【英语中国】更多中国消费者预计房价将下跌

New evidence about how China's housing market is digesting the government's restrictive policies is continuing to roll in. Since mid-April, property transactions in major cities have dried up as buyers and sellers try to figure out where the market is headed, and what the next steps in government policy will be.

The monthly China Consumer Sentiment Survey, conducted by Hyperlink Research of Shanghai, suggests that the government's tougher stance is starting to dampen what were once near-universal expectations that Chinese housing prices had nowhere to go but up. Puncturing the bubble mentality has been a key goal for Chinese policymakers, who have repeatedly highlighted the importance of managing expectations in preventing the surge in prices from getting out of hand.

In May, 18% of the survey's respondents expected housing prices to be 'a little lower' or 'much lower' in the next six months, compared to just 6% in April's survey. Similarly, the share of respondents expecting housing prices to be 'a little higher' or 'much higher' fell to 37% from 64%. And general uncertainty also increased: Those answering 'don't know' increased to 12% from 8%.

Expectations of lower prices could encourage sellers to stay out of the market until housing becomes cheaper. But it's not yet clear whether housing prices have started to move down in a significant way. The main effect of the government's new policies and the attendant uncertainty has been a dramatic fall in property transactions, as both buyers and sellers hold off from doing deals. According to the latest report from real-estate consultancy Soufun, transaction volumes of residential property in major cities were down 44% in May compared with the previous month.

With so few housing transactions going through, it's hard to get a read on where prices are heading. What would appear as a drop in average prices could simply be the result of fewer high-priced apartments being sold, and not necessarily the sellers of those apartments accepting lower prices. More clarity could come later this week with the official monthly economic data for May, which will give nationwide estimates of housing prices, sales and construction activity.

对于中国楼市正在如何消化政府出台的限制性政策，有新的证据在不断出现。自4月中旬以来，由于买卖双方都在试图弄清楚楼市的走势和政府下一步的政策，主要城市的房屋成交量随之枯竭。

位于上海的联恒市场研究有限公司(Hyperlink Research)进行的中国消费者情绪月度调查显示，政府更强硬的立场开始浇灭曾经普遍存在的、中国房价只涨不跌的预期。戳破泡沫心理是中国决策人士的一个主要目标。中国决策人士一再强调控制楼市预期在防止房价失控方面的重要性。

5月份，有18%的受访者预计未来六个月房价会“小降”或“大降”；相比之下，4月份的调查中只有6%的受访者持类似看法。类似的，预计房价“小涨”或“大涨”的受访者比例从64%降至37%。普遍的不确定也增加了：回答“不知道”的人的比例从8%增加到了12%。

对房价下滑的预期可能会鼓励卖房者在房价进一步下滑之前持观望态度。不过，尚不清楚房价是否已经开始大幅走低。目前为止，政府的新政和买卖双方不确定的主要结果是导致房屋交易量大幅下滑，因为买卖双方都停止了交易。据房地产咨询公司搜房网的最新报告，5月份主要城市的住房成交量较上月下滑44%。

在房屋成交量很小的情况下，要想预测房价走势是很困难的。表面上的房屋均价下降或许只是高档住房的成交量下滑所致，而并不一定是卖家接受了更低的价格。本周晚些时候，5月份的官方月度经济数据将会出炉，数据会对全国范围的房价、销售和建设情况给出一个估计，届时情况会变得更为明了。