【英语中国】中国楼市调控悄然转向

Signs are growing that China's government is discreetly adjusting its medium-term strategy of tackling the country's red-hot property sector. In recent weeks, there's been a notable lower volume on calls for the introduction of some sort of property tax, a potentially powerful fiscal tool widely considered one of the last resorts for the government to rein in runaway housing prices.

Accompanying this have been rather disconcerting remarks by Premier Wen Jiabao lately that China should avoid exiting its broad-based economic stimulus too soon and too firmly.

Then on Tuesday, the People's Bank of China pledged in its 2009 annual report to promote the 'healthy development' of the domestic real estate market while urging banks to 'continue refining' their mortgage policies to curb speculative home purchases. In other words, the government is unlikely to unveil further and even harsher property tightening measures following those announced in mid-April, and will concentrate more on implementation on a local and micro level.

Also missing for now in official rhetoric are alarmist phrases such as 'overly rapid rises in property prices' that kept appearing in earlier government statements and eventually led to the tightening policies in mid-April.

Instead, the preferred tactic now appears to be a likely major boost in the supply of cheap public housing to meet the needs of lower-income people, including migrant workers, amid creeping urbanization across China.

One clear indication of this shift in policy thinking emerged last week when the Shanghai government failed to announce a much-talked-about property-tax pilot project. Instead, as the local version of the property curbs, the city released a draft plan on significantly expanding the coverage of subsidized housing.

Shanghai is one of the cities previously thought to be chosen for an experiment with a certain form of property tax. For a city where speculation on high-end real estate is the most rampant in China, the official silence on the property tax and endorsement of more subsidized housing is telling.

The government's apparently stronger effort in boosting public housing is certainly laudable while it also has legitimate reasons for not using a fiscal tool in a still-capricious-global economic climate.

That said, populists would still argue that the Chinese government needs a better explanation for being so late in elevating public housing to a key role in the dual purpose of cooling the market and reining in inflation. Under the excuse of treating real estate as an economic engine, there's deep-rooted resistance within the bureaucracy to give up guaranteed windfalls from land sales and property-transaction taxes.

Once again, conflict of interest, not technicalities such as hot money and cheap financing, is the long-term hurdle for what the PBOC describes as 'the healthy development' of China's property market.

不断有迹象显示，中国政府正在谨慎调整应对房地产行业过热的中期策略。最近几个星期，推出某种形式物业税的呼声明显调低了声调。这种财政政策工具的影响可能非常巨大，被普遍视为政府遏止房价失控的终极手段之一。

与此同时，国务院总理温家宝最近发表相当让人困惑的言论说，中国应该过避免过早、过严地退出不仅针对房地产行业的整套经济刺激政策。

Bloomberg News上海的一处工地然后在本周二，中国人民银行在2009年年度报告中承诺将促进国内房地产市场“健康发展”，同时敦促银行继续微调其房贷政策，遏制投机性购房。也就是说，在4月中旬推出的政策过后，政府不太可能推出新的、甚至是更严厉的楼市紧缩措施，而是更加关注于地方和微观层面的实施。

另外，目前官方也没有发表“房价过快上涨”一类的措辞。在早前的政府声明中，这样的措辞层出不穷，最终体现为4月中旬的紧缩政策。

相反，政府更加青睐的战术，似乎是在全国城镇化缓慢进行之际，（可能）大力增加便宜公共住房的供应，以满足农民工等低收入人群的需要。

上周的一个迹象就很明显地反映了这种政策思路的转变。当时，上海市政府没有推出热论中的房产税试点项目。相反，作为当地版本的调控措施，上海市政府公布了一份大幅度扩大补贴住房覆盖面的草案。

先前，人们以为上海将被选为某种形式的房产税的试点城市之一。上海高端房地产市场的炒作在中国最为疯狂，在这样一个城市，官方闭口不谈房产税，而是支持扩大补贴住房的覆盖面，是很能说明问题的。

政府看来是在加大努力提高公共住房的供应，这无疑是值得称赞的。同时，在全球经济气候仍旧阴晴不定的情况下，不动用财政政策工具也有充分的理由。

但民粹派还是会说，中国政府需要解释，为什么这么晚才把公共住房提升到一个对于冷却房地产市场同时遏制通货膨胀至关重要的地位。以房地产是经济增长引擎为借口，官僚系统内部极不情愿放弃依靠出卖土地、征收房产交易税获得的稳定利益。

这再次说明，利益冲突，而不是热钱、廉价资金之类的术语，才是中国房地产市场“健康发展”的长远阻碍。