【英语中国】中国强劲经济数据推高风险资产

Investors rushed for risky assets yesterday as strong data out of Asia set a bullish tone for global equities, commodities and extended a further reprieve for the euro.

“Market drivers in the last 24 hours include, in no small part, economic reports from China, Japan and Australia that show accelerating growth,” said John Stoltzfus, strategist at Ticonderoga Securities.

At this juncture, however the extent of the recent correction in equities remains unclear and analysts expect further volatile swings until the trajectory of global economic growth becomes clear.

“Over the next few months, expect the re- pricing process over risk and valuations to continue as the market sorts out the cost of austerity in Europe, tightening in Asia and re-regulation and the demands and risks to the system of a thus far near jobless recovery stateside,” said Mr Stoltzfus.

The renewal of the risk trade yesterday came as many central banks held policy meetings.

Brazil and New Zealand tightened policy while the Bank of Korea, the Bank of England and European Central Bank left rates unchanged at record low levels.

“We expect the euro area economy to grow at a moderate pace in an environment of continued tensions in some market segments and of unusually high uncertainty,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the ECB.

The ECB did not provide any more details about its programme to buy eurozone government bonds.

Economic data was led by news that China's exports in May rose 48.5 per cent year-on-year, confirming Wednesday's reports of a 50 per cent jump. A stronger- than-expected labour report in Australia saw the country's unemployment rate drop from 5.4 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

Annualised first-quarter growth in Japan was revised up to a gain of 5 per cent.

投资者昨日纷纷涌向高风险资产，此前亚洲的强劲经济数据为全球证券与大宗商品市场定下了乐观的基调，并暂时缓解欧元的压力。

“过去24小时内，来自中国、日本和澳大利亚的经济报道成为推动市场的主要因素之一，报道显示这些国家的经济增长正在加速，”Ticonderoga证券的策略师约翰?斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)表示。

然而在这个节骨眼，近期股市的回调深度依然不够明朗，且分析师们预测，在全球经济增长的轨迹清晰起来之前，市场还会出现进一步动荡。

“在未来几个月里，随着市场估算欧洲财政缩减计划和亚洲紧缩政策的成本，美国的监管改革成本以及迄今为止近乎“失业型复苏”(jobless recovery)模式的需求与风险，可以预期风险与价值的重新定价过程还将持续，”斯托尔茨福斯表示。

昨日风险交易复苏之际，许多国家的央行都举行了政策会议。

巴西和新西兰都采取了紧缩政策，而韩国央行(BoK)、英国央行(BoE)以及欧洲央行(ECB)都将利率维持在创纪录的低水平不变。

“我们预期，在一些市场部门形势持续紧张和异乎寻常的高不确定性背景之下，欧元区经济将保持温和增长，”欧洲央行行长让-克洛德?特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)表示

欧洲央行没有就其购买欧元区政府债券的计划提供更多细节。

最值得关注的经济数据包括中国5月份出口额同比增加48.5%，周三预测该经济指标将跃升50%的报道得到了证实。与此同时，澳大利亚的就业市场报告也优于预期，失业率从5.4%降至5.2%。

日本对第一季度经济年化增速进行了向上修正，最终增幅达到5%。

译者/管婧