【英语中国】Lex专栏：中国制造业加薪大势所趋

China's migrant workers, known as “factories without smoke”, are at last showing some fire. Japan's Honda appears to have put an end to a two-week strike at its Guangdong parts plant by raising basic pay by almost a quarter. Then there is Foxconn of Taiwan, the world's largest contract electronics manufacturer, where an apparent suicide cult at its Shenzhen compound has led management to offer a 30 per cent rise in wages. Since overtime is typically calculated as a percentage of basic pay, effective pay will have been lifted higher still.

Manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta, China's export hub, have long lived with wage inflation: minimum monthly wages have more than doubled since 2001. But this bout of activism looks different. The slow-burn effects of China's one-child policy, now 31 years old, have caused the population of 20 to 39-year-olds – the deepest pool of manufacturing labour – to shrink by more than a fifth over the past decade. Meanwhile, vast stimulus spending has shielded the economy from the worst effects of the export slump: aggregate figures show net job creation between September and March of just over 2 per cent. Together, those effects have pushed the ratio of labour supply to demand below equilibrium for the first time, according to researcher CEIC. Factory wages were already showing double-digit increases over 2009 levels before a new batch of minimum wages – Guangdong is one of seven provinces to raise its mandatory rate in recent weeks – provided a new floor.

Moreover, this is happening with the tacit encouragement of economic planners. If China is remotely serious about rebalancing the economy towards consumption and away from exports, then raising real wages in the export heartland is the right way to go about it. If that stokes broader inflation, then policymakers have remedial actions – removing the dollar peg, for instance – in reserve. Manufacturers had better brace for higher settlements and slimmer margins.

有“无烟工厂”之称的中国农民工，终于冒出了一些火花。日本本田(Honda)似乎结束了其广东部件厂为期两周的罢工，提高基本工资近25%。还有全球最大的电子产品代工制造商——台湾的富士康(Foxconn)，其深圳工厂园区明显的员工连环自杀，促使管理层为员工加薪30%。由于加班工资一般按照基本工资的某个百分比计算，因此实际加薪幅度更大。

长期以来，中国出口重地——珠江三角洲的制造商一直忍受着薪资上涨：自2001年以来，最低月薪已上涨逾一倍。但这一波劳工行动看上去有所不同。过去10年期间，中国实行了31年之久的独生子女政策的滞后效应，导致20岁至39岁年龄段人口减少逾五分之一，这部分人口是制造业劳动力的中坚力量。与此同时，大规模刺激支出使得中国经济没有受到出口滑坡的最严重影响：累计数据显示，去年9月至今年3月的净就业创造略高于2%。研究机构香港环亚经济数据公司(CEIC)的数据显示，这些效应相互结合，令劳动力供求比率首次出现不平衡。在执行新的最低工资之前，制造业工资已较2009年水平出现两位数涨幅。广东是最近几周提高最低工资标准的7个省份之一。

另外，这得到了经济规划者的默许。如果中国对经济再平衡（减轻对出口依赖，转向消费）有一丝认真，那么提高出口重地的实际工资就是正确道路。如果这引发了更广泛的通胀，政策制定者还有补救措施：取消盯住美元的汇率制度。制造商应做好准备，迎接更高的薪资要求和更低的利润率。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/梁艳裳