【英语中国】劳工维权加快中国经济良性转型

China's workers are successfully demanding higher wages and better working conditions, a shift that promises to accelerate the nation's transition to an economy that is more driven by the spending power of its people.

On Monday, Honda Motor Co. was jolted by a strike at a Chinese company that supplies it with exhaust pipes. Less than a week earlier, the Japanese auto maker settled a strike at another supplier-which paralyzed Honda's manufacturing operation in China for 10 days-by granting workers a 24% increase in pay and benefits.

The Honda strikes are part of a series of labor disputes involving major global companies in recent weeks that have dramatized an important, nascent transformation in China's economy toward one more driven by domestic consumption.

The shift is also complicating business for companies that have come to rely on China's low-cost labor to keep a steady flow of inexpensive goods.

'This is a watershed. You can no longer rely on China's cheap labor,' said Terry Gou, the founder and chairman of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer that supplies iPads and iPhones for Apple Inc. and a range of gadgets for other companies, including Hewlett-Packard Co. and Nintendo Co.

Hon Hai, one of the largest employers and exporters in China, said this week it will double wages for some of its roughly 800,000 workers in the country, following earlier announcements of increases of 30% for some workers.

Behind the wage increases are a rapid rebound in the country's economy over the past year, and longer-running demographic shifts that have been slowly sapping the supply of workers.

It is a process the Chinese government has been trying to hurry along by boosting social programs and making it harder for companies to fire workers.

As Chinese workers start to spend more, the nation's economy could become less prone to boom-and-bust cycles and provide greater support for growth in other countries, economists say.

With the U.S., Europe and Japan likely facing years of weak growth, many hopes are pinned on sustainable, domestically driven growth in big emerging economies such as China.

'We are seeing a rapid rise of wages in almost every sector. This is a very positive development,' said Bai Chong'en, chair of the economics department at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Higher wages could reduce income inequality and drive more consumption, he said, if the gains continue-which looks increasingly likely. 'It's more of a long-term shift,' reflecting the maturing of the Chinese economy and changes in the structure of the population, Mr. Bai said.

Such salary increases are becoming increasingly common in the country's vast manufacturing sector as companies face rising pressure to attract staff and improve conditions for employees.

On Sunday in Shenzhen, the southern manufacturing hub where Hon Hai has its biggest plant, Taiwan's Merry Electronics Co. was hit by a work stoppage that lasted about two hours. A spokesman for the company, which makes electronics components, said the incident was unrelated to an already announced plan for a wage increase in July that would average 10%.

TPV Technology Ltd., the world's largest maker of computer displays, has said it will raise the wages it pays in China by another 15% to 20% this year, after a 15% increase in January.

While companies such as Hon Hai make a huge share of the consumer products bought in the rest of the world, some economists say the wage increases won't necessarily force significant price increases-in part because the companies still have ways to improve productivity and lower costs.

Much of the public attention in China in recent weeks has been on foreign companies-because they are easy targets for labor activists and media here, and because they account for a huge share of China's manufacturing exports.

But the wage changes are affecting domestic companies as well. Local governments across the country in recent weeks have announced increases in minimum wages ranging from 5% to 27% that affect all companies.

'I believe all of China's manufacturing and service sectors will need to increase workers' wages,' Hon Hai's Mr. Gou said Tuesday at his company's annual shareholder meeting. He said China's government wants to make sure workers can benefit more from economic growth. 'We believe the wage increase is healthy.'

The changes could have far-reaching implications. The share of national income going to Chinese households has been declining for a decade, meaning that the benefits of China's growth have gone mainly to corporations and the government.

Turning that trend around is crucial to achieving what China's leaders and the nation's trading partners say they desire: a Chinese economy driven not by government investment and exports but by prosperity of its own consumers.

U.S. officials, who have been pushing for China to raise household incomes and shift to a more domestic growth model, have welcomed the beginnings of such a shift. 'It looks as if there has been a durable shift towards domestic consumption in China,' Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in Beijing last month, pointing to a shrinking trade surplus and the rapid growth in domestic demand.

Mr. Geithner and other U.S. officials have been urging the Chinese government to take measures-including but not limited to relaxing its strict control over the exchange rate of its currency-that would increase household incomes and support consumer spending.

