【英语中国】中国带来好消息 难消全球经济隐忧

There's another welcome sign that the financial market tremors we saw in May didn't bring global growth to a screeching halt.

The Journal reports:

China posted a trade surplus for the second straight month in May as stronger-than-expected export growth sharply widened the surplus from the previous month, indicating the troubles in Europe haven't dented appetite for Chinese goods.

China's rising trade surplus and strong growth in exports may lead to renewed pressure on Beijing to allow appreciation of China's currency, the yuan, which would reduce the competitiveness of its exports.

'Events in Europe might still have an impact on Chinese growth, but it hasn't happened yet,' said Brian Jackson, a Royal Bank of Canada economist. 'In the meantime, strong export growth and a sharp pick-up in China's trade surplus will not go unnoticed in Washington.'

China's trade surplus last month reached $19.53 billion, well above the median $8.8 billion forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey, and up sharply from April's $1.68 billion surplus.

Exports rose 48.5% in May from a year earlier to $131.76 billion, higher than April's 30.5% growth, data issued by the General Administration of Customs showed Thursday. It was the sixth month in a row of growth and also was higher than expectations for a 30.2% gain.

Chinese markets didn't get too much of a bump overnight, but they did Wednesday, when the import numbers leaked a bit early. Keep an eye on those Chinese markets. They led the stateside selloff. And some investors are waiting to see them pick up again before adding to their riskier positions. Not everyone is sanguine about the prospects for an upturn in Chinese equities. In its highly readable 'Weekly Speculator' report, analysts from brokerage firm Oscar Gruss write that they believe popular emerging markets could be 'far more vulnerable to a deep and sustained correction that the U.S. and other developed markets.' They write:

China would be central to our concerns and although rumors of a sharp increase in Chinese exports buoyed markets on Wednesday morning it is the local Chinese economy that we would expect to be the locus of concerns. Here the twin inflationary perils of a runaway housing markets and demand for large wage increases threaten to derail the powerful growth that many now take for granted. Other closely linked economies also should be watched and we are particularly focused on Australia at the current time where a number of recent data releases have suggested a sharp deterioration in economic conditions.

又一个令人鼓舞的迹象显示，5月份出现的金融市场动荡，并没有令全球经济增长急刹车。

《华尔街日报》的报道说：

Associated Press“中国5月份连续第二个月实现贸易顺差，强于预期的出口增长使这个月的贸易顺差大大高于上月水平，这显示欧洲出现的问题并没有削弱海外市场对中国商品的兴趣。

中国贸易顺差的上升和出口的强劲增长有可能使要求中国让人民币升值的压力卷土重来，人民币升值将降低中国出口产品的竞争力。

加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)的经济学家杰克逊(Brian Jackson)说，欧洲债务问题也许依然对中国经济增长有影响，但这尚未显现出来。与此同时，中国出口强劲增长以及贸易顺差大幅提高也将会引起美国政府的关注。

中国上个月的贸易顺差达到195.3亿美元，远高于接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的12位经济学家88亿美元的预期中值，也较4月份贸易顺差16.8亿美元大幅上升。

中国海关总署周四发布的数据显示，5月份出口额较上年同期增长48.5%，至1,317.6亿美元，增速高于4月份的30.5%。这是中国出口连续第六个月增长，5月份增速也高于预期的30.2%。”

中国市场周四并没有出现太大的波动，但周三却波动很大，当时重要的出口数据提前泄露了出来。投资者需密切关注中国市场。这一市场曾引发美国市场出现了抛售。一些投资者正等待中国市场出现反弹，准备在这一势头出现后增加他们的高风险头寸。但也并非所有的人都对中国股市将止跌回升持乐观态度。经纪公司Oscar Gruss的分析师在该公司通俗易懂的Weekly Speculator报告中说，与美国和其他发达市场相比，那些热门新兴市场出现持续而大幅回调的几率要大得多。

他们写道：中国是他们担心的焦点，虽然有关中国出口大幅增长的传言周三上午对市场起了支撑作用，但他们担心的是中国本地的经济。房价大幅上涨以及大幅上调工资的要求这两个通货膨胀因素，有可能使许多人现在认为理所当然的中国经济高速增长戛然而止。他们说，其他与中国联系密切的经济体也应受到关注，我们目前尤其关注澳大利亚，该国最近公布的众多经济数据已暗示，经济状况正急剧恶化。