【英语国际】中国欲在亚洲立威 邻国转投美国寻庇护

Beijing's increasing diplomatic and military assertiveness is unnerving its Asian neighbors in ways that could bolster the U.S.'s strategic position in the region.

Fears that China is siding with Pyongyang over North Korea's alleged sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March has rattled South Korea's and Japan's governments and re-energized their commitments to military alliances with the U.S., officials from both countries said.

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama publicly cited the North Korean threat last week in recommitting Tokyo to stationing U.S. Marines on the island of Okinawa.

Further afield, countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam have also been seeking closer ties to the U.S. in recent months, according to American and Asian diplomats. These countries are quietly voicing fears about China's expanding military and economic power. Analysts say that the more China has sought to assert its regional authority, the more many Asian leaders have pressed Washington to maintain -- if not increase -- its military and diplomatic presence.

The U.S. 'should be sending China thank you notes' for its handling of the North Korea issue, said Ralph Cossa, a former U.S. Air Force colonel who heads the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think tank. China 'very much played into the hands of both the U.S. and Hatoyama's interests,' he said.

South Korea's strong ties with Beijing have been tested by China's reaction to Pyongyang's alleged torpedoing of the South Korean vessel, the Cheonan.

China waited nearly a month to send condolences to South Korea for the loss of 46 of its servicemen. Chinese President Hu Jintao rankled Seoul by hosting North Korean leader Kim Jong Il this month in a string of meetings in Beijing. South Korea President Lee Myung-bak had visited China just days earlier and hadn't been told of Mr. Kim's visit, according to South Korean officials.

Last week, South Korea made public its investigation into the Cheonan's sinking and formally charged North Korea with launching the torpedo. But China's government continues to express skepticism toward the results of Seoul's probe. North Korea has denied any involvement in the attack.

China has 'taken note of the result of the South Korean investigation,' Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said Tuesday. 'We have also taken note of the DPRK's response,' she added, referring to the North's formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Chinese scholars reject criticism of Beijing's handling of relations with Seoul. Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, says China needs to maintain its neutrality over the Cheonan incident because it isn't sure the outcome of the investigation is accurate. He says Seoul could have fabricated the investigation's results to frame Pyongyang.

'The chance of fabrication might be 1%. The chance that this is real is maybe 99%. But this is the difference between peace and war. So we need to be 100% certain,' said Mr. Shen.

Beijing's public paralysis on the Cheonan feud may flow from what it sees as a lack of good options. It doesn't want to position itself on the wrong side of the international community, but it also doesn't want to facilitate any action that could destabilize the North Korean government and lead to chaos that could spill into its territory and, potentially, lead to control of the North by Seoul, putting a military ally of the U.S. on China's border.

Mr. Shen says China will likely to remain loyal to North Korea for a simple strategic reason. 'We need North Korea to check and balance the American military presence in South Korea and Japan,' he says, just in case, for example, there were a conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan.

Recent tensions between Beijing and Tokyo offer another stark example of how China's growing assertiveness has rattled the region.

Mr. Hatoyama entered office last year pursing a policy line very much in China's interest: a more 'equal' relationship between Tokyo and Washington, and the removal of American troops from Okinawa. Japan's leader has also repeatedly discussed the idea of creating an 'East Asia' community modeled after the European Community.

Still, China-Japan relations have soured significantly in recent months. In early May, Japan filed a formal protest to Beijing after a Chinese ship chased a Japanese coast guard vessel that Tokyo says was conducting marine surveys within a Japanese zone. Japan filed another protest a month earlier after a Chinese helicopter buzzed a Japanese ship sailing near the location of Chinese military exercises.

On May 15, Japanese and Chinese diplomats publicly sparred at a meeting in South Korea, after Tokyo's Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada pressed Beijing to shrink, or at least not increase, its nuclear-weapons arsenal. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi countered that Beijing's nuclear strategy was clear and its position on disarmament widely recognized. But Mr. Okada repeated his remarks at a trilateral meeting with South Korea's chief diplomat.

According to people familiar with the exchange, Mr. Yang became so upset that he started yelling at Mr. Okada. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman later called Mr. Okada's remarks 'irresponsible.'

Mr. Okada said such accusations were groundless. 'The Chinese side stated various things during our exchange, but I didn't hear them say once they weren't building up' their nuclear arsenal, Mr. Okada said.

China's growing confidence is also raising fears in Southeast Asia, and stimulating a new courtship of the U.S.

Muslim-majority Malaysia has often had rocky relations with Washington in recent decades. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed openly sought to challenge U.S. economic policies during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. And Kuala Lumpur has regularly attacked American foreign policy in the Islamic world.

Under new Prime Minister Najib Razak, however, Malaysia has increasingly sought to reorient itself toward the U.S., according to American and Malaysian officials.

The two sides have been discussing the possibility of Kuala Lumpur's sending a reconstruction team to Afghanistan, which would make Malaysia one of the few Muslim countries to deploy troops. And Mr. Razak's government just passed through a draconian law regulating the export of dual-use technologies to countries like Iran. American officials have regularly complained that Malaysia has served as one of the primary conduits for military equipment entering Iran.

Malaysian officials have said that its foreign policy shift is largely being driven by its fear of China's growing power. 'We can't afford right now not to be on good terms with the U.S,' said a senior Malaysian official. 'It made no sense for us to be in conflict' with Washington.

