【英语中国】中国农行上市预期筹资额缩水三分之一

Agricultural Bank of China's initial public offering is likely to raise much less than the $30bn record-setting total it had hoped to get when it sells shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai as early as next month.

Analysts and bankers close to the deal said that judging by investor appetite, the current state of the market, and details in the IPO prospectus released late on Friday, Agricultural Bank was more likely to raise a little over $20bn. At that level the IPO would not be the world's largest. It had been expected to eclipse the current IPO record set by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which raised $22bn in 2006.

China's stock market has dropped about 20 per cent since mid-April on general worries about the country's economy and concern over a huge flood of bank fundraisings hitting the market at the same time. Chinese lenders been rushing to shore up their balance sheets following an unprecedented lending spree last year.

Bank of Communications, China's fifth largest bank and nearly one-fifth owned by HSBC of the UK, announced a Rmb33.07bn ($4.8bn) rights issue in Hong Kong and Shanghai yesterday that was 21 per cent smaller than the amount it had earlier said it planned to raise.

HSBC said it would take up its full allotment of the Hong Kong portion of the rights issue, which is priced at a 37 per cent discount to the bank's closing price on Friday.

Agricultural Bank will sell up to 56.3bn new shares, or nearly 17 per cent of its enlarged capital base, in Shanghai and Hong Kong, if over-allotment options are exercised in both markets. The lender has in recent weeks on its roadshow been offering potential investors an asking price roughly benchmarked to the 1.94 times price-to-book ratio ICBC sold its shares for in its IPO.

But mainland Chinese fund managers have been reluctant to offer more than a 1.2 times ratio, and bankers said the eventual IPO price might be about a 1.3-1.5 times ratio.

“The gap between the bank's expectations and the market perception is huge and in the current market environment the bank will have to lower its sights somewhat,” said one person familiar with the IPO.

Agricultural Bank is the last of China's large state-controlled banks to seek a public listing and is regarded as the weakest of the country's lenders. Its net profits were Rmb65bn last year on Rmb8,880bn in total assets, while ICBC, the world's largest lender by market value, made close to Rmb129bn on Rmb11,785bn in total assets.

Following a $19bn bail-out from China's sovereign wealth fund at the end of 2008, Agricultural Bank's non-performing loan ratio fell from almost 24 per cent at the end of 2007 to 2.9 per cent at the end of last year.

China's securities regulator said it would review Agricultural Bank's IPO plan on Wed-nesday. A Hong Kong hearing is expected the following day.

The IPO is almost certain to go ahead and will be supported by large state-owned Chinese enterprises, such as PetroChina and China Life Insurance.

中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)最早可在下月完成在香港和上海的首次公开发行(IPO)，但筹资金额很可能远低于该行曾希望达到的创纪录的300亿美元。

了解该上市交易的分析师和银行家们表示，从投资者胃口、目前市场状况，以及上周五晚些时候发布的农行招股说明书细节来看，该行的筹资额更有可能略高于200亿美元。这意味着此次上市将不会是全球规模最大的IPO。此前人们曾预期，农行此次上市将打破中国工商银行(ICBC) 2006年上市筹资220亿美元的纪录。

自4月中旬以来，中国股市已下跌大约20%，原因是人们对中国经济整体状况普遍感到忧虑，并担心各大银行同时进入市场，将掀起一股筹资热潮。中国各银行在去年掀起空前的放贷狂潮后，正忙于充实各自的资产负债表。

交通银行(Bank of Communications)昨日宣布在香港和上海进行330.7亿元人民币（合48亿美元）的配股发行，筹资额比该行原先公布的计划少了21%。交行是中国第五大银行，英国汇丰(HSBC)拥有该行近五分之一股份。

汇丰表示，将全额认购香港部分的配股，新股定价相对于交行上周五的收盘价有37%的折让。

农行将在上海和香港发售至多563亿新股，占其扩大后股本的近17%——如果超额配售选择权在两个市场都得到行使的话。在近几周的路演中，该行向潜在投资者提出的报价，大致上以工行发股上市时1.94的市净率为基准。

但中国内地的基金经理不愿提供高于1.2的市净率，银行家们表示，最终的上市价可能在1.3至1.5倍市净率这一区间。

“该行期望与市场观感之间差距很大，在目前的市场环境下，该行将不得不稍稍放低眼光，”一名知情人士表示。

农行是中国最后一家寻求上市的国家控股银行，也被视为中国各大银行中最薄弱的一个。其去年净利润为650亿元人民币，而总资产为8.8万亿元人民币，相比之下，按市值计算为全球最大银行的工行去年盈利接近1290亿元人民币，总资产为11.785万亿元人民币。

在2008年底得到中国主权财富基金的190亿美元纾困后，农行的不良贷款率已从2007年底的近24%，降至去年底的2.9%。

中国证券监管机构表示，将在周三审议农行的上市计划。预期香港将于次日举行上市聆讯。

此次上市几乎肯定将如期推进，并将得到中国大型国企的支持，如中国石油(PetroChina)和中国人寿(China Life)。

译者/和风