【英语社会】企业如何制定新年计划？

So, how was it for you? The last set of board meetings I have attended have all been about the likely outcome for 2009 – and the prospects for next year. Mostly, there is a sense of relief that an annus horribilis is almost over, and a modest hope that the future will be brighter. Inevitably, the projections for 2010 have been in essence financial budgets: a set of estimates about how sales, profits and so forth will unfold in the next 12 months. Very dry stuff – and hardly inspirational.

Having been through this ritual

ad nauseam over the years, I am coming round to the belief that an annual plan based almost exclusively on numbers is insufficient. So, turn the whole process upside down: start any document with the qualitative points, while the numerical forecasts are secondary.

In a way, the annual budget might turn into something of a new year's resolution – a list of firm intentions, rather than just lifeless figures. Instead, there must be some dreams – not sheer fantasy but at least a degree of optimism. Otherwise, why even bother? How else can a business exceed expectations, beyond Samuel Johnson's “limits of sober probability”?

There will, of course, be a perpetual dynamic tension in any boardroom between a cautious, wholly conservative outcome and a vision of wild success. Where to draw the line between the two opposing views each time is the art of management, and also a test of judgment. Obsess too much about the downside, and no one on the team will feel driven to reach for the stars; but imagine only easy perfection, and you can be sure it will become an era of savage disappointment.

Yet, however it is executed, we do need a sense of direction to carry us through the labyrinth of life. As Victor Hugo said: “Where no plan is laid, where the disposal of time is surrendered merely to the chance of incident, chaos will soon reign.” Such a feel for sequence and strategy might not take the form of a written record; but I find that a plan in black and white exerts a powerful disciplining force.

Every December, I draw up a list of personal objectives – mainly surrounding my work. I never discuss the individual items with anyone, or whether I have succeeded. Why so secret? Perhaps because they are an eccentric mix of the impossibly ambitious and the trivial. They are less about reforming my bad habits, and more about particular projects that I want to undertake.

Curiously, I rarely look back at past lists – they seem so irrelevant to my current aspirations that I simply can't get excited about them. I always boost my list with a few near certainties that I am highly confident will receive a tick. Anyway, as Oliver Goldsmith warned in “The Vicar of Wakefield”, his novel: “The hours we pass with happy prospects in view are more pleasing than those crowded with fruition.” As everyone knows, the older you get, the more you appreciate the sensation of anticipation – too often the arrival at a longed-for destination can seem like an anti-climax.

So, what of the future? Predictions are a dangerous game, so I shall tread carefully. I suspect there will be minimal respite next year from the economic challenges, but at least most entrepreneurs are better prepared for the fight. Costs have been cut, working capital reduced, sacrifices made and excess shed.

Some competition has been eliminated, and other rivals will disappear in due course. The corporate landscape is being rearranged, while the well-managed and liquid players seize advantage. As ever, winning will be less about government action, and more about individual will, application and luck.

Some years, I wonder whether my guilt at not getting ahead and meeting more of my self-imposed targets is altogether a healthy response. Last week, I e-mailed a tremendously successful old acquaintance about a business idea. He responded saying he was on his yacht sailing to the Caribbean. I sat at my office desk, contemplating the London rain outside, and hated the monkey on my back.

Then I returned to business, and my list for next year.

你们情况如何？我最近参加的一系列董事会会议，议题都是2009年可能的结果以及对明年的预期。大多数情况下，人们都有一种松了口气的感觉——多灾多难的一年即将过去，同时谨慎地期望未来会更美好。无可避免的，对2010年的预测本质上都是些财务预算：一系列对未来12个月销售、利润等情况的估计。非常枯燥——没有多少鼓舞人心之处。

经历了多年这种令人作呕的仪式后，我开始慢慢地相信：年度计划几乎完全依靠数字是不够的。所以，让我们把整个过程颠倒过来：任何文件的开头都以定性内容开头，然后再是数字预测。

在某种程度上，年度预算也许会变得有点像新年决心（一系列坚定的目标），而不仅仅是毫无生机的数字。但是，其中必须要有一些梦想——不是纯粹的幻想，但至少要有一定的乐观。否则，我们为何还要烦心？企业如何还能够超越预期，超越塞缪尔•约翰逊(Samuel Johnson)“合理概率的界限”？

当然，在任何一个会议室，在谨慎、完全保守的结果与疯狂成功的愿景之间，都会存在一种永恒的动态张力。每次在两个对立观点之间的何处划线，都是一种管理艺术，也是对判断力的考验。过多地纠缠于不利方面，团队中就没有人有动力去摘天上的星星；但只想像轻松的完美景象，那么可以肯定，未来将变成极度失望的时代。

不过，不管如何实施，我们的确需要一种方向感，带领我们走出人生的迷宫。正如维克托•雨果(Victor Hugo)所言：“如果不制定计划，对时间的支配就完全受制于事件的概率，混乱很快就会来临。”这种对顺序和战略的感想也许没有书面形式；但我发现，用白纸黑字写下来的计划具有强大的约束力。

每年12月，我会列出一系列个人目标——主要是围绕我的工作。我从不与任何人谈论其中的条目，或我是否取得了成功。为何如此隐密？或许是因为它们是不可能达成的雄心与琐碎小事的奇怪混合。其中更多的内容是关于我想开展的具体项目，而不是改正我的坏习惯。

奇怪的是，我很少会回顾过去的清单——它们看上去与我当前的志向毫不相关，因此根本无法令我感到兴奋。我总是会在清单中加上少量我非常确信能在近期实现的内容。不管怎样，正如奥立佛•高德史密斯(Oliver Goldsmith)在其小说《威克菲尔德牧师传》(The Vicar of Wakefield)中写到的：“我们抱着美好期望度过的时光，比硕果累累的时光更令人愉快。”每个人都知道，一个人年纪越大，就越重视期盼的感觉——太多时候，当期盼许久的目标实现时，人们可能反而会感到失落。

那么，未来会怎样？预测是一个危险的游戏，所以我会小心行事。我猜测，明年经济挑战的缓解将是微乎其微的，但至少大多数企业家对未来的战斗做好了更充分的准备。成本已经削减，营运资本已经降低，牺牲已经做出，过度已经去除。

一些竞争已经消除，其它竞争对手将会适时消失。企业界的格局正在重新调整，管理良好且流动性强的企业正占据优势。与过往一样，获胜更多地不是取决于政府行为，而是取决于个人意愿、实践和运气。

这些年，我一直在疑惑，我对自己没有进一步努力实现更多自我设定的目标而怀有负疚感，这是否是一种健康的反应。上周，我就一个商业电子给一位极为成功的老熟人发了一封邮件。他回信说，他正坐在游艇上，向加勒比海驶去。我坐在办公桌旁，凝视着窗外的伦敦雨，开始讨厌起背上的重担来。

然后，我回到了我的生意以及我明年的清单上。

译者/董琴