【英语中国】中国油气企业的喜忧

China is raising domestic onshore natural gas prices as well as lowering domestic fuel prices. According to Dow Jones Market Talk, PetroChina's Kunlun unit and Sinopec stand to gain, and lose from those moves.

PetroChina unit Kunlun Energy is set to benefit most from news that China will raise domestic onshore natural gas benchmark prices by 25% from Tuesday. The move is part of long-touted reforms aimed at encouraging more efficient use of fuel. China had been charging natural gas prices at much lower rates compared with other fuels, in a bid to keep households' living costs in check. But this led to soaring demand particularly from the industrial sector, caused severe supply shortages. PetroChina is the mainland's largest gas supplier, and Kunlun is PetroChina's city gas distribution arm. Still, part of the gains of higher natural gas prices likely will be offset by the implementation of a resources tax, piloted in Xinjiang. Yesterday, PetroChina ended 0.5% higher at HK$8.53 yesterday, while Kunlun was up 1.1% at HK$10.72.

China is also lowering domestic fuel prices due to falling crude prices, a move that could lead to a fall for shares of China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec. China said it will cut gasoline prices by 230 yuan a ton, and diesel prices by 220 yuan a ton effective Tuesday. The changes represent cuts of about 2.8% and 2.9% below current average gasoline and diesel retail ceiling benchmarks, respectively, based on calculations by Dow Jones. Daiwa notes while timing of price reductions is slightly earlier than expected, they believe price cuts are already in the company's share price, as the market is likely to have factored in conservative gross-refining margin of US$5/barrel for FY10, expects year-to-date GRM at about US$4.5/barrel. 'We think the profitability (of Sinopec) may be restored in July and August, when the cheaper US$70/barrel crude feedstock starts to be refined, and by then we forecast the GRM to expand to US$6/barrrel-US$7/barrel (if domestic product prices are unchanged).' Daiwa keeps Sinopec at outperform, targets HK$8.10. The stock ended down 0.6% at HK$6.19 yesterday.

中国正在上调国产陆上天然气的价格、降低国内成品油价格。据道琼斯市场快讯(Dow Jones Market Talk)称，这两项价格变动对中国石油(PetroChina)旗下子公司昆仑能源(Kunlun Energy)及中国石化(Sinopec)来说可谓一喜一忧。

中国宣布从周二起将把国产陆上天然气的基准价上调25%，昆仑能源将从此举中受益最大。此次调价是中国宣传了很久的一项能源领域改革措施，此类改革旨在提高燃料的使用效率。相对于其他燃料，中国对天然气的价格定得并不高，这样做是为了控制居民家庭的生活成本。但此举却导致国内天然气的需求大幅飙升，特别是来自工业领域的需求，从而引发了严重的天然气供应短缺。中国石油是中国最大的天然气供应商，而昆仑能源则是中国石油的城市天然气分销机构。不过，国产天然气提价带来的收益一定程度上有可能被开征资源税所抵消，中国已在新疆开始了资源税试点工作。中国石油在香港上市的股票周一收盘上涨0.5%，收于8.53港元，而昆仑能源的股价则上涨1.1%，收于10.72港元。

由于原油价格下跌，中国也在降低国内成品油价格，此举有可能导致中国石化的股价下跌。中国宣布，从周二起将把汽油和柴油价格每吨分别下调人民币230元和人民币220元。据道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)计算，这意味着目前为每吨人民币8,220元和每吨人民币7,480元的汽油及柴油零售基准价将分别下调2.8%和2.9%左右。大和证券(Daiwa)指出，虽然此次降价行动出台的时间略早于预期，但他们认为降价因素已经反映在中国石化的股价中，因为市场预计已消化了该公司2010财年炼油业务的毛利润只有每桶5美元这一因素，市场预计中国石化今年迄今为止的这一毛利润为每桶4.5美元。大和说，我们认为中国石化的盈利水平可能会在今年7月和8月份得以恢复，届时该公司将开始提炼那些以每桶70美元这一较低价格购进的原油，到那时我们预计中国石化炼油业务的毛利润将提高到每桶6至7美元(如果国内成品油价格保持不变的话)。大和仍将中国石化的股票评级定为强于大盘，将该股的目标价定为每桶8.10美元。中国石化在香港上市的股票周一收盘下跌0.6%，收于6.19美元。