中国在外交及军事方面愈加武断的姿态令亚洲邻国感到不安，美国在亚洲的战略地位有望因此得到巩固。

韩国和日本官员说，两国政府均对中国在天安舰沉没一事上支持朝鲜的可能性深感担忧，它们重新加强了与美国军事联盟的承诺。

日本首相鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)上周一改此前承诺，允许美军继续在冲绳驻扎，他当时公开将朝鲜形容为一个威胁因素。

美国及亚洲外交官说，马来西亚及越南等相对远离是非中心的国家也纷纷寻求与美国建立更密切的纽带。这些国家不动声色地对中国军事及经济实力的扩张表达了自己的担忧。分析师说，中国越是想在亚洲树立威信，就会有越多的亚洲国家要求美国即便不能加强、也要保持在亚洲的军事及外交影响力。

夏威夷智库太平洋论坛(Pacific Forum CSIS)主席、前美国空军上校科萨(Ralph Cossa)说，美国应该给中国写封感谢信，因为中国对朝鲜问题的处理非常有利于美国和鸠山由纪夫。

调查表明，韩国天安舰3月份的沉没是受到朝鲜鱼雷的攻击。中国对此事的回应使得原本牢固的中韩关系受到考验。

在致使46名韩国水兵遇难的天安舰沉没事件发生将近一个月后，中国才向韩国表示了哀悼。本月初中国主席胡锦涛在京接见朝鲜领导人金正日并举行多次双边会晤，激怒了韩国。该国官员说，韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)先于金正日几天访华，中方对金正日之行守口如瓶。

上周韩国公布了对天安舰沉没事件的调查结果，并正式指控朝鲜发射鱼雷击沉舰船。但是中国政府仍对调查结果表示怀疑。朝鲜则否认自己与此事有任何关系。

中国外交部发言人姜瑜周二说，中国注意到了韩方发表的调查报告，我们也注意到了朝鲜方面做出的反应。

中国如此处理中韩关系激起了外界的批评，中国学者则对此予以反驳。上海复旦大学国际关系教授沈丁立说，中国需要在天安舰沉没一事上保持中立，因为中国现在还无法确认调查结果准确无误。他说，韩国是有可能伪造调查结果加罪于朝鲜的。

他说，调查结果为真的可能性或许为99%，韩国伪造证据的可能性或许只有1%；但是战争与和平之间却是天壤之别，因此我们需要百分之百地肯定。

中国政府之所以在公开场合对天安舰引发的争执表现麻木，或许是因为它原本就没什么好的选择。中国不想让自己站在国际社会的对立面，但也不想助推任何针对朝鲜的行动，因为那样不仅可能撼动朝鲜政权、引发或殃及自身疆土的骚乱，而且还可能导致韩国接管朝鲜，让韩国这个美国军事盟友直接来到自己的家门口。

沈丁立说，中国有可能因一个简单的战略原因而对朝鲜保持忠诚。他说，我们需要朝鲜来遏制和平衡美国在韩国、日本的军事存在，以防某些情况发生，比如中国因台湾问题同美国产生冲突。

近期北京、东京之间的紧张关系同样让人清楚地看到，中国越来越强大的自信是如何搅动了整个地区。

鸠山由纪夫去年上台时寻求的一个政策路线在很大程度上符合中国的利益：东京与华盛顿之间要实现一种更加平等的关系，美国部队要撤出冲绳。他还曾多次谈到按欧共体模式建立“东亚共同体”的想法。

但近几个月中日关系已经明显恶化。5月上旬，日本向北京发出正式抗议，原因是中国一艘船只对日本海上保安厅的一艘船只展开了追逐，据东京方面说，这艘船当时正在一个属于日本的海域从事海洋测量。一个月前，日本还曾发出另一份抗议，原因是一艘日本船只在中国军事演习地附近航行时，遭到中国一架直升机示警。

5月15日，在一场于韩国举办的会议上，因日本外相冈田克也(Katsuya Okada)敦促中国削减、至少不要增加核武库，中日外交人士发生公开争执。中国外交部长杨洁篪反驳说，中国的核战略是清晰的，其裁军立场得到了广泛承认。但在一场同韩国外长举行的三方会谈中，冈田克也又重复了他的言论。

据了解这场交流的人士说，杨洁篪变得激动起来，开始朝着冈田克也大喊大叫。中国外交部一位发言人后来说，冈田克也的言论是不负责任的。

冈田克也说，这种指责没有根据。他说，在我们的交流中，中方陈述了多种情况，但我一次也没有听到他们说他们没有增加核武库。

中国自信心的增强也在东南亚各国引起担忧，促使它们重新向美国示好。

近几十年，以穆斯林为多数的马来西亚同美国的关系常常不稳。1997年亚洲金融危机期间，前总理马哈蒂尔(Mahathir Mohammed)公开寻求挑战美国的经济政策。该国政府还曾经常性地攻击美国在伊斯兰世界的外交政策。

但美国和马来西亚官员说，在新总理纳吉布(Najib Razak)领导下，马来西亚越来越多地寻求重新靠拢美国。

双方一直在讨论马来西亚向阿富汗派谴重建团队的可能性。如果此事谈成，马来西亚将成为在阿部署军队的少数几个穆斯林国家之一。另外，纳吉布政府刚刚通过了一项严格的法律，限制向伊朗等国出口军民两用技术。美国官员曾经常抱怨说，马来西亚已经成为军事装备进入伊朗的主要渠道之一。

马来西亚官员曾表示，它转变外交政策的主要原因是忧心于中国力量的崛起。马来西亚一位高官说，我们现在无法不与美国修好，我们同美国发生的冲突是没有意义的。