【英语中国】中国农行上市前景不明

Bank of China launched a Rmb40bn ($5.9bn) convertible bond sale yesterday amid official concern that a flood of fundraising by the country's largest banks could hinder next month's high-profile initial public offering by Agricultural Bank of China.

Agricultural Bank is planning to raise as much as $30bn in mid-July in a Hong Kong and Shanghai IPO that would be the world's largest, but falling stock markets and huge capital raising plans at other banks are casting a shadow over the long-delayed listing.

China's largest banks have announced plans in recent months to raise tens of billions of dollars to meet stricter regulatory requirements and replenish capital after a record lending spree last year.

That is putting additional pressure on the markets, particularly in Shanghai, where the benchmark index is down more than 22 per cent this year.

The Agricultural Bank IPO is supposed to mark the triumphant end of a decade-long government bank bail-out programme, but Chinese financial and regulatory officials are now worried about market sentiment and are scrambling to ensure the listing is a success, according to analysts and bankers close to the listing.

Beijing has lined up the country's national pension fund to inject Rmb15bn into the bank ahead of its IPO, and has also enlisted large state-owned companies such as PetroChina as cornerstone subscribers.

Late last month, the government introduced favourable tax incentives for some of the bank's operations and in recent weeks the securities regulator has approved a crop of new mutual funds that are expected to be big subscribers to the IPO.

“The regulators will definitely provide policy support, including through the recent approval of new mutual funds,” said Li Shanshan, an analyst at Bank of Communications International. “The regulators are quite concerned and are trying their best to stabilise the market.”

Chinese regulators are also pressing big foreign banks and investors to subscribe to the listing. Meanwhile, China Construction Bank, the world's second-largest lender by market value, has said it may delay its planned $11bn capital-raising until next year due to market uncertainty.

According to Chinese media reports, several Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are interested in investing up to $1bn each in the Agricultural Bank IPO through their sovereign wealth funds.

In spite of Beijing's efforts, Agricultural Bank may still have to scale back the IPO if market conditions remain volatile, Chinese state media reported. But even if it raised less than planned, analysts said the listing was almost certain to happen on schedule as the government could easily enlist more state enterprises and the appetite for Chinese bank shares remained strong.

中国银行(Bank of China)昨日启动400亿元人民币（合59亿美元）的可转债发行。目前中国官方担心，近期中国各大银行接二连三的筹资活动，可能妨碍下月中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)令人瞩目的首次公开发行(IPO)。

农行计划7月中旬在香港和上海两地上市，筹资额有望高达300亿美元，成为全球最大IPO。但是，不断下跌的股市，加上其它银行的庞大筹资计划，给农行推迟已久的上市蒙上了阴影。

近月来，中国各大银行都已宣布计划，要筹集数百亿美元资金，以满足更严格的监管要求，并在去年掀起创纪录的放贷热潮后充实自己的资本金。

这给市场带来了额外压力，尤其是在上海股市，基准的上证综指今年已累计下滑逾22%。

农行上市，有望成为为期十年之久的政府纾困银行计划胜利结束的标志，但据了解上市操作的分析师和银行家表示，中国金融和监管官员现在对市场人气感到担心，正忙于确保此次上市成功。

农行上市前夕，北京方面安排中国的全国社保基金向该行注资150亿元人民币，并安排中国石油(PetroChina)等大型国有企业充当基石认购方。

上月下旬，政府出台了适用于农行某些业务的优惠税收激励政策。同时，证券监管机构近几周来批准了一批新的共同基金，预期这些基金将在农行上市中大量认购。

“监管机构肯定将提供政策支持，包括通过近期批准的几只新共同基金，”交银国际(Bank of Communications International)分析师李珊珊表示。“监管机构相当担忧，正在尽自己的最大努力稳定市场。”

中国监管机构还在敦促大型外资银行和投资机构认购农行上市。与此同时，按市值计算为全球第二大银行的中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)表示，由于市场不确定性，它可能把原计划的110亿美元筹资推迟到明年。

据中国媒体报道，数个中东国家，包括科威特和阿联酋，有兴趣通过各自的主权财富基金，在农行上市中分别投入至多10亿美元。

尽管北京方面付出了种种努力，但据中国官方媒体报道，如果市场状况仍然动荡，农行也许还是要缩减上市规模。但分析师们表示，即便筹资额低于原计划，此次上市也几乎肯定会如期推进，因为政府很容易安排更多国有企业参与认购，而且市场对中国银行类股票的胃口仍很大。

译者/和风