The booming Chinese economy-which expanded 11.9% from a year earlier in the first quarter-now seems to be bumping up against labor constraints. A government survey showed a 35% increase in vacancies posted by employers in the first quarter of 2010, but only an 8% increase in the number of applicants for those vacancies.

The result is probably the tightest labor market in recent years, one that is making employers work harder to attract and retain workers.

Much of the change has come from shifts in the nation's population, as fewer young people enter the work force as a result of the nation's one-child policy. Demographers expect the size of the working-age population to peak sometime in the next five years or so, and then gradually decline.

A labor market where a surplus of rural migrant workers once weighed down wages is now more closely balanced, meaning that strong economic growth can translate more quickly into higher salaries. Premier Wen Jiabao signaled the government's recognition of the new environment in his annual work report to the nation in March, when he warned that there is 'a structural shortage of labor.'

Higher wages have made operating in China likely to become more complex for foreign companies, especially if workers are increasingly emboldened to test the limits. Yet companies have room to lift wages without causing drastic price increases or sharply lower profits, because Chinese factories are increasingly efficient. China's labor productivity-the amount each worker can produce-has risen by more than 9% a year over the past five years, according to estimates by the Conference Board.

In part, that reflects companies investing more in factory equipment and automation that allows each worker to do more-a strategy that Hon Hai says it will likely pursue in coming years.

The increasing prevalence of higher-wage workers and more-automated factories may make low-end products such as plastic toys less competitive in China, but it is a good formula for making electronics and other higher-end manufactured goods.

'Because of its rising wage levels, China will have to move more into the higher value-added segments of the supply chain. And that will open a lot more opportunities, both in exports and domestically,' said Bart van Ark, chief economist for the Conference Board in New York. 'We'll see China competing in a lot more products and even services than we see them competing now.'

中国工人不断要求加薪和改善工作条件，并且正在取得成功，这种变化有望加快整个国家经济的转型，使它的增长更多地由民众的购买力来驱动。

周一，本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)在中国的一家排气管供应商发生罢工。不到一个星期以前，这家日本汽车生产商向另一家供应商的工人承诺将工资和福利增加24%，解决了一场造成它在中国停产10日的罢工。

Associated Press佛山丰富汽配有限公司的工人罢工要求加薪本田遭遇的这几起罢工事件，是近几个星期涉及重要跨国公司的系列劳工争端的一部分。这些争端让人们注意到，中国经济正在经历一场刚刚起步的重要转变，转变为一个更加依靠国内消费来驱动的经济体。

这种转变也让一些公司的业务面临更加复杂的处境。它们已经对中国的廉价劳动力产生依赖，以此源源不断地输出廉价商品。

鸿海精密工业股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.)创始人、董事长郭台铭(Terry Gou)说，这是一个分水岭，你不能继续依赖于中国的廉价劳动力了。鸿海是一家位于台湾的电子产品生产商，为苹果公司(Apple Inc.)供应iPad和iPhone，并为惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)和任天堂(Nintendo Co.)等其他公司生产一系列电子产品。

鸿海是中国大陆最大的雇主和出口商之一，雇有员工约80万人。继早前宣布为部分员工加薪30%后，该公司本周又说，它将把部分员工的薪资提高一倍。

在加薪背后，是中国经济在过去一年快速反弹，以及更长时期内的人口变化导致劳动力供应缓慢减少。

中国政府一直在通过增强社会福利事业、提高企业解雇工人的门槛，努力加快这一进程。

经济学界认为，随着中国工人开始增加支出，整个国家的经济有望减少周期性波动，并为其他国家的增长提供更大力度的支持。

在美国、欧洲和日本很有可能面临多年疲弱增长的情况下，很多人把希望寄托于中国等大型新兴经济体可持续、内需拉动型的经济增长。

清华大学经济管理学院经济系主任白重恩说，几乎各行各业的薪资都在快速增长，这是一个非常积极的变化。

他说，薪资增长如果继续下去（显得越来越有可能），则有可能缩小收入差距，并带动消费增加。白重恩说，这更多地是一种长期转变，反映中国经济走向成熟，人口结构发生变化。

在中国庞大的制造业领域，随着企业在吸引员工、改善员工工作条件方面面临着越来越多的压力，加薪正变得越来越普遍。

周日，在鸿海最大工厂所在地、南方制造业中心深圳，台湾美律实业(Merry Electronics Co.)发生持续约两小时的停工。这家电子零部件生产商的发言人说，罢工事件与公司已经宣布的7月份平均加薪10%的计划无关。

