【英语中国】Lex专栏：“中国制造”会涨价吗？

Wage pressures are building in China – even outside export-led zones, and in non-exporting industries. Yet any idea that the nation is about to surrender its status as the workshop of the world would be wide of the mark.

Even for labour-intensive industries, labour costs can be a small fraction of the whole. At Foxconn International, which has in effect doubled wages for hundreds of thousands of assembly-line workers, staff costs (including pensions) are about 7 per cent of the cost of inventories. Moreover, many of the biggest producers have ample room to absorb pay rises. Between 1994 and 2008, on Nomura estimates, industrial enterprises showed 21 per cent annual labour productivity growth, while annual wage growth was just over 13 per cent. In other words, unit labour costs fell. Many humble contractors are now much more profitable than their developed-market customers. For example, the five-year average net profit margin at Zhejiang-based clothier Shenzhou International, a big supplier to Uniqlo and Nike, is 15 per cent – double that of Japan's Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent) and two-thirds higher than the US sports brand.

Further, higher wage settlements may not necessarily lead to lower margins. Early movers such as Foxconn, where full increases are effective from October 1, may find that at least some of those costs can be passed on to vendors anxious to build inventories ahead of the peak fourth quarter. Even if they are not, there is always the option of shifting production further inland, where wage pressure is not as great, or even subcontracting to Bangladesh. For the biggest, then, the pressure looks containable, especially if it spurs further consolidation around larger production units. Rising wages, meanwhile, achieve real effective currency appreciation, which could serve to spur domestic consumption. The “China price” looks safe for now.

中国的薪资压力正在积聚，即便在出口导向型的经济特区以外、在非出口产业也是如此。然而，有关中国即将告别“世界工厂”地位的任何说法，都将是不靠谱的。

即使对劳动密集型产业来说，劳动力成本也可能只是总成本的一个零头。富士康国际(Foxconn International)事实上已经为数十万装配线工人加了一倍工资，但该公司的员工成本（包括养老金）仍只有库存成本的7%左右。此外，许多最大型的生产商有足够的空间吸收加薪影响。据野村证券(Nomura)估计，1994年至2008年期间，中国工业企业实现了21%的年度劳动生产率增长，而年度薪资涨幅仅略高于13%。换句话说，单位劳动力成本下降了。如今，许多不起眼的中国承包商与它们在发达市场的客户相比，利润要丰厚得多。例如，总部位于浙江的服装企业申洲国际(Shenzhou International)是优衣库(Uniqlo)和耐克( Nike)的一大供应商，其五年平均净利润率达到15%，比日本的迅销（Fast Retailing，优衣库的母公司）高出一倍，比美国体育品牌耐克高出三分之二。

再进一步说，更高的薪资未必导致利润率滑坡。像富士康这样抢占先机的企业（富士康的加薪计划将在10月1日开始执行）可能会发现，至少有一部分额外成本可转移给商家，这些商家急于在第四季度销售高峰前充实库存。即便企业不能转嫁成本，它们也总是可以选择把生产进一步迁往中国内陆（那里的薪资压力没有这么大），或者甚至把业务转包给孟加拉国。因此，对最大的企业来说，薪资压力似乎是能够承受的，尤其是如果这种压力能推动较大生产单位进一步整合的话。与此同时，薪资上涨将实现实际有效的货币升值，有望刺激国内消费。就目前而言，“中国价格”看上去是保险的。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。

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