【英语生活】冷空气与说大话

The first working week of the new decade has been characterised by a curious mix of cold and hot air. The cold air has been blowing out of the Arctic and Siberia; the hot air has been blowing out of the mouths of senior businessmen. The first has turned out to be surprisingly warming. The second, utterly chilling.

The snow and ice that have hit Europe and the US are popularly believed to be a bad thing for the economy. Workers can't get to work or have to stay at home to look after children because lily-livered head teachers have decided icy playgrounds are dangerous. Those few who turn up to work spend hours idly gazing out of the window at the snow wondering how they are going to get home.

In fact, there is no evidence that cold weather costs the economy anything at all. A report last week from the Centre for Economics and Business Research says the effect is negligible: any lost productivity quickly gets made up, especially in an economy that is not running at full capacity.

However, I think the true picture is still better than this: a cold snap may actually increase output as it improves workers' morale in four different ways.

For a start, the simple fact of having successfully arrived at work makes you feel a hero. Before you even take off your coat (and hat, gloves, scarf, galoshes, etc), you have already scored a victory over the weather and this early-morning success puts you in a winning frame of mind. Second, the weather allows you to bond with colleagues by giving you a shared interest. Now that The X Factor is finished in the UK, no one watches the same things on telly and so topics of conversation are hard to find. Last week, the first 10 minutes of the day was happily spent discussing the relative rigours of dealing with ice in Muswell Hill versus Colliers Wood – a comparative show of valour that achieves the bonding effect of an outward bound training course but with none of the expense or palaver.

The third reason for the productivity boost is that cold weather makes the office a good place to be. When you have been out in the cold it is great to get into the warm, especially when the heating bills are being paid by someone else.

And finally the experience of being cold gets the blood moving and makes you feel like being active. Cold countries have higher productivity than warmer ones, and this may be part of the reason.

Having successfully got into the office last week, and bragged about the ice on my front steps (considerable), it was time to get down to some work and think seriously about what the new year will hold for businesses.

First, I read an interview in the Financial Times with Alan Middleton, head of PA Consulting, in which he said: “I think 2010 will to some extent be a continuation of 2009.” If what he meant was that in 2010 consultants would continue to pass off drivel as wisdom, he had already proved himself right. Then I read Allan Leighton's advice to businesses for the new year. “During uncertain times, it is focused, positive and decisive leadership that is required ... Business needs to adapt to the new realities and get on with driving momentum, being proactive and looking for ways to keep edging forward. Survive and thrive.”

Maybe one should forgive the two Al(l)ans for these platitudes and conclude that the problem was as much with the question as the answer. There are some things it makes sense to forecast – such as how much snow is going to fall overnight – and some things it doesn't. The weather changes; the characteristics of good businesses don't. When was the year businesses were advised to lose focus, go backwards, wither and die?

In search of more useful forecasts, I went to the Met Office website. Alas, there was little sign of focus here: on Wednesday morning the Tuesday forecast was still up. So I read instead the description of what its board of directors is supposed to do. “The role of our executive is to lead, direct and manage the Met Office effectively in order to ensure a successful delivery of the aims, objectives and targets ... The members ... operate as a corporately cohesive collective with a shared interest in the successful achievement of our aims ...”

Its job should not to be blowing out hot air – instead it should be telling us exactly when the cold snap is going to end.

冷热气流的奇异交织成为新十年第一个工作周的特征。冷空气从北极和西伯利亚吹来；热空气出自企业高层之口。结果是，前者温暖得出乎意料，后者则让人不寒而栗。

人们普遍认为，袭击欧洲和美国的冰雪天气对经济不利。工人们没法去上班，或者必须呆在家里照看小孩——因为胆小怕事的校长认定，结冰的操场太危险了。少数几个到单位上班的员工则会花上好几个小时，懒散地盯着窗外的雪，想着该怎么回家。

事实上，没有证据表明，寒冷天气会对经济造成任何损失。经济和商业研究中心(Centre for Economics and Business Research)上周发布的报告称，影响可以忽略不计：生产力蒙受的任何损失都会很快得到弥补，尤其是在一个并非满负荷运转的经济体中。

但我认为真实的情况比这更好：寒流可能其实还会提高产出，因为它可以通过以下四种途径鼓舞员工士气。

首先，仅仅是成功到达单位这一点，就会让你感觉自己像个英雄。甚至在你脱去外套（还有帽子、手套、围巾和橡胶套鞋等）之前，你就已经在与天气的较量中赢得了胜利，而这项一大早取得的成就，将使你进入赢者的精神状态。其次，天气可以帮你与同事建立感情，因为它给了你们一个共同感兴趣的话题。现在《The X Factor》已在英国谢幕，大家看的电视节目都不一样了，因此很难找到谈话话题。新十年的第一个工作周，人们在上班的头十分钟快乐地讨论着马斯威尔•希尔区和Colliers Wood区的地面结冰哪个更难对付。这项比谁表现得更英勇的活动，既达到了建立感情的效果，又省去了拓展训练课程的开支和废话。

提振生产力的第三个原因是，寒冷的天气令人们乐意呆在办公室里。在寒冷的室外呆过后，进入温暖的室内是件很棒的事情，尤其是在取暖费由别人埋单的情况下。

最后，寒冷的感觉会加快血液循环，让你感到充满活力。寒冷的国家之所以比较温暖的国家拥有更高的生产力，部分原因或许就在于此。

那周，在成功进入办公室，并就家门前台阶（数目不少）上的结冰吹嘘了一通后，我感到是时候着手做些工作，就新一年将为企业带来什么认真思考一番了。

我先是阅读了英国《金融时报》对PA咨询公司(PA Consulting)主管艾伦•米德尔顿(Alan Middleton)的采访。他在采访中表示：“我认为在某种程度上，2010年将是2009年的延续。”如果他指的是，咨询公司在2010年将继续用废话冒充智慧，那么他已经证明了自己的观点。接着，我阅读了阿兰•雷顿(Allan Leighton)对各家企业的新年建言。“在不确定时期，需要的是专注、积极而果断的领导人……企业需要顺应新的现实，跟上主流趋势，先发制人，想方设法继续前进。生存下来并蓬勃发展。”或许我们应该原谅艾伦与阿兰的上述陈词滥调，并且认定，问题本身与回答一样有问题。有些事情预测起来是有意义的——比如夜间的降雪量——有些事情则毫无意义。天气在变，优秀企业的特征不变。试问企业什么时候得到过这样的建议：分散注意力、倒退，走向消亡？

为了寻找更多有用的预测，我登陆了英国气象局(Met Office)网站。哎呀，那上面几乎看不到一点用心做事的迹象：周二的天气预报到了周三早晨还挂在网上。我于是转而阅读了该局董事会的职责描述。“我们领导层的职责是有效地带领、指导和管理英国气象局，确保各项目的、目标和指标的成功达成……各位董事……作为一个在成功实现目标方面享有共同利益的团结一致的集体行使职权……”

它的职责不该是吹热气，而是应该确切地告诉我们，这股冷空气到底何时结束？

译者/章晴