【英语中国】降温效果超预期 中国楼市被冷冻

Government policy changes have thrown China's booming property market into a period of paralysis that some industry executives say will last for months, weighing on global growth prospects already battered by Europe's turmoil.

A rebound in China's property market has been central to the nation's rapid recovery from the financial crisis, but surging housing prices had led to increasingly open discontent from middle-class families in major cities. After months of indecision, Beijing in mid-April announced a package of policies intended to blow the froth out of the market by restricting speculative purchases.

Officials may have gotten more than they bargained for. Though still too recent for their effect to show up in official economic statistics, early indications are that the new measures have sharply cooled the property market. Arriving around the same time as the debt crisis in Greece, China's new restrictions caused many investors and businesses to question the strength of the global recovery. Domestic steel prices are down 7.4% since the April measures, and as of Thursday China's main stock market index is down 19.4%.

The housing market in many -- though not all -- Chinese cities seems to have nearly ground to a halt. On average, the number of residential property transactions in the four weeks after the curbs were unveiled is down 40% compared with the four weeks before the measures, according to figures covering 24 major cities from real-estate consultancy Soufun.com.

China's economic growth was already widely expected to slow in coming months, as the impact of last year's stimulus policies fade. Some forecasters, seeing weaker prospects in a key industry, are now further marking down their numbers for this year. China International Capital Corp. now expects the economy to expand 9.5% in 2010 as a whole, rather than the 10.5% it previously forecast.
But the key variable for how things unfold is difficult to forecast: What Beijing will do next. Analysts are divided about whether the government is more likely to take additional measures to push down prices, or start to reverse itself to restore market confidence.

Investors are focused on whether Beijing will impose new taxes on residential property, a move that is being discussed by big cities including Shanghai and Chongqing. On Monday, China's State Council signaled support for such changes, approving a set of economic-reform priorities including 'gradually advancing reform of real-estate taxation.' Even though no specific plans have been announced, the issue is weighing on markets since higher taxes would push down the value of properties.

'The government has been very ambiguous about the property market,' said Li-Gang Liu, China economist for Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. Officials are afraid both of letting a bubble get out of hand, and of cracking down too hard and endangering growth, as happened in early 2008, he said.

The prospect that real-estate market rules may be rewritten has created uncertainties for both buyers and sellers, who are trying to figure out what the government's new attitude means for the market. The April rules raised down-payment requirements and restricted purchases of multiple homes, and were supplemented by other measures that differ from city to city. Yet the subsequent slowdown seems to be greater than can be explained by the number of people directly affected by the changed rules.

'What's really dampened the market is the uncertainty. That overhang is what's driving everyone to wait,' said Kevin Yung, executive vice president of IFM Investments Ltd., which runs the Century 21 real-estate agency franchise in China. 'We think this could last another three to six months,' he said, a rough forecast shared by other industry executives.

Mr. Yung reports that his business is seeing plenty of traffic: People are still looking at apartments and asking about prices. But many are holding off final decisions, and will likely need prices to come down before they plunge into homeownership. 'We think prices are going to come down, probably by about 20%, but it will happen over time because this adjustment is driven more by policy than demand,' he said.

Quincy Zhao, who works at a consulting firm in Shanghai, is waiting to see if the government's measures really will make a dent in the city's steep prices. Ms. Zhao, 26, rents an apartment with three friends, but has her eye on a place of her own in the Pudong district that would at current prices cost her three million yuan, or about $440,000.

'I have to be super cautious given that the situation is not so clear at the moment. I am afraid that getting into the market now will lead to a loss if the property price really goes down,' Ms. Zhao said. 'Personally, I do hope that these policies will work.'

政府政策的变化已让中国不断膨胀的房地产市场进入一个停顿期，按一些业界高管的说法，这个停顿期会持续几个月的时间。这在欧洲乱局的基础上进一步打压了全球经济的增长前景。

楼市的反弹曾对中国快速摆脱金融危机起到关键作用，但飙升的房价引起大城市中产家庭越来越多的公开不满。经过数月的犹疑之后，中国政府在4月中旬宣布了一揽子旨在限制投机性购房、挤掉楼市泡沫的政策。

政策效果或许已经超出官员的预料。虽然尚未反映在官方经济统计数据中，但早期迹象显示，新政策已经导致楼市急剧降温。中国这套新政策的出台与希腊债务危机的发生差不多是同时的，让很多投资者和企业对全球经济复苏的力度产生了疑问。自4月份新政推出以来，国内钢铁价格已经下跌7.4%，截至周四，中国的基准股指下跌了19.4%。

虽然不是全部，但中国有很多城市的房地产市场似乎已经接近于停顿状态。房地产咨询机构搜房网(Soufun.com)覆盖24个大城市的数据显示，限制措施出台后四周的住房成交量较之前四周平均下降了40%。

楼市新政出台前，人们已经普遍预期，随着去年刺激政策的效果不断减弱，未来数月中国经济将会出现放缓。而现在，一些预测人士考虑到房地产这个重要行业前景变弱，又进一步下调了他们对今年增长率的预测数字。中国国际金融有限公司现在预计整个2010年的经济增速为9.5%，而不是此前预测的10.5%。

但作为未来形势的关键变量，北京方面接下来采取什么措施是很难预测的。中国政府是更有可能采取进一步的措施打压房价，还是更有可能着手回调政策以恢复市场信心，分析界的意见出现了分歧。

投资者关注的焦点是北京方面是否将实施新的住宅房地产税。上海和重庆等大城市正在就此进行讨论。周一，中国国务院对此表示支持，批准了一系列经济改革的首要任务，其中包括逐步推进房产税改革。尽管未宣布具体计划，但由于税赋的增加将会压低房产的价值，这一问题还是对市场造成了巨大的压力。

澳新银行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)中国经济学家刘利刚说，政府在对待房地产市场的态度上一直是模棱两可。官员们既担心泡沫失控，又担心打压过猛会危及经济增长，就像2008年初的情况那样。

房地产市场规定或将被改写的前景带来了种种的不确定性，买房者和卖房者都试图弄清楚政府的新态度对市场意味着什么。4月的新规提高了首付要求并限制购买多套房产，各城市也各自推出了不同的措施。然而，房地产市场随之而来的放缓似乎来势汹汹，冲击的范围超出了直接受政策影响的人群范围。

21世纪不动产执行副总裁容敬思(Kevin Yung)说，真正影响市场的因素是不确定性。这种悬而未决的问题导致每个人都在等待。我们认为这种情况可能再持续三到六个月。其它同行高管对此也有同感。

容敬思称他公司的业务量仍很大：人们仍在找房、问价。但许多人都不急着做最后的决定，很可能需要房价下降之后才会买房。他说，我们认为房价将下降，降幅可能在20%左右，但需要一段时间，因为这一调整更多的是受政策推动，而不是需求。

上海某咨询公司的Quincy Zhao正在观望政府的措施能否真的把上海高企的房价降下来。今年26岁的她与三个朋友合租了一套房子，但看上了浦东新区的一套房子。这套房子按照当前的价格需要人民币300万元（约合440,000美元）。

Quincy Zhao说，鉴于目前的情况并不明朗，我必须特别谨慎。我担心如果现在出手，一旦房价真降了，我就亏了。就我个人而言，我真的希望这些政策能够奏效。