世界最大电脑显示器生产商冠捷科技有限公司(TPV Technology Ltd.)曾说，在1月份为大陆员工加薪15%过后，它将在今年再次加薪15%到20%。

虽然鸿海等公司生产的产品在其他国家所购买的消费类产品中占据了相当大的一部分，但一些经济学家说，加薪并不一定会带来明显的物价上涨。部分原因在于，企业仍然有办法提高生产率、降低成本。

近几个星期，中国国内舆论的很大一部分注意力都集中在外资企业身上，因为在劳工维权人士和媒体的攻击面前，它们几无还手之力，也因为它们在中国的制造业出口中占据了很大的比重。

不过，加薪也在影响中国本土企业。近几周来，全国各地方政府陆续宣布将各企业的最低工资上调5%至27%。

郭台铭周二在公司年度股东大会上说，我认为中国所有的制造和服务业都需要增加工人工资。他说，中国政府希望确保工人能够从经济增长中更多地获益，我们认为加薪是积极的。

Reuters图为苏州易德龙电器有限公司的工人加薪可能会造成深远的影响。10年来，家庭收入在全国收入中所占的份额一直在下滑，意味着中国经济增长所带来的好处主要流向了企业和政府。

扭转这种趋势对实现中国领导人和中国的贸易伙伴的期望至关重要：一个不是由政府投资和出口所推动、而是由国内消费者的富足所推动的经济。

美国官员一直在敦促中国提高家庭收入，向更多地以国内增长为主的模式转变。他们对这样一种转变的开始表示欢迎。美国财长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)上个月在北京说，鉴于中国贸易顺差收窄、内需快速增长，看起来中国似乎出现了朝着国内消费的持续转变。

盖特纳等美国官员一直在敦促中国政府采取措施增加家庭收入、鼓励消费者支出，其中包括但不限于放宽对人民币汇率的严格控制。

今年一季度，中国经济同比增长11.9%，这样的飞速发展目前看来受到了用工短缺的制约。政府的一项调查显示，2010年一季度，用工单位公布的空缺职位增加了35%，而应聘者只增加了8%。

结果可能是造成了近年来最紧张的劳动力市场，令用工单位更努力地吸引和留住工人。

劳动力市场形势的变化源于中国人口的改变，因为在中国计划生育政策下加入就业大军的年轻人减少了。人口统计学家预计，适龄人口数量将在未来五年左右的某个时间达到顶峰，然后逐渐下滑。

中国的劳动力市场曾因农村务工人员的过剩而打压了工资，如今则更加平衡了，意味着强劲的经济增长可以更快地转换成更高的工资。中国国务院总理温家宝在3月份全国人大上做政府工作报告时表示，政府认识到了新的形势。他在会上提醒说，存在劳动力结构性短缺。

对外资企业来说，更高的工资可能会使在华的运营变得更为复杂，特别是如果工人越来越大胆地考验它们的底线的话。不过，由于中国企业的效率越来越高，企业仍有余地在不造成价格大幅上涨或利润大幅下滑的情况下加薪。据世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的估计，过去五年来，中国的劳动生产率每年增长9%以上。劳动生产率是每个工人在单位时间内生产某种产品的数量。

从某种程度上讲，这反映出企业更多地投资于工厂设备和自动化，使每个工人可以完成更多的工作──鸿海说，公司未来很可能会执行这种战略。

高薪工人和高度自动化工厂的日益普及可能会令塑料玩具等低端产品在中国的竞争力下降，不过却是生产电子产品和其他更高端制成品的良方。

世界大型企业联合会驻纽约首席经济学家范阿克(Bart van Ark)说，由于工资水平不断上升，中国将不得不更多地转向供应链中附加值更高的环节，这将给出口和国内都带来更多的机会。他说，我们将看到中国在更多的产品领域参与竞争，甚至是在服务业。