紧张局势。通常它努力利用这一时机榨取一些好处。

目前仍不清楚这个隐秘的独裁政权的动机为何。它切断了与韩国的关系在很大程度上便切断了一个重要的外汇来源。此举可能预示着平壤急切渴望战争，或者它坚信拥有其主要盟友及经济合作伙伴中国的绝对支持。

此类问题进而让北京对平壤的立场变得更加引人关注。中朝双边关系或许是世界上最秘密的关系。本周在北京参加第二轮中美战略与经济对话的美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)至今未能说服中国领导人公开谴责朝鲜。分析师和美国官员说中国领导人显然在如何处理朝鲜问题方面存在分歧，且几乎没有好的选择。

韩国上周指责朝鲜应为3月26日天安号巡逻舰沉船事件负责。在此之前，一个军民联合小组公布了调查结果，其中包括从沉船现场发现的朝鲜鱼雷碎片。

朝鲜周二针对韩国指控及惩罚所做出的回应是至今最全面的回应，其时机大大晚于其常规声明时间，显示出朝鲜的领导层很可能很晚才做出这个决定。

首尔方面未立即做出回应。韩国官员计划于周三接待希拉里•克林顿，并于周五接待中国总理温家宝和日本首相鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)。

美国官员说他们尚未看到证据表明朝鲜正在准备采取军事行动。但朝鲜扩大事态并废除南北协定的作法很危险，因为它加大了双方误判的风险。

美国从中国打探到的进一步消息显然有限。美国高级官员称，在北京参会期间，希拉里•克林顿及其助手与中国领导人讨论了朝鲜的内部政治形势。

这些官员说与会各方探讨了金正日的健康问题，以及他本月早些时候访华成果，但考虑到中国政府一直将朝鲜视为盟友，这些对话开展得小心翼翼。

美国一位高级官员指出，美国对此有些无能为力，部分原因在于中美并没有直接的军事联系。美国曾试图定期与中国人民解放军进行磋商，探讨在金正日去世、朝鲜陷入动荡的情况下有何应急方案，但中国军方表示了拒绝。今年1月份，中国正式冻结了与美方的军事交流，抗议美国向台湾出售价值数十亿美元的武器。

美国官员说中国领导人似乎在对朝鲜的态度上有分歧。一位美国高级官员说，朝鲜近期举动令部分中国官员心生“挫败感”。中国外交部一些眼观全局的官员经常承认平壤带来了严峻挑战。

但是与朝鲜缔结有军事同盟关系的中国军方是朝鲜的保护伞。在1950-1953年的朝鲜战争中，上百万中国军人为保卫朝鲜而阵亡。

一些分析师猜测中国和金正日之间可能出现了矛盾，因为本月初金正日访华行程短于预期。但他们说中国不愿冒险让朝鲜陷入动荡，这不仅会引发骚乱和难民潮，还可能导致韩国接管朝鲜，让韩国这个美国军事盟友与直接与中国接壤。

檀香山智库太平洋论坛(Pacific Forum CSIS)主席科萨(Ralph Cossa)说，似乎中国官员相信最好的策略就是按兵不动，寄希望于下一代朝鲜领导人能够更好合作。

韩鲜方面周二宣布切断与韩国的一切往来，并将驱逐两国最大经济合作项目开城工业区里的所有韩国官员。部分合作项目显然有望得以保留：在园区有约120家韩国企业，雇有约40,000朝鲜人，朝鲜方面没有说要动手驱逐韩国工人。

朝鲜方面并未详细说明自70年代以来签署的朝韩互不侵犯条约中哪些遭到废除。

就在不久前，朝鲜还在循环上演先挑衅再谈条件要优待的老一套戏码。去年11月份，一艘朝鲜战舰在黄海韩国水域内与韩国巡逻艇交火，被韩国火力重创。

此次朝鲜没有寻求举行会议、索要资金或逼韩国让步，而是似乎自行向天安舰发起攻击，这一意外举动夺去了46名韩国水兵的生命。

分析师认为金正日及其他领导人或许已变得更加自信，认为在试射了两枚核弹后没人敢挑战自己的军事实力。一些人相信金正日是在炫耀朝鲜的军力，为自己儿子的接班铺路。朝鲜上一次试射导弹是去年5月25日。

分析师说，朝鲜的动机可能更有针对性。朝鲜方面一直在严辞抨击韩国总统李明博，这位2007年当选的总统在竞选时候承诺要为韩国每年向朝鲜提供的数亿美元援助换回朝方更多回应。李明博为日后更多援助开出了附加条件，要求朝鲜逐步放弃发展核武。