【英语中国】中国钱包可能压低大宗商品价格

双语秀   2016-05-14 19:20   95   0  

2010-6-2 21:44

小艾摘要: It is rarely a good idea to become too reliant on one customer. Especially when they are trying to build a rival supply business of their own.China accounts for 36% or more of global demand for metals ...
It is rarely a good idea to become too reliant on one customer. Especially when they are trying to build a rival supply business of their own.

China accounts for 36% or more of global demand for metals like copper, aluminum and zinc, says Barclays Capital. Its share of oil consumption is 11%, but it is easily the biggest source of demand growth.

One big risk with a key customer is that its appetite wanes. Another, less obvious one with China is its effect on the supply side. Its approach to dealing with a raw material shortage is 'to throw money at it,' says Jennifer Richmond at global intelligence firm Stratfor. Chinese companies have spent $79.6 billion buying foreign natural-resources producers since the start of 2008, according to Dealogic. Beijing also has struck deals from Russia to Africa offering loans and infrastructure development in exchange for minerals.

China reckons its sheer size means it 'should be given a discount' on raw-materials, says economist Phil Verleger. Diversifying suppliers, by financing new fields, mines and pipelines is a strategy for getting these. It doesn't always work: China's tortured attempts to wrest discounts from iron-ore suppliers have yielded little thus far.

But throw enough money at new supply, and deflationary pressure on prices increases: Investors in growth-obsessed U.S. natural-gas companies can relate. Metals like aluminum have become vulnerable to Chinese surplus production capacity. Oil is vulnerable if Chinese capital opens up resource-rich areas like Iraq to raise supply.

Willing to prioritize strategic concerns over economic returns and open to dealing with pariah regimes, China's wallet could yet spell trouble for commodities bulls.
过于依赖一个客户通常不是个好主意。特别是当客户试图建立一个自己的、与你形成竞争的供应业务的时候。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)说,中国占全球铜、铝和锌等金属需求的36%甚至更多。中国的石油消耗占全球的11%,不过却无疑是需求增长的最大来源。

依靠一个重要客户的一大风险是这个客户的需求会下滑。另外一个在中国不那么明显的风险是对供方产生的作用。全球情报公司Stratfor的里士满(Jennifer Richmond)说,中国应对原材料短缺的方法是“往里扔钱”。据Dealogic的数据,自2008年初以来,中资企业已经在收购外国自然资源生产商上花费了796亿美元。中国政府还与从俄罗斯到非洲等很多国家和地区达成了交易,向它们提供贷款和基础设施开发项目,以换取矿物。

经济学家费勒格(Phil Verleger)说,中国认为,它庞大的购买规模意味着应该可以在原材料上拿到折扣。通过为新的领域、矿山和管道提供资金而使供应商多样化是拿到较低价格的一个战略。不过这个方法并非总是有效:目前为止,中国试图从铁矿石供应商获得折扣的痛苦尝试没有获得什么结果。

不过,在新的供应上扔足够的钱,会增大价格下滑的压力:沉溺于寻求增长的美国天然气公司的投资者就是很好的例子。在中国过剩的产能面前,铝等金属脆弱不堪。如果中国资本令伊拉克等资源丰富的地区增加供应,石油也会受到冲击。

中国情愿把战略问题的重要性排在经济回报之前,对与无赖政府打交道持开放态度,这样中国的钱包对大宗商品的涨势来说,可能预示着麻烦。
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