【英语中国】中国投资者倦对股市

In April I participated in a panel discussion at a conference on current trends in the Asian fund management industry. During the discussion the audience was asked whether the global financial crisis had affected both investor attitudes and fund manager relationships with their distributing partners. All but 10 per cent believed this was the case.

Most noticeably, investors had lost confidence in equities through the crisis resulting in strong flows to bond funds and flows generally out of mutual funds. This trend has continued at different times since, particularly when Asian and global equity markets have been stressed.

The most recent data published by Z-Ben Advisors in China confirm this pattern of investor behaviour, with strong flows into money market funds at the end of last year, and flows out of mutual funds as a whole during the first quarter of this year. The latest report shows the industry lost more than 9 per cent of its assets as the Chinese stock market lost more than 6 per cent in the first three months of this year.

Continued downward pressure on China's stock market, as investors cope with on-going government and central bank efforts to curb speculation and rein-in bank lending, is likely to depress the mainland's rapidly developing fund industry when margins are under pressure as shelf space among the handful of national distributors remains scarce.

Attempts to restart the market for funds that invest overseas have been met with indifference by China's investors. It seems the global crisis is likely to have stalled interest in overseas investing for some time, despite a belief among distributors and managers alike that index investing may provide the catalyst.

Curiously, whereas exchange traded funds open up alternative distribution for funds in other parts of the world, in China they are placed inside a mutual fund and distributed through the retail banks, reducing some of their advantages. Hopes that securities companies would develop as a key distribution channel for mutual funds in China have not been realised. It seems the domination of retail banks is set to continue, despite the proliferation of security accounts held by individuals, which was reported to have reached 168m by the end of last year.

In common with the rest of the Asian region, the Hong Kong economy has recorded a strong rebound in the first quarter of the year. This has been accompanied by strong flows back into equity-based mutual funds for Hong Kong, of $6.4bn (￡4.4bn,

4月份，我参加了一个会议的小组讨论，主题是亚洲基金管理行业当前的趋势。在讨论期间，有人问在场的听众：全球金融危机是否影响了投资者的态度，以及基金管理公司与其分销合作伙伴的关系。近10%的人给出了肯定的答案。

最值得注意的是，投资者在危机期间丧失了对股市的信心，导致大量资金流入债券基金，以及资金普遍流出共同基金。在那以后的不同时期，这种趋势一直持续，尤其是在亚洲及全球股市承压之时。

中国咨奔商务咨询(Z-Ben Advisors)发布的最新数据，证实了这种投资者行为：去年年底，资金大量流入货币市场基金；今年一季度期间，资金总体上流出共同基金。最新的报告显示，今年一季度，中国股市市值蒸发逾6%，基金管理行业资产规模缩水逾9%。

随着中国政府和央行不断出台措施抑制投机行为与银行放贷，中国股市持续面临下行压力，有可能会打压内地发展迅速的基金业。中国为数不多的全国性分销商“货架”上的空间仍很紧缺，也令基金业利润率面临压力。

重启投资海外的基金市场的尝试，在中国投资者那里遭到了冷遇。尽管分销商和基金经理认为。指数投资可能会加速推动该市场的复苏，但目前看来，在一段时期内全球危机可能会抑制投资者对于海外投资的兴趣。

奇怪的是，尽管在世界其它地区，交易所交易基金(ETF)开启了另一条基金销售渠道，但在中国，它们却被放在共同基金中、通过零售银行进行分销，这一定程度上削弱了它们的优势。在中国，券商将发展成为共同基金关键分销渠道的期望，尚未成为现实。目前来看，零售银行的主导地位仍将继续，尽管个人持有的证券账户激增——据报道，截至去年年底，账户数已达到1.68亿个。

与亚洲其它地区一样，香港经济今年一季度也出现了强劲复苏。与此同时，资金大量流入香港股票型共同基金——一季度的数字为64亿美元。其中，以中国为投资重点的基金就占据了13亿美元。

试图利用资本投资者入境计划(Capital Investment Entrant Scheme)申请香港居民身份的外国侨民，可以将计划要求的650万港元中的部分资金，投资于具备资格的共同基金。随着该计划日渐成熟，预计将吸引持续的资金流入。该计划包括已移民海外的中国侨民，因此，许多财富管理集团目前已开始瞄准此类人群。

亚洲地区越来越多的分销商已开始关注客户细分。金融危机已促使主要基金分销商与财富管理集团重新思考它们满足客户需求的方式——将更强调理解不同投资者需要不同的策略。

雷曼(Lehman)迷你债券的崩盘，突显出在向客户推荐结构复杂的产品与策略时，有必要提供最佳建议。当雷曼倒闭时，迷你债券让香港、台湾和新加坡的投资者蒙受了损失。提供这些迷你债券的财富管理集团受到了指责，因为它们未告诉客户此类产品所涉及的信用风险。

与以往对所有客户都采取同一种策略不同，财富管理集团如今开始推出不同的服务，为不同客户提供不同层次的建议。迄今为止，亚太地区对金融危机的监管回应仍相当温和，或许是因为当地监管机构正等着看欧美监管部门作何反应。预计在任何拟议的变革中，提供咨询服务和投资者保护都将占据重要地位，从而可能成为亚洲地区加大客户细分的又一驱动因素。

本文作者是RCM Asia Pacific行政总裁

译者/